Nobizlikeshowbiz......

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I think so too, looks like things could really set up for him if Nobiz isn't the horse he is made out to be. I'm wondering what they will decide to do with Adore the Gold, nice horse, but is he going to be sent in hopes of getting a good position early on, in such case adding to Stormello and others?

The questions about NoBiz are will he move forward, will he race a bit more professionally in the stretch? So far its like he wins on his immense talent alone, but he hasn't looked to me like he has moved forward off of his races yet. They've all kinda been the same to me. Maybe Saturday will be the day. He could still win even if he just performs like he has, but what I would love to see is how good this guy could be if he grows up a bit and gets serious down the lane. I still see him as having the most talent of the group so far.

Drums of Thunder seems to have underwent a nice imporvement in form since he has been stretched out, and with another small move forward could be competetive with NoBiz.

I think there are no good options for Adore the Gold. They most likely will have to send him but I don't think it will matter. I don't see him around at the finish whether they send him or rate him. This is going to be a real 2 turn acid test for him.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

The questions about NoBiz are will he move forward, will he race a bit more professionally in the stretch? So far its like he wins on his immense talent alone, but he hasn't looked to me like he has moved forward off of his races yet. They've all kinda been the same to me. Maybe Saturday will be the day. He could still win even if he just performs like he has, but what I would love to see is how good this guy could be if he grows up a bit and gets serious down the lane. I still see him as having the most talent of the group so far.

Drums of Thunder seems to have underwent a nice imporvement in form since he has been stretched out, and with another small move forward could be competetive with NoBiz.

I think there are no good options for Adore the Gold. They most likely will have to send him but I don't think it will matter. I don't see him around at the finish whether they send him or rate him. This is going to be a real 2 turn acid test for him.

We are in pretty much complete agreement on Nobiz.

What do you think of Boutrous in the Lewis? After reading the comments in the DRF it sounded like his trip was dreadfully awful, but when watching the replay last night, while he didn't get free run until the winner was well on his way I didn't think it was that awful of a trip that he would have been the winner with better. I'm picking up PP's after work today so I have no idea what sort of figures he had before and earned. I also noticed French Transition is in the race...last I saw him I think was the Breeder's Futurity, has he done anything sense? I'm very fond of Great Hunter and hope all of that foundation as a two year old puts him in the right direction.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

We are in pretty much complete agreement on Nobiz.

What do you think of Boutrous in the Lewis? After reading the comments in the DRF it sounded like his trip was dreadfully awful, but when watching the replay last night, while he didn't get free run until the winner was well on his way I didn't think it was that awful of a trip that he would have been the winner with better. I'm picking up PP's after work today so I have no idea what sort of figures he had before and earned. I also noticed French Transition is in the race...last I saw him I think was the Breeder's Futurity, has he done anything sense? I'm very fond of Great Hunter and hope all of that foundation as a two year old puts him in the right direction.

Not having seen the replay of the Boutrous race, on paper it looks like whatever trouble he had will not factor into his chances tomorrow. Figurewise? Great Hunters worst race is better than Boutrous's best race.

However, I hate betting a lowpriced favorite returning off of a long layoff in a race that they absolutely do not have to win and when the real target is a few months down the road. On paper Great Hunter wins this easy but under these circumstances I sometimes look for an upset by some up and comer who really needs the race and has more recent form. For example in this race I might look at horses like Tiago, Hurry Up Austin, or Sam P. If Great Hunter isn't quite ready or doesn't like SA for some reason you could catch a potentially huge payoff.

French Transition broke his maiden Feb 1st, with a rather uninspiring figure. Don't see him up to the task yet.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So far its like he wins on his immense talent alone, but he hasn't looked to me like he has moved forward off of his races yet. They've all kinda been the same to me.

