Hard Spun!!!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

but...horses don't know who their parents are!

Of course. Pedigree alone is NEVER a reason to be excited about a horse's chances. I get excited about a horse when it shows ability (which this colt has) AND has a pedigree which indicates that it SHOULD be able to stretch out.
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
For example, if someone was excited about Lawyer Ron early last year, guess what, they were right! Just because he was a nonfactor in the Derby and missed the rest of the TC, his performance in the Risen Star/Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby means that his early backers were right. It should not be ALL about the first Saturday in May.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Of course. Pedigree alone is NEVER a reason to be excited about a horse's chances. I get excited about a horse when it shows ability (which this colt has) AND has a pedigree which indicates that it SHOULD be able to stretch out.
I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
For example, if someone was excited about Lawyer Ron early last year, guess what, they were right! Just because he was a nonfactor in the Derby and missed the rest of the TC, his performance in the Risen Star/Southwest/Rebel/Arkansas Derby means that his early backers were right. It should not be ALL about the first Saturday in May.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

true...so many horses are considered a failure if they don't win in ky, but only ONE horse can win--every other 3 yo is a failure, or overrated if they don't?!

another horse i got on somewhat early was smarty--but i didn't think he was truly going to win the derby til he won the ark derby. i turned to my kids after he crossed the finish that day and said there's your derby horse. it was fun-but in a way, not so fun...you know that if you're right, that the horse is that good, you're days watching him are numbered.

i know rick porter was already offered a lot of money for this guy-those offers will only get bigger if he continues to do so well.

[Sightseek]

If he stays at Fair Grounds looks like he'll be tested against Circular Quay on the road to the Derby. Pletcher reported as saying he thought the longer stretch would be most beneficial to CQ's running style.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

If he stays at Fair Grounds looks like he'll be tested against Circular Quay on the road to the Derby. Pletcher reported as saying he thought the longer stretch would be most beneficial to CQ's running style.

Isn't Tabor a poly lover? Wouldn't surprise me to see the horse go to the Lane's End and the Blue Grass as his preps.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Isn't Tabor a poly lover? Wouldn't surprise me to see the horse go to the Lane's End and the Blue Grass as his preps.

Today's racing form...

[jpops757]

We all talk about top trainers . Larry Jones is always under the radar. I would like any of you name one horse he has trained that under performed. He always has his runners ready and seem to always do the right thing for his horses. These conection are a big plus mark.

[Samarta]

One thing I find interesting is that Jones shipped Hard Spun to Oaklawn for the Winter and is now indicating that he will take the Louisiana route and not the Arkansas route to the Derby. If that pans out, I wonder how the folks at Oaklawn will feel about the connections. Probably already a little strained to begin with.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Samarta

One thing I find interesting is that Jones shipped Hard Spun to Oaklawn for the Winter and is now indicating that he will take the Louisiana route and not the Arkansas route to the Derby. If that pans out, I wonder how the folks at Oaklawn will feel about the connections. Probably already a little strained to begin with.

yeah, i saw he mentioned the la derby....hope he changes his mind.

[The Bid]

Hes taking the right route. Why stay at Oaklawn and get your head chopped off by Westwon

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Problem with the Lane's End is it's only 2 weeks before the Bluegrass and I doubt Pletcher wants to run him so close back to back. I expect we'll see him in the Risen Star, LA Derby and then the Bluegrass.

The Lane's End is 3/24 and the Blue Grass 4/14 so that gives three weeks in between which is certainly possible if they want to go that route. The Risen Star is going to be loaded if CQ shows up.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah you're right. Who else is pointing for the Risen Star?

Hard Spun and a couple sleeper Derby horses I like in Grasshopper and Zanjero. I was thinking Makeithapencaptain too but after his effort yesterday he hardly improves the race if he goes.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought I read Hard Spun is being pointed towards the LA Derby, but I could be wrong. I like Zanjero as well, if he continues to improve he'll be a handful this year.

I think he may go in the Risen Star first but not sure. Any word on where Tiz Wonderful, Great Hunter, and Any Given Saturday are going this year? I know O'Neill said yesterday he was going to seperate Notional and Great Hunter so at least one should come east.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

true...so many horses are considered a failure if they don't win in ky, but only ONE horse can win--every other 3 yo is a failure, or overrated if they don't?!

another horse i got on somewhat early was smarty--but i didn't think he was truly going to win the derby til he won the ark derby. i turned to my kids after he crossed the finish that day and said there's your derby horse. it was fun-but in a way, not so fun...you know that if you're right, that the horse is that good, you're days watching him are numbered.

i know rick porter was already offered a lot of money for this guy-those offers will only get bigger if he continues to do so well.

No way he sells him no matter what the offer is.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think you are right to get excited about this colt even though it is early. For me the key to enjoying the 3yo spring season is not to treat the races as nothing more than Kentucky Derby preps.
Some people enjoy trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January. Fine. I don't. I have no way of knowing what kind of form Hard Spun will be in 4 months from now, or what other quality 3yos will emerge, but I do think he is a colt to watch for in the bigger 3yo races in the weeks ahead.

i just wanted to take a second to thank danzig188 and miraja2 for actually providing us with an interesting discussion about a derby contender they like without making any absurd predictions or declarations.
in this instance, i actually disagree with your analysis, because to me hard spun doesn't move in a way that makes me think he will be strong going 9+ furlongs against true g1/g2 competition. but regardless who is right, the colt is 4 for 4 so i can't blame you for liking him, but mainly i just appreciate your rational discussion, and most of all, your restraint.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by avance2000

i just wanted to take a second to thank danzig188 and miraja2 for actually providing us with an interesting discussion about a derby contender they like without making any absurd predictions or declarations.
in this instance, i actually disagree with your analysis, because to me hard spun doesn't move in a way that makes me think he will be strong going 9+ furlongs against true g1/g2 competition. but regardless who is right, the colt is 4 for 4 so i can't blame you for liking him, but mainly i just appreciate your rational discussion, and most of all, your restraint.

you're welcome!

i try not to get too up on these guys. too big a letdown when they can't sustain the pace we always set for them.

it's always interesting from now til may. some people back one horse come hell or high water. some bounce from horse to horse after each prep is run. always fun!!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

you're welcome!

i try not to get too up on these guys. too big a letdown when they can't sustain the pace we always set for them.

it's always interesting from now til may. some people back one horse come hell or high water. some bounce from horse to horse after each prep is run. always fun!!

I've got dibs on TIME SQUARED!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I've got dibs on TIME SQUARED!

well,....since you called dibs. i guess he's yours.
i feel comfortable calling dibs on hard spun. started keeping an eye on him when he went in the penna nursery. was hoping he would run well, and he did. but i am willing to share...
onward and (maybe) upward!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

well,....since you called dibs. i guess he's yours.
i feel comfortable calling dibs on hard spun. started keeping an eye on him when he went in the penna nursery. was hoping he would run well, and he did. but i am willing to share...
onward and (maybe) upward!

Hopefully your wagon doesn't get too crowded....the Rick Porter (remember Rocky?) and Penn Nursery connections cause hysteria amongst racing fans!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Hopefully your wagon doesn't get too crowded....the Rick Porter (remember Rocky?) and Penn Nursery connections cause hysteria amongst racing fans!

i was never too terribly big on rockport harbor. thought he would turn out not liking longer. i'm just really not a big fan of unbridled songs foals.

as for the wagon, the more the merrier!