Noble Stella tommorow?

[Gander]

She isnt my top selection on the turf by any means. I just think her chances increase if it stays on. No shot on the dirt in my opinion.

I agree with everything you said, she isnt going to make an easy lead, in fact she may not even be on the lead at all. She ran her race last time at 14/1 and even that wasnt good enough.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yes, last time was the time ( not that I liked her ), and tomorrow is for the guppies.

[Pedigree Ann]

Dynamite Lass won't be on the pace - that one race where she led all the way had another very slow pace. This year she has been more effective closing from midpack.

Actually, Noble Stella's best races last year were when she didn't have to set a pokey pace but was able to come from midpack. She is one-paced and that lands her on the lead if nobody wants the lead but behind when there is someone faster in the race.

[Downthestretch55]

Agree P Anne, the last furlong is where it will be decided.
And, I'll stick with DL here.
We'll see.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Dynamite Lass won't be on the pace - that one race where she led all the way had another very slow pace. This year she has been more effective closing from midpack.

Actually, Noble Stella's best races last year were when she didn't have to set a pokey pace but was able to come from midpack. She is one-paced and that lands her on the lead if nobody wants the lead but behind when there is someone faster in the race.

You're right, Noble Stella's best races last year were from behind. However, those races would not be good enough to contend with the likes of Angara and Asi Siempre. The simple fact is that the best race she ever ran was last time when she loafed on the lead. She is not going to be able to beat both of those horses tomorrow without a crawling lead.

I am also well aware that Dynamite Lass is not technically a speed horse. I understand full well the situation that led to her front running victory at Saratoga. However, when she defeated Noble Stella on March 4th, she was actually ahead of that rival through the first half mile ( prior to Bejarano losing contact with the field ), so should another paceless scenerio develop, it is hardly a stretch to suggest that Dynamite Lass COULD join, or even lead, Noble Stella on the front end.

I was hardly declaring either one of these horses as speed horses, but in a paceless race, having enough speed to dictate can obviously enhance one's chances. Being that every trainer, and even jockey, is aware of what happened in the Sheepshead Bay, just as Frankel and Prado were aware of English Channel's potential pace advantage in the Manhattan when they decided to send Cacique to the lead, it is highly unlikely a scenerio such as what happened in that race will occur once again. For that reason it does not appear likely that Noble Stella can win. And, as was pointed out earlier, she will be nowhere near the 14-1 she was previously, so it is hard to make a case that she is a good bet tomorrow.

[Pedigree Ann]

If the odds are your determining point, I cannot argue. Charmsil is the filly who has run consistently at 48 sec or so on the lead so it seems likeliest that she will get the lead without any effort, a couple of lengths clear maybe. That's why she looks a live longshot, since 10f is not beyond her scope.

Sorry if I seemed to be dismissive of your expertise.

[JJP]

Did it rain overnight in New York? I checked weather.com and it said it wasn't currently raining. I know one thing: weather forecasters are notorious for predicting rain too much.