Street Sense moves to the top of the Dispatch Derby Poll

[randallscott35]

On record from the week after the BC that Street Sense won't be in the gate on Derby Day and will never run a negative thoro again, definitely not within his 3 yr old season. Too much, too soon. We'll see what happens.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, I don't know enough about the Thorograph numbers to comment on his future numbers, but I prefer good horses, like Street Sense, than slow ones and think all this " he ran too fast too soon " stuff makes absolutely no sense. Surely it's easier to pick one horse, even like Street Sense, and be right when he doesn't live up to expectations, and certainly his BC performance was enhanced by a perfect trip, but he still seems like a good horse. Just not as good, perhaps, as Nobizlikeshowbiz.

I think the problem is we haven't seen enough genuinely good horses in the past decade and too many doped up flashes in the pan. Ya know, Easy Goer ran a 116 Beyer fig in the Champagne and he turned out OK. Point Given ran some pretty good races as a 2YO and he turned out OK as well. While I'm sure they're the only ones at least they prove anything's possible.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, I don't know enough about the Thorograph numbers to comment on his future numbers, but I prefer good horses, like Street Sense, than slow ones and think all this " he ran too fast too soon " stuff makes absolutely no sense. Surely it's easier to pick one horse, even like Street Sense, and be right when he doesn't live up to expectations, and certainly his BC performance was enhanced by a perfect trip, but he still seems like a good horse. Just not as good, perhaps, as Nobizlikeshowbiz.

I think the problem is we haven't seen enough genuinely good horses in the past decade and too many doped up flashes in the pan. Ya know, Easy Goer ran a 116 Beyer fig in the Champagne and he turned out OK. Point Given ran some pretty good races as a 2YO and he turned out OK as well. While I'm sure they're the only ones at least they prove anything's possible.

I agree but the call is for the rest of his career, as well as his entire 3 yr old season. If his thoro number is to be believed, it is the fastest 2 yr old number in the BC ever. That puts him in better than "good" category so if he's that good he'll show it....The early 3yr old number of Keyed Entry vs. FuSam last year ruined both....And Beyers are nice, but they aren't thoros, and a study done looking at negative numbers early in the 3yr old season last year on the thoro board was simply stunning when it looked at the what happens, not only up to the Derby, but the rest of the 3yr old season....The history of a number like Street Sense got is not very long so we'll have to see. Maybe he is the next Easy Goer. I hope so.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree but the call is for the rest of his career, as well as his entire 3 yr old season. If his thoro number is to be believed, it is the fastest 2 yr old number in the BC ever. That puts him in better than "good" category so if he's that good he'll show it....The early 3yr old number of Keyed Entry vs. FuSam last year ruined both....And Beyers are nice, but they aren't thoros, and a study done looking at negative numbers early in the 3yr old season last year on the thoro board was simply stunning when it looked at the what happens, not only up to the Derby, but the rest of the 3yr old season....The history of a number like Street Sense got is not very long so we'll have to see. Maybe he is the next Easy Goer. I hope so.

Keyed Entry follows a LONG list of horses from that barn that sizzled early and fizzled just as fast and FuSam appears to be a horse who didn't want any part of a distance past a mile. His BC Juvenile strongly demonstrated that to me when he sat a perfect trip, loomed up like he was gin at the top of the stretch, and had no finish whatsoever.

For every " reaction " I will give a logical explanation.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Keyed Entry follows a LONG list of horses from that barn that sizzled early and fizzled just as fast and FuSam appears to be a horse who didn't want any part of a distance past a mile. His BC Juvenile strongly demonstrated that to me when he sat a perfect trip, loomed up like he was gin at the top of the stretch, and had no finish whatsoever.

For every " reaction " I will give a logical explanation.

The "reaction" to Barbaro's Derby was a breakdown....The horse also very quietly needed wraps in January. Probably not the soundest to being with and Matz did a tremendous job with him.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree but the call is for the rest of his career, as well as his entire 3 yr old season. If his thoro number is to be believed, it is the fastest 2 yr old number in the BC ever. That puts him in better than "good" category so if he's that good he'll show it....The early 3yr old number of Keyed Entry vs. FuSam last year ruined both....And Beyers are nice, but they aren't thoros, and a study done looking at negative numbers early in the 3yr old season last year on the thoro board was simply stunning when it looked at the what happens, not only up to the Derby, but the rest of the 3yr old season....The history of a number like Street Sense got is not very long so we'll have to see. Maybe he is the next Easy Goer. I hope so.

He's definitely in the right barn if he's going to be a great one. My main concern is two preps for the derby.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

He's definitely in the right barn if he's going to be a great one. My main concern is two preps for the derby.

Not sure about that. He seems to have one foot out the door.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya know, Easy Goer ran a 116 Beyer fig in the Champagne and he turned out OK.

and the following year, Grand Canyon ran a 122 Beyer in the Hollywood Futurity.......


Fast horses are more likely to get hurt than plodders....but I agree with BTW, just because a horse runs fast early on, doesn't mean he's toast.

The star of the triple crown series, over each of the last four years (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Barbaro), all ran a triple digit Beyer figure as a 2yo. three of them in career start #2---Afleet Alex did it in career start #3, but that came in July of his 2-year-old season.

All four of those horses ranked right among the fastest 2-year-olds in the country on figures.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

and the following year, Grand Canyon ran a 122 Beyer in the Hollywood Futurity.......


Fast horses are more likely to get hurt than plodders....but I agree with BTW, just because a horse runs fast early on, doesn't mean he's toast.

The star of the triple crown series, over each of the last four years (Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Barbaro), all ran a triple digit Beyer figure as a 2yo. three of them in career start #2---Afleet Alex did it in career start #3, but that came in July of his 2-year-old season.
All four of those horses ranked right among the fastest 2-year-olds in the country on figures.

You really are my vote for MVP (most valuable poster)...thanks for bringing this up.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

...The early 3yr old number of Keyed Entry vs. FuSam last year ruined both....

TG had those horses running fast? I would think those numbers are questionable more than thinking they ruined the horses.