Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$280.00 wagered
$304.70 returned

Alexis Zorba went off way below the ML at around 7/5 and paid $7.70 total for win and place. Mama’s Gold was terrible and me falling in love there probably cost me the Pick 5 as I didn’t include Film Star.

Saturday picks.

H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Race 10. #3 Barnes 9/2. Talented Baffert colt has been working great and I think he needed a little time off. Looking for him to fire a big one off the layoff at a square price.

Forego Stakes. Race 12. #8 Scotland 12/1. If Scotland’s last race was just a prep for this one, I think he’ll have a really good chance to win this. He’s definitely got to improve but I’ll take a shot on him at 12/1.

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

[theguarantee]

Fast Market chased and faded badly.
Apertif paid $9.80 to place, likely to break her maiden next out or soon…
Midnight Concerto took back to last and split the field with a much more mild finish than I expected/hoped for.
Dylan rode Cousin Ed the way I hoped, taking back a bit and worked out a nice trip, was just not good enough to catch Alexis Zorba, proving second best paying $8.30 to place.
Raging Sea again had a mess of it at the start but continues to just fall way too far out of these races early and she’s passing tired rivals late but not a whole lot more.
No idea what Prat was doing with Mullikan, that was a dreadful ride but he ran so poorly maybe it didn’t matter.

Wagered: $288.00
Returned: $273.80

[theguarantee]

Can't believe I didn't pick or bet On the Hill...been chasing that horse a while and been trying to get the Bond stable going...

Best Value: Race 7 #12 Bossy Dish 12/1 - Far from a confident selection but little other speed signed on and she really seemed to improve when finally moving to the turf. Don't think the bettors are dying to get aboard Rudy/Gomez but both are capable enough and if the connections were different I think she'd be much shorter in here.

Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Gem Mint Ten 20/1 - I don't know what to make of Rhetorical to be honest. I've been tremendously impressed with him and yet something with him seems unreliable. I won't be surprised if he dusts this field but I don't want to concede at such a short price...Betterluckythangood and Itsallcomintogetha are the more obvious alternatives and I get both of them as options, but I'm not totally thrilled with the form of either coming in and they're not going to be all that great of prices. Then I started picking apart Gem Mint Ten, who clearly looks to be in the worst form of any of these....yet he's got plenty of races from last year that make him a real contender and I think he can be excused for being up on a solid pace on good turf, just tiring late in the first start off the layoff. The last race was somewhat disappointing but I think is pretty easy to forgive when you consider the extreme pace scenario, he actually did all the dirty work in there and never stopped fighting, which makes me think he's not in as bad of form as it looks, just needs better racing luck. I don't really have an excuse for the Kingston and I can't fault anyone who thinks he's off form/facing similar/in without lasix again today...but Ray Handal is pretty sharp and didn't have to point back here where he knew probably what he'd be facing...I'm not a big fan of Maragh but I think the instructions are awfully simple here so I don't know if it'll do much other than add to the price.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Another day bringing back $7.70 with Scotland running 2nd. If Scotland had gotten up, I would have had a huge day. Instead, down overall. The G1 races were just an absolute chalktoberfest and I rarely bet favorites so that’s how my day went. Barnes ran a pretty good race to finish third but never really seemed to be in contention to catch the top two.

$288.00 wagered
$312.40 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #1 Sassetti 8/1. I can’t remember if I picked this horse already this meet or if I just thought about it but I liked this horse going into last race and I thought she ran a pretty good race that day as the only horse close to the pace not to finish poorly. I much prefer her to the horse that finished in front of her— the #2 Off Script who is listed at 7/2 ML.

Race 8. #3 Bettrluckythangood 5/1. Not sure what to make of the pace here but it sure looks like a lot of horses that want to be up front. That might just set up perfectly for this one. There is a big favorite here but not sure much separates this field.

Returned $3.60 with Bettrluckythangood finishing 2nd. Just grinding it out.

$296.00 wagered
$316.00 returned

[moses]

Wednesday.

Race 3. #6 Russi 6/1. Here’s a horse from the Bond barn that should have a real shot in this competitive turf sprint. Russi was wide throughout in his first off the layoff and I thought he was more impressive than Vacation Dance that day as Russi had no cover the entire race but still finished willingly. That’s the type of effort I love to see off the layoff. I’d like to see Javy save some ground this time around, but even if he gets stuck wide, he should be ready to move forward.

Race 8. #5 Sushi 20/1. Carmouche has been riding great and Delgado usually sends live horses up to Saratoga. I thought her turf race was sneaky good as she didn’t have a great start, was close to the pace, got uncomfortable and steadied causing her to drop back and then still was game to run on in the stretch. They tried to get her back on turf last out but it rained off and she won. It would have been easy to keep her on dirt after that but they want to put her back on the grass. Pedigree suggests she will be just fine going added ground. This is a step up but her form on turf is much better imo than her figures suggest.

Thursday.

