Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's parimutual, Sniper. I doubt you'll be seeing 30-1 on Great Hunter.

Tell me why you think betting the future pool is "foolish".

--Dunbar

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I just don't think betting future pools are the best wagers to be making. Not only is there a strong chance that you will lose the wager because your horse doesn't even run in the Derby (which to me takes away the fun of wagering) but you are also giving up your money for more than 3 months when you could be making interest on it. I need instant gratification from my betting dollar. To each their own though. It may be parimutual but what is the takeout?

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

Factoring in the chance that a horse doesn't start is just one more variable, and it's one that I can probably estimate better than the casual bettor. Therefore, it's one more way I have an edge over the casual bettor.

Your comment about "giving up your money for more than 3 months" is a good argument. If you have to make a choice between a good bet going off today and a future bet with the same edge, than the future bet has to take a back seat. However, if your future bet is competing with bank interest, then it doesn't have to be all that good. You will make less than 1.5% on your money with bank interest between now and the Derby. If your future bet has a 3% edge, it's better than bank interest.

I am reasonably certain that one of the highest EV bets I made last year was in Future Pool 1.

btw, I'd certainly agree that most of the entries are bad bets. Anytime someone is taking 16% out of the pool, most or all of the entries are going to be bad bets.

--Dunbar

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

It's a lot of fun....doesn't hurt to put a deuce on a horse or two
just gotta find your spots...the field is only appealling in the last pool
when the odds are best. Dreaming of Anna is a play against...doubt she'll face the boys. Don't care for Scat Daddy either off his Holy Bull and he may haved peaked last year. Interesting runners in my opinion are; Any Given Saturday, Day Pass and Ravel. Will probably play those three in the first pool.

[slotdirt]

Hard Spun at 20-1 isn't value?

[AeWingnut]

I'm getting to the threads late today but.. just for betting purposes

you can eliminate all without a three sylable name and eliminate Scat Daddy
pletcher is not worth a bet.

I bet Bluegrass Cat in the future pool last year

sigh

he was a heck of a lot beter bet to place on race day than to win in the future pool

Fu Peg was great future bet

What I want is the future pool for the Derby on two year olds. i read a while back that some guy got great odds on Silver Charm to win it all

[hockey2315]

I'm gonna put a few bucks on Any Given Saturday if he stays at that price. . . huge overlay in my opinion. . .

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Are you serious about the "instant gratification"? The only "fun of wagering" for me is winning. Losing a race by my horse finishing second isn't any more fun for me than losing a race by my horse not starting (from a future bet).

--Dunbar

I enjoy the race when I have a betting interest. Even if my horse doesn't win I still get excited when it comes off the turn and either is in front and I'm hoping it holds on or is off the pace and I'm hoping it will fire. So if I'm going to lose a bet I'd much prefer it be that way where I at least get that moment of excitement as opposed to picking up a DRF and seeing the horse I bet was injured and off the Derby trail.

[coltsfan]

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

[peddler]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

Capital OTB allows you to bet at the parlors themselves

Originally Posted by SilverRP

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

A little more info for you:

There will be 3 chances to bet on the Derby future pool at your local racetrack/OTB.

Pool 1 Feb 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Feb 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 2 Mar 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Mar 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 3 Apr 12 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Apr 15 (closes at 6 pm EST)

These are the only days to place a future wager at your local racetrack/OTB. The final odds for each pool are set after betting closes on the final day of each pool. If you place your bet on Saturday and the odds are 25-1 on your horse, you are not assured of getting 25-1 odds. The final odds are displayed Sunday after the pool closes. Those odds will not change from that point on.

Each pool contains 23 individual betting interests, and a 'field' which includes every horse not listed (#24). The 'field' is a very popular wager, especially in Pool 1, since you get about 300 some horses. The field (#24) is the likely favorite in Pool 1.

As you get closer to the Derby (i.e. Pool 3), most of the horses likely to run in the Derby are identified. Generally speaking, it is less likely that a 'field' entry from Pool 3 will run in the Derby than from Pool 1 or 2.

If your horse does not run in the Derby (a very likely scenario), you lose. You do not get a refund. There is no cancelling your bet once it is placed.

It is possible to cancel a ticket if an error is made, but Churchill Downs is getting very selective in what is cancelled and why - basically if the teller screws up and you notice it immediately you stand a chance of getting a cancellation. If you walk away from the window, the ticket is yours.

Here is a link to the 'official' site of the 2007 Derby:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

There you can find 'real time' odds, the final odds once the pool closes, and info on some of the top horses.

What are people's thoughts on Street Sense breaking 'the Curse'?

That BC Juvenile race still looks like the best race any of these horses has run. We haven't seen him yet this year. Sounds like he will point for the Hutcheson and the Bluegrass.

I'm not exactly drooling over the 12-1 morning line.... but come Derby day that could look like a bargain.

He might be vulnerable in the 7 1/2 f Hutcheson. Not sure that distance is going to play to his running style. Perhaps there are better odds to be had in Pool 2?

[Dunbar]

free PP's are available at DRF for the 23 individual entries:

http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007...y_23_pool1.pdf

--Dunbar

[coltsfan]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm pretty sure you can bet it at most tracks and OTB's but don't quote me on that.

Thanks, I never really have thought much about the futures, but if I can bet them at the track, I might give it a shot.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Here's some more info, 1st_Sat. Of the 5 lowest odds horses from Pool 1 each year, 60% have made it to the starting gate (21 of a possible 35). Of the next 5 lowest odds horses, 43% have started (15 of a possible 35).

Combining those figs with your 62 of 161, it looks like the "bottom 13" have just 26 of 91 possible starters, 29%.

--Dunbar