I agree with you on this, and if he was handled by a trainer that I didn't have of a ton of confidence in, I would be very hesitant to play him on Saturday. However, I think a lot of Tagg, and when you combine him with Nobiz's obvious talent, I think the colt might give you that big professional race you have been looking for.
Drums of Thunder is a very interesting pick, but I fear he may be wise-guyed down to odds that don't really suit his chances.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree with you on this, and if he was handled by a trainer that I didn't have of a ton of confidence in, I would be very hesitant to play him on Saturday. However, I think a lot of Tagg, and when you combine him with Nobiz's obvious talent, I think the colt might give you that big professional race you have been looking for.
Drums of Thunder is a very interesting pick, but I fear he may be wise-guyed down to odds that don't really suit his chances.

I agree on both points, I have immense respect for Tagg and I just think we're going to see maybe a bit of a breakout performance this week from NoBiz.

Drums of Thunder has been getting some mentions now and his odds may not be appealing. I would still think though that if you like his chances of upsetting this field that you could hook him up in multi-race wagers and get a pretty nice return.

I made my first Derby Future bet this year. I put bets on two horses Drums of Thunder at 41:1 and Zanjero at even larger odds.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agree on both points, I have immense respect for Tagg and I just think we're going to see maybe a bit of a breakout performance this week from NoBiz.

Drums of Thunder has been getting some mentions now and his odds may not be appealing. I would still think though that if you like his chances of upsetting this field that you could hook him up in multi-race wagers and get a pretty nice return.

I made my first Derby Future bet this year. I put bets on two horses Drums of Thunder at 41:1 and Zanjero at even larger odds.

At 41/1 I think that is a pretty good play. He has looked pretty solid, and his old man was a stakes winner at 10f (and a consistent 9f horse). I think he may be overbet on Saturday by people trying to beat Nobiz, but he certainly looks like he could be a Derby horse.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I made my first Derby Future bet this year. I put bets on two horses Drums of Thunder at 41:1 and Zanjero at even larger odds.

fyi, CRIS (now BookMaker.com) has Drums of Thunder at 60-1. It's odds on Zanjero are poor, though.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

fyi, CRIS (now BookMaker.com) has Drums of Thunder at 60-1. It's odds on Zanjero are poor, though.

--Dunbar

Really? I just made a couple of token bets for fun and something to talk about. Out of curiosity, what are the Zanjero odds?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Really? I just made a couple of token bets for fun and something to talk about. Out of curiosity, what are the Zanjero odds?

I actually thought Adore The Gold's 33-1 in the Future Wager was good enough to bet. (I may well think differently tomorrow afternoon.) A couple days later I saw that he was 100-1 at CRIS! I felt fairly foolish. I should have stuck with just the "All others" bet, which was the one I was/am most confident in anyway.

Zanjero is now 35-1. Adore The Gold is also now 35-1, but was 83-1 a day or two ago when I posted about it here.

There are still some big prices if you like the horse: CP West is 85-1; Forty Grams 170-1; Storm In May 90-1; Twilight Meteor 125-1; BirdBirdIsTheWord 65-1; Imawildandcrazyguy 90-1; Ketchican 75-1.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I actually thought Adore The Gold's 33-1 in the Future Wager was good enough to bet. (I may well think differently tomorrow afternoon.) A couple days later I saw that he was 100-1 at CRIS! I felt fairly foolish. I should have stuck with just the "All others" bet, which was the one I was/am most confident in anyway.

Zanjero is now 35-1. Adore The Gold is also now 35-1, but was 83-1 a day or two ago when I posted about it here.

There are still some big prices if you like the horse: CP West is 85-1; Forty Grams 170-1; Storm In May 90-1; Twilight Meteor 125-1; BirdBirdIsTheWord 65-1; Imawildandcrazyguy 90-1; Ketchican 75-1.

--Dunbar

I think my future on Zanjero is at 56 to 1. Which doesn't seem that great. Actually I don't like any of the ones you mentioned either including adore the Gold. Your all/others idea was probably the best bet.