Race 5. #3 Hedge 9/2. Early in this meet, the Kentucky horses seemed to dominate the horses coming from other circuits. I'm not sure if that trend has held up but I want to take a shot here with Hedge who exits a series of allowance races in Kentucky against much better horses than he'll face here. I'm not sold on Tactical Trackstar's race last out. Bye Bye Miles may be tough but I wasn't overly impressed with the field he faced last race. Ben Colebrook doesn't send horses to Saratoga often and he'll ship this one in from Keeneland (positive ROI on shippers over the last 5 years.) Colebrook has only sent 3 horses to the NY circuit in the last 5 years, winning 1 of those races (the dominant win by Raise Cain in the Gotham a few years ago.)

Race 7. #6 One More Freud 6/1. One More Freud goes 1st off the claim for Mike Maker (19% win rate) after getting claimed for $35,000 following his impressive 14-length debut victory. The waters obviously get deeper here as that didn't seem like much of a field that he beat last out. Still, he holds a major advantage with the highest last out BSF and TF figure. He draws Ricardo Santana, who has continued to ride well during the Saratoga meet. Importantly, his pedigree has plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can run on turf. During his impressive debut, he showed off a long stride and and drew off easily as soon as he hit the top of the stretch. Despite all this, he's likely to fly under the radar as Dr. Agne will get to try turf for the first time and is out of the multiple G1 winning mare Lady Eli. You've also got a Pletcher horse, Klaravich/Chad/Prat horse, and Clement horse as well as a Godolphin homebred and John Oxley colt trained by Mark Casse. It wouldn't shock me one bit for this horse to be much higher than 6/1.

[moses]

Friday

Race 3. #2 Program Trading 8/5. I know the price here is short but I just don't see any way that Program Trading loses this one. I suppose you could make the case that Northern Invader wires the field but he should get some pace pressure from Donegal Momentum and possibly Major Dude (who has generally been more involved in the pace under Johnny V). I wanted to make a case for General Jim at 10/1 to sit the perfect trip behind the speed horses and I'd still love to see that for Shug and Carmouche but I can't ignore that Program Trading has a class edge and pace advantage and owns the best figures in the race. I'm skeptical he'll be 8/5 but note Donegal Momentum does draw Irad aboard which should intrigue bettors enough to keep Program Trading above even money.


Race 11. #7 Les Reys 8/1. A lot of people liked this horse last out so I'm unsure if she'll be 8/1 or not. Morning line favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing is sure to draw a lot of money but I don't want to bet her at a short price. Yes, she's got a Grade 1 win at the distance on her resume but that race was on a yielding turf course and I don't want to put too much weight into it. There are simply too many interesting faces in this race for me to bet Dynamic Pricing at 8/5. I'm intrigued by a few horses in this race, including the #9 Ribaltagaia 8/1, #4 A Lilac Rolla 8/1, and #6 Proctor Street 7/2 and I think you simply can't single Dynamic Pricing in multis in this race (and in fact, I will totally toss her from my multis and use the 4, 7, and 9 in hopes of landing a big price here). I want to give Les Reys a shot. She ran OK in her first race off the layoff, finishing a length behind Deep Satin (2nd in G2 Ballston Spa next out) and a 1/2 length behind Heredia (1st in G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap next out). I'd expect her to move forward in her 2nd race off the layoff. She's already got a win over Dynamic Pricing last year and I think her ability to comfortably split horses gives her an advantage, which should allow Rosario to work out a good trip for her.

[theguarantee]

8/27:

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Tiz in Sight 5/1
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Dark Devil 15/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

8/27:

Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Tiz in Sight 5/1
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Dark Devil 15/1

I remember you picking Ruse a few years ago in this. He just won at 24/1 (via DQ).

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I remember you picking Ruse a few years ago in this. He just won at 24/1 (via DQ).

Yeah, I've been a fan in the past, can't say I had him yesterday...it's funny the beginning of this Saratoga meet was about as locked in as I've ever felt as a handicapper...the last couple weeks about as opposite of being locked in as possible lol...tough game. That said, we have some pretty decent cards to close the meet, hopefully we can both close out strong.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday

Race 3. #2 Program Trading 8/5. I know the price here is short but I just don't see any way that Program Trading loses this one. I suppose you could make the case that Northern Invader wires the field but he should get some pace pressure from Donegal Momentum and possibly Major Dude (who has generally been more involved in the pace under Johnny V). I wanted to make a case for General Jim at 10/1 to sit the perfect trip behind the speed horses and I'd still love to see that for Shug and Carmouche but I can't ignore that Program Trading has a class edge and pace advantage and owns the best figures in the race. I'm skeptical he'll be 8/5 but note Donegal Momentum does draw Irad aboard which should intrigue bettors enough to keep Program Trading above even money.


