Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[coltsfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm pretty sure you can bet it at most tracks and OTB's but don't quote me on that.

Thanks, I never really have thought much about the futures, but if I can bet them at the track, I might give it a shot.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

Oops, thanks for the correction, Phil. I forgot about the stampede.

--Dunbar

[lemoncrush]

Futures bets is a sucker bet, or a gimmick bet, but I still enjoy making some every year. I know all the disadvantages of making them, but I still consider it "entertainment money" when making a few wagers in Vegas on possibe Derby contenders.
It's more of something fun to do, rather than something where you're only enjoyment is a positive ROI.
I made the following bets in NOV. and DEC. this year (and one in January).
I try to only take a horse that's over 50-1, knowing I could probably get 15-30-1 on a horse with an equal chance of winning on Derby day.
Notional 75-1
Sam P 125-1
Dilemma 75-1
Any Given Saturday 40-1
Officer Rocket 150-1
Mercantile 150-1
Day Pass 60-1
Great Hunter 40-1
EZ Warrior 60-1
Les Grand Trios 75-1
Came to Pass 100-1
At $10 each, that's $110 I'll probably never see again. But it's still fun to follow the horses the next couple months, and hopefully, have a few on Derby day that would cash big if I win.

[Scav]

Keep in mind that this year, because of internet ban, these pools should grow tremendously......not a huge fan of it but I might throw a couple wagers down on it

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).

Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.

--Dunbar

My husband was all over Fusaichi Pegasus in an early pool and the horse was double-digit odds at the time. It was our ONLY good future bet ever. Most of ours never even make the race, whether it is the Derby/Oaks or a BC race. I think it is a bad bet. I am really tempted to bet Ravel(Fupeg/Grade I winning A.P. Indy mare Let by A.P. Indy). I shall stop myself, however.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).

Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.

A crude way to use these figs would be to simply discount the future odds by the estimate of the horse not making it to the starting gate. You'd discount the favs' odds by 40%; the longshots' odds by 60-70%. So, if a horse looks like it's going to be 10-1 in the future pool, it would be the very rough equivalent of 6-1 on Derby day. A 50-1 longshot discounted 70% would be worth 15-1 on Derby day. That would just give you a ballpark way of accounting for the chance your horse would not start. It also helps keep us from getting overly excited by 30-1 or 50-1.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

These current odds are about as useful as morning line odds. Just dont want anyone to get their hopes up. 7K bet, by Sunday at 6pm, there will be over 100K in this pool, so these arent exactly a good barometer. Most people will wait until Sunday to bet.

[slotdirt]

There'll be a lot more than 100k in this pool.

[Gander]

Ya I was just going to write that. Wow, these odds are changing faster than even I thought they would. Maybe like 500K?

Very enticing not to waste money at the track this weekend, rather just bet on this and pretend I lost a normal race like I do every weekend!