Invasor 1 to 9

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Bid

God I just watched the race again, that horse lost at least 7 lengths. Still won by 2

Its comical to say he didnt run that good of a race

The field was bad, but you watch that replay and tell me the turn of foot that horse showed after being dead stopped and clipping isnt incredible

The most insane thing about it is he wasnt cranked to run his biggest race. That horse is a damn freak, period.

7 lengths of trouble? Turn of foot?
How do you quantify trouble in a race to exact lengths?
His 'turn of foot' was achieved in a race where they were crawling home. The last 3/8ths in 38 seconds, last 1/8th in 12.3. The very next race a 100-1 shot ran his last 3/8ths in 36.4 and his last 1/8th in 12.2 going the same distance.
In essence the other horses were stopping so badly he looked like he was closing fast, which he wasn't.
He is a very good horse who overcame troble to swamp a bunch of listed type horse. No more, no less.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

7 lengths of trouble? Turn of foot?
How do you quantify trouble in a race to exact lengths?
His 'turn of foot' was achieved in a race where they were crawling home. The last 3/8ths in 38 seconds, last 1/8th in 12.3. The very next race a 100-1 shot ran his last 3/8ths in 36.4 and his last 1/8th in 12.2 going the same distance.
In essence the other horses were stopping so badly he looked like he was closing fast, which he wasn't.
He is a very good horse who overcame troble to swamp a bunch of listed type horse. No more, no less.

the fractions for both races might help.
The Donn
22.8/46.5/110.5/135.8/148.43

10th race allowance
24.0/49.0/113.9/138.3/150.8

The crawling home as you put it had a lot to do with how fast the earlier part of the race was run. Invasor crawled home to a final time that was 2.3 seconds faster than the other race.

I don't see it as some illusion caused by passing slow running horses. Jara held him from about midway on the turn, tryed to go out upon entering the stretch, finding no way to get out had to check up even more while angling back to the inside. As I watched the race it looked like an impossible position to rally from and win. The horses on the outside pathes had the momentum and time was running out. He was in real trouble pinned in behind a wall of horses.

What I found remarkable was how little time it took him to get out of the trouble and get the lead back, which he did in plenty of time to wrap it up again. He did close fast for the required amount of time it took him to get out of trouble.

In my view, you just don't see horses do, what he did in that race.

[Scav]

I just watched the race and not about to read all this hilariousness BUT

1) Jara should be taken out back and shot in the melon, that is the LAST thing he was suppose to do, real smart to clip heels and tear a ligament or something

2) Pretty F'n impressive, BUT he did run up a golden rail, at least it was earlier on, not sure because I got HANDED today and stopped wagering and started drinking

[Danzig]

invasor is the real deal. he has been, his classic showed that.
the dramatics today were unnecessary, and we've seen better from him-and that field was a bunch of mules. but to imply he isn't that good because of how the race turned out today is incorrect imo.
and i agree with sightseek, thanks shadwell!!

it's his first race of the year, not fully up to snuff. he won, as he should have. on to bigger and better.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just watched the race and not about to read all this hilariousness BUT

1) Jara should be taken out back and shot in the melon, that is the LAST thing he was suppose to do, real smart to clip heels and tear a ligament or something

2) Pretty F'n impressive, BUT he did run up a golden rail, at least it was earlier on, not sure because I got HANDED today and stopped wagering and started drinking

at the very least, keiran should put him over his knee.

[randallscott35]

Don't know if the link was put up for the race yet and I'm not going back to look so here.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=s2WkqdxHWbU

[The Bid]

Kieran said Fernando did a great job getting the horse out of a bad spot.

God, I wish Kieran was my dad when I was younger

[randallscott35]

Good race call by the way. Maybe that guy should replace Denman for the BC, b/c he spit the bit on BC day....Please bring Durkin back.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Kieran said Fernando did a great job getting the horse out of a bad spot.

God, I wish Kieran was my dad when I was younger

but he also did say that inside was the wrong way to go...nice of him not to publically tongue lash his jock.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor crawled home to a final time that was 2.3 seconds faster than the other race.

Well, the other race was an N1X Allowance for newly turned 3yo's.....and the 108/1 winner of that race was 8-0-0-2 lifetime on fast tracks, his career top Beyer was just a 72.

Obviously, Invasor's race came home so tremendously slow for the Grade 1 Older Male level, because the early pace was very fast. However, Invasor benifited from that fast pace....as much or more so than any other horse in the race.