Race 11. #7 Les Reys 8/1. A lot of people liked this horse last out so I'm unsure if she'll be 8/1 or not. Morning line favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing is sure to draw a lot of money but I don't want to bet her at a short price. Yes, she's got a Grade 1 win at the distance on her resume but that race was on a yielding turf course and I don't want to put too much weight into it. There are simply too many interesting faces in this race for me to bet Dynamic Pricing at 8/5. I'm intrigued by a few horses in this race, including the #9 Ribaltagaia 8/1, #4 A Lilac Rolla 8/1, and #6 Proctor Street 7/2 and I think you simply can't single Dynamic Pricing in multis in this race (and in fact, I will totally toss her from my multis and use the 4, 7, and 9 in hopes of landing a big price here). I want to give Les Reys a shot. She ran OK in her first race off the layoff, finishing a length behind Deep Satin (2nd in G2 Ballston Spa next out) and a 1/2 length behind Heredia (1st in G2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap next out). I'd expect her to move forward in her 2nd race off the layoff. She's already got a win over Dynamic Pricing last year and I think her ability to comfortably split horses gives her an advantage, which should allow Rosario to work out a good trip for her.

The kiss of death here saying I didn’t see how Program Trading could lose. Paid $2.10 to place. I missed Race 11 but doesn’t look like Les Reys was anywhere close.

$320.00 wagered
$352.50 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 6 #7 Souper Caliber 8/1 - Thought this horse ran incredibly well despite not liking the turf at all imo. Bred for the dirt and I know Casse has no problem starting one on a surface he doesn’t necessarily prefer. That should’ve been a perfect tightener to get him ready to fire a big shot cutting back slightly on the preferred surface today imo

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 11 #5 Percy’s Bar 6/1 - like the way this one is developing. Tommy Jo looks very formidable but think Percy will run a big one

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday.

Race 3. #6 Russi 6/1. Here’s a horse from the Bond barn that should have a real shot in this competitive turf sprint. Russi was wide throughout in his first off the layoff and I thought he was more impressive than Vacation Dance that day as Russi had no cover the entire race but still finished willingly. That’s the type of effort I love to see off the layoff. I’d like to see Javy save some ground this time around, but even if he gets stuck wide, he should be ready to move forward.

Race 8. #5 Sushi 20/1. Carmouche has been riding great and Delgado usually sends live horses up to Saratoga. I thought her turf race was sneaky good as she didn’t have a great start, was close to the pace, got uncomfortable and steadied causing her to drop back and then still was game to run on in the stretch. They tried to get her back on turf last out but it rained off and she won. It would have been easy to keep her on dirt after that but they want to put her back on the grass. Pedigree suggests she will be just fine going added ground. This is a step up but her form on turf is much better imo than her figures suggest.

Thursday.

Race 5. #3 Hedge 9/2. Early in this meet, the Kentucky horses seemed to dominate the horses coming from other circuits. I'm not sure if that trend has held up but I want to take a shot here with Hedge who exits a series of allowance races in Kentucky against much better horses than he'll face here. I'm not sold on Tactical Trackstar's race last out. Bye Bye Miles may be tough but I wasn't overly impressed with the field he faced last race. Ben Colebrook doesn't send horses to Saratoga often and he'll ship this one in from Keeneland (positive ROI on shippers over the last 5 years.) Colebrook has only sent 3 horses to the NY circuit in the last 5 years, winning 1 of those races (the dominant win by Raise Cain in the Gotham a few years ago.)

Race 7. #6 One More Freud 6/1. One More Freud goes 1st off the claim for Mike Maker (19% win rate) after getting claimed for $35,000 following his impressive 14-length debut victory. The waters obviously get deeper here as that didn't seem like much of a field that he beat last out. Still, he holds a major advantage with the highest last out BSF and TF figure. He draws Ricardo Santana, who has continued to ride well during the Saratoga meet. Importantly, his pedigree has plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can run on turf. During his impressive debut, he showed off a long stride and and drew off easily as soon as he hit the top of the stretch. Despite all this, he's likely to fly under the radar as Dr. Agne will get to try turf for the first time and is out of the multiple G1 winning mare Lady Eli. You've also got a Pletcher horse, Klaravich/Chad/Prat horse, and Clement horse as well as a Godolphin homebred and John Oxley colt trained by Mark Casse. It wouldn't shock me one bit for this horse to be much higher than 6/1.

One More Freud is scratched.

Sticking with #3 Hedge in Race 5 for one selection.

For the next selection, I'm going to go with:

Race 11. #4 Extraordinary One 12/1. As noted two weeks ago, this horse is a turf sprinter and I was happy to bet him at a big price two weeks ago against much better. Now, he drops in for a tag. Edmund Davis has only 12 wins over the last 5 years. 2 of those wins were going MSW to MCL.

Edit, previously was going with:

Race 1. #5 Oh 5/1. Manny Franco has possibly started to get out of his slump, ending with two wins yesterday. And note, while Franco has been struggling and disappointing this meet, he's finished in the money 41% still, which isn't great but also could be a lot worse. Mike Maker has sent seven 2YO first time starters to Saratoga this meet. While only 1 has won, 5 of them