Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

Oops, thanks for the correction, Phil. I forgot about the stampede.

--Dunbar

[lemoncrush]

Futures bets is a sucker bet, or a gimmick bet, but I still enjoy making some every year. I know all the disadvantages of making them, but I still consider it "entertainment money" when making a few wagers in Vegas on possibe Derby contenders.
It's more of something fun to do, rather than something where you're only enjoyment is a positive ROI.
I made the following bets in NOV. and DEC. this year (and one in January).
I try to only take a horse that's over 50-1, knowing I could probably get 15-30-1 on a horse with an equal chance of winning on Derby day.
Notional 75-1
Sam P 125-1
Dilemma 75-1
Any Given Saturday 40-1
Officer Rocket 150-1
Mercantile 150-1
Day Pass 60-1
Great Hunter 40-1
EZ Warrior 60-1
Les Grand Trios 75-1
Came to Pass 100-1
At $10 each, that's $110 I'll probably never see again. But it's still fun to follow the horses the next couple months, and hopefully, have a few on Derby day that would cash big if I win.

[Scav]

Keep in mind that this year, because of internet ban, these pools should grow tremendously......not a huge fan of it but I might throw a couple wagers down on it