And while he overcame major leauge trouble---he did it in a collapsing race....and his "heroic late surge to victory" came through really slow late fractions for that type of race.

It was a great sight to watch....and he's obviously a very good horse....but, when circumstances are considered, that was far from a truly great performance.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Well, the other race was an N1X Allowance for newly turned 3yo's.....and the 108/1 winner of that race was 8-0-0-2 lifetime on fast tracks, his career top Beyer was just a 72.

Obviously, Invasor's race came home so tremendously slow for the Grade 1 Older Male level, because the early pace was very fast. However, Invasor benifited from that fast pace....as much or more so than any other horse in the race.

And while he overcame major leauge trouble---he did it in a collapsing race....and his "heroic late surge to victory" came through really slow late fractions for that type of race.

It was a great sight to watch....and he's obviously a very good horse....but, when circumstances are considered, that was far from a truly great performance.

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

So it was a great sight to watch, and he overcame major league trouble, but not a great performance. OK.

No one was expecting a race for the ages here. Invasor just showed yet another dimension to his will to win.

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Amen!

I think the real problem here is the horse's name is not Discreet Cat.

Please, if the horse was Discreet Cat he would have folded up once the going got tough like that Ward horse in the Hal's Hope and we would have had to hear about how the terrible trip got him beat. Instead he showed heart, fought through the tough trip, and actually won so everyone is going to focus on the slow time and the lack of competition and just ignore the trouble he ran into during the race. He'll get the worst Beyer of his career (about a 107) which shouldn't be surprising considering the trouble he ran into. I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm starting to understand trip handicapping, it means finding excuses for the horses you like and finding reasons to diminish the performance of horses you don't like. It is a handicapper's dream since it never makes them wrong.

In that case...you really don't understand it at all....and have a lot to learn.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Here are Beyers from Saturday at GP and SA.

Spin Master, 99
Keyed Entry, 105
Adore the Gold, 102
Sweet Return, 104
Giant Wrecker, 103
Naissance Royale, 98
Invasor, 109
Arsen Squad, 104
Ravel, 102
Curlin, 101
Nobiz Like Shobiz, 98

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I looked over the final time of the days races again at GP today. I will take a stab at what the Beyer figures will be when they are published tomorrow.

Invasor- 108 (Donn Handicap)

Spin Master- 100 (Race #2 ALW winner)

Keyed Entry- 106 (Deputy Minister Handicap)

Curlin- 103 (Race #4 MSW winner)

Adore The Gold- 103 (Swale Stakes winner)

Nobiz Like Shobiz- 99 (Holy Bull Stakes winner)

Nice work, DrugS! None off by more than 1 except for Curlin's which was off by 2.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

[blackthroatedwind]

While I know you are just having fun here, which is obviously totally cool, I will say ( for what it's worth ) that I have spent a lot of time discussing the races and watching replays with DrugS and I have a huge amount of respect for his opinion.

He's a pathetic excuse for a human being, and really only of actual value during an unexpected flood, but he can handicap circles around 99% of the horseplaying population.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the race a few more times.....


Invasor had an overall good trip and arguably an easier one than the second finisher. He also won by a few lengths in hand and was clearly the best horse but this " troubled trip " is being massively overrated around here. So he snuck inside and was briefly stymied and had to wait for room.....big deal. Hesanoldsalt was sawed off at the start when the horse outside of him came over ( the horse inside of him took the worst of this ) and entered the first turn at least five wide and was never inside the 3 1/2 to 4 path and then rallied 5 wide on the second turn. I don't want to make too much of the wides but the Gulfstream rail was surely good today ( probably not a HUGE advantage ) and perhaps the best part of the track. I am in no way suggesting Hesanoldsalt is the horse Invasor is, but merely pointing out his trip, and I do not believe it was easier than saving all the ground, on both turns, while being relatively briefly steadied off behind horses.

To me one of the most common mistakes people make in watching races is overrating trouble. Trouble is worst early when it costs horses valuable position while expending the same energy as the better position would have cost them. Saving ground, and having a sweet trip, while encountering a little traffic, is far from a bad trip and in fact an all-around good one.

Just my opinion.

Come on, this is Zito's horse...don't you think you are being a little biased here? If Invasor's trip wasn't as bad as you say it is, why the knock on Jara earlier in the thread? Being boxed in AND stumbling/clipping heels is a bit worse in my opinion than a 'little traffic'.