Help me learn to "watch" a race

[ArlJim78]

If you've got an online account with access to replays, you're going to find that many times it gives you an edge over other players just using the form. I'll give you an example that I run into over and over.

Let's say you're looking at a maiden race, where the second and third place finishers are returning from the same previous race. In the previous race let's say that they were only separated by a half length and that they seem like the only logical contenders for todays race. You might think it will be hard to separate these and find a horse to key or use on top. But I find that often if you study the previous race closely several times from both angles, you can usually determine which horse is more suitable for todays race. It could be that the horse that finished second made a gradual steady close from the rear while not participating in the pace at all with no real excuses and the jockey was pumping him with his hands for a long time and was hard ridden in the stretch. While at the same time the horse that finished a half length back in third broke like a shot from the gate, dueled with another horse through the early fractions while racing wide on the turn, put away the horse that he was dueling with and then proceeded to run to the wire with good energy only to give way in the final yards to the winner and the second place horse that had the easy trip.

Then you look at todays race and you see that the the race is a half furlong longer and there is no other horse with early speed. Usually the public choice will be the closer because he finished in front of the other one last time and with the extra distance he should keep opening up, right? What ends up happening is you bet the speed horse that finished third because you know that last time he had to work much harder in the speed duel but did it on his own without the jockey asking him for everything and today when he gets the early uncontested lead he will cruise and the extra half furlong will mean diddly squat.

This is just one example but other times using the same race scenario you will look back at the previous race and find that the speed horse that finished third got out on an uncontested lead then looked tired and wobbly in the stretch and the closer that finished second came sharply from the back of the pack with good acceleration and was not all out.

Just two illustrations but the point is that the number of things you will pick up by looking at previous races is extraordinary just looking back at the horses to see how they were running in key parts of the race.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i look for things that make me want to give that horse a chance next out..vs same company..bad break , covered up ,checked, bad step,bad jock choices..as far as if your in the 10 hole and the jock trys to half clear on the outside and gets hammerd.you lost 4-5 lenths..have a horse the reengauges several times with a good trip will walk away last 1/8.th..i had a great example of this..baymont..last year he ran vs the same 8 horses on the turf in the first time he ran with them he was totally blocked the last 1/8th of a mile down the inside str...the jock prado didnt make it to obv..next time he ran.vs the same group..he was just about to get boxed in the same way and edgar moved him inside out and walked away at 8-1...also when you see a horse that fits the bill ...put him on your drf watch list//then next time he is entered you can cash on him..

[SentToStud]

1. The most important part of the race is the start, especially in sprints and turf races started on the straight..
2. While track bias is always important, I feel how a horse runs against it's OWN bias is critically important. A couple examples... 1, Speed-type sprinters breaking a bit poor from the inside will often dramatically improve with a middle or outside post; 2. Not all 2-turn turf races are the same, especially on a 7 furlong turf course. Races started on the straight usually produce a faster pace, especially early. Speed/Stalker types with outside posts are severely compromised in these races, often caught wide on the clubhouse turn and will generally do far better with an inside post at a longer distance out of the chute. When this situation arises for today's race, it's important to view replays not only of the horse's compromised races but also of a recent effort from an advantagous post.
3. Take trip notes on every horse. After a couple weeks, it takes only a few minutes per race.
4. If you try to play more than one or two circuits seriously, good luck! It's tough to be an expert on more than one track IMO.
5. Investing in a replay service is really cheap, if you do not have access to replays through your on-line account. I like racereplays.com.

good luck!

[Thunder Gulch]

Good discussion here guys and gals..

As some of you have mentioned, I look for "moves" within a race- that burst of acceleration that may go unnoticed to someone watching just the horses on the front and may go unappreciated if the horse making the move didn't win.

Also, I watch for horses running well against a bias or a single race pace disadvantage- eg, a closer who makes a good move to reach contention in a slowly paced race.

[2MinsToPost]

I would like to personally extend a thank you to each one of you who took the time to share your experiences and knowledge on this subject. What an informative thread!

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I would like to personally extend a thank you to each one of you who took the time to share your experiences and knowledge on this subject. What an informative thread!

Actually ...

... I didn't share knowledge and experience ... I just made stuff up.

But who can tell the difference?