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#1
03-03-2007, 05:29 AM
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Gulfstream, Saturday 3-3
After taking a week off from sheet reading, I'm back "screaming for vengeance"...
Race 1: Tough race with 4 major contenders for the win spot; the most interesting/best price may be 5 Gold Native, very good dirt form, switches back to turf, solid spacing.. if dirt form holds, he may be a nice play. 2 Tissy Fit shows a strong line, but comes back a bit quickly (12 days), 3 Privy Seal shows a TG 2 on the turf last year, ran a 3 (dirt) 3 weeks ago...7 Everything to gain is the most consistent, with solid spacing. Race 2: four fast ones in here, three are probable favorites, 3 Running Hot, 8-1 ML, coming off a troubled TG 8 should be value...4 True Competitor and 5 Marchfield are both fast, as is 9 Vamanos (how this Pletcher horse runs may be a telling sign for the rest of the day) 2 Lemon Custard, longest shot ML, comes in slower than most, but has a great pattern and may hit the board. Race 3: Very tough allowance race, many good horses will not be hitting the board in this one; 1 Rescue Party, only third start, but last was GREAT (TG 6), a repeat WINS...4 Boogie Boggs ran a "buried" 7 with a poor start, dangerous..9 I aint no saint, solid line, could hit the board at a nice price..10 Frosty Secret and 11 Deadly Dealer, both fast, but taking a stand against for a variety of reasons. Race 4: Maiden race with many firsters, of those that have run, 11 Local Celebrity, ran against the bias in debut (chances are he'll be doing that again today), loomed large at top of stretch but went "green" finishing 3rd, should improve today; 3 Greeley's Angel can improve as well 2nd out..6 Rock Pulpit's first 2 were both TG 11's, dangerous..out of the firsters, 1 Betterincludeme, the name says it all, and the 2 Mr Sidney was a $4 million purchase for Kimmel.. Shug's firster 6 Perusal seems to be bred for turf (what I know about breeding could fit in a thimble  ).Race 5: This allowance race comes up extremely tough, some of these may end up on "Derby Trail", 1 For You Reppo, gets the rail, improves every start, strong!.. 3 Chelokee ran very respectably 1st out off layoff in last, can improve on that.. 2 Highest Degree was my longshot special in his last based on TG pattern, I was right, he exploded with a 5 point top, however that only got him 3rd (and got me ZILCH), I heard Gus loves him, I only like him today...6 Sacrifice Bunt and 7 Silver Express both come in with nice lines, and 10 Sightseeing might end up being the best of the bunch, but comes back a bit quickly for my taste (although the post is a much bigger problem for me). Race 6: start of the Stakes parade and the TG ROTW, although financially it has been a bad idea, I agree with the TG analysis, 1 Hesanoldsalt's last 2 have been Neg's, inside post may offset a "bounce"... 6 AP Arrow ran a Neg # at 4 (2nd time Pletch), runs 2nd off the layoff today after a zero (and should have gotten second to Invasor last out, but that's another story)..taking a stand against 3 Corinthian, coming back quickly after running neg #, should react to that effort. Race 7: 1 Forefathers, ran a TG 3 in second start at 2, came right back to it in last (first start at 3), this is a very healthy thing to do, should be very tough in here...5 Reata's Rocket, anyone who heard Joe Orseno on ATRAB knows about this one.. 2 of the 3 Pletcher horses are very dangerous, 8 King of Roxy, shows classic 0-2-X pattern, comes back off the layoff, and 9 Out of Gwedda has a similar pattern to Forefathers, starting out with a TG 5 at 2, then returning to it 1st out as a 3 year old (this normally means 7 Air Lord should win by 10 ).. 3 Storm in May jumped up in last with 3pt top (4), may react to that today.Race 8: a nice respit from the Stakes races, a 5 furlong turf race, I see 8 major contenders, but will narrow it down to: 1 Dead Red, a different horse on turf, his last, a TG 7 is fastest in here, gets the rail... 4 Two deals pending, solid, runs 3rd off the layoff for Ryerson...7 Castle Concert has a great TG pattern leading to this, nice spacing coming off a small backwards move in last.. either of the 2 ML favorites, 8 Sir Silver Fox, and 9 Truehart are fast enough to win.. 11 Formal Appeal is very interesting, first off layoff, first Plesa, first Turf, WATCH OUT! Race 9: another contentious race with many possible winners, but I will focus on the 1, Slam Bammy (another Orseno spoke about yesterday) and the 9 Mach Ride, his last was TG zero, now makes 2nd start as a 4 year old, should be storming home late... missed what Romans had to say about the 3 Bright one, certainly contends on his best. Race 10: The BIG one, obviously 5 NoBiz is the one to beat, has run 4 races, TG 2, 3, 2, and 2.. this could be the day he explodes through the 2 barrier? 3 Drums of Thunder, has great TG forward moving pattern, getting better with every start..9 Adore the Gold, outside post and stretchout are problems, last was a small backwards move on TG, which isn't bad...8 Scat Daddy, others have debated his merits at length.. longshot special, perhaps is the 6 Meritocracy, one of the slowest coming in, but a great TG pattern and may be ready to run a big one!(of course that big one might still only get him 4th or 5th). Race 11: Finally the last race, I'm already exhausted and it's only 6:15am! 3 Tale of Treasure may be the best bet of the day, fastest coming in, great spacing, doesn't need to improve to win, but still should...1 Western Bluff, similar to the 3, but a bit slower...8 Dug In, is as fast as the top 2 selections, but comes off a "stinker" on the wet dirt, if you can dismiss that, he has a big shot... the 2 outside firsters 11 Strong Speed, and 12 Riverwalk Jazz, both could be dangerous (but I reference back to my breeding knowledge line from earlier) Good luck as always, looking forward to the show and the races!! 
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#2
03-03-2007, 08:17 AM
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1st) 7/6/3 my second pick could be dangerous @ $$$
2nd) 4/5/1 interested to see Southernconference stretching out 3rd) 1/11/4 stakes next for the 1 after today 4th) 2/5/11 watch the board on the regally bred 2 5th) 3/10/1 Fountain of Youth II ??? 6th) 3/1/6 does Cor have another one like his last? wire to wire 7th) 1/8/9 three horse race 8th) 7/9/8 wide open event 9th) 7/4/9 look for the 4 flying late to get a piece @ $$$ 10th) 4/5/3 trying to "beat the biz" 11th) 8/3/9 any money left for this???
__________________
"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#3
03-03-2007, 09:44 AM
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im guessing you wont have much left for that last race....
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#4
03-03-2007, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
If Hoff gets down after 6 races or so, he can always chase it with a $50 pick-3 at the OTB and then come home and watch the rest of the races.
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#5
03-03-2007, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
I'll be watching all the races @ home, if the wife doesn't have plans! 
__________________
"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#7
03-03-2007, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
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#10
03-03-2007, 12:28 PM
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I like Stalwart Woodsman in the second.
$4wp (Hey it's a 3 year old maiden in march..I really shouldn't wager anything on this race.)
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#12
03-03-2007, 01:40 PM
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Golfer, I hope that you used your own picks, especially the #1 Betterincludeme, in your 4th race. A fine exacta, and trifecta, very fine.
I had the 8 to win, but didn't use the 1. With Pletcher, I should know better, I don't care if its "by nothing, out of nothing." It will be ready on raceday.
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#13
03-03-2007, 01:56 PM
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Race 5
For You Reppo $20 w
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#14
03-03-2007, 02:01 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#15
03-03-2007, 02:04 PM
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Quote:
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#16
03-03-2007, 03:24 PM
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Race 8
$10wp Premier Event
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#17
03-03-2007, 03:29 PM
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Why do I continue betting this god damn track. WHY?
Gate to ****ing wire 35-1 shot and my horse had the perfect stalking trip and had NOTHING down the stretch. WTF do I need to do to win a ****ing race at that god damn souped up highway shithole austrain owned ****stick racino? May can't get here any sooner.
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#18
03-03-2007, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
__________________
 Seek respect, not attention.
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#19
03-03-2007, 05:56 PM
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Race 2: four fast ones in here, three are probable favorites, 3 Running Hot, 8-1 ML, coming off a troubled TG 8 should be value...4 True Competitor and 5 Marchfield are both fast, as is 9 Vamanos (how this Pletcher horse runs may be a telling sign for the rest of the day)
If you guys don't mind, I would now like to change my picks based on that last sentence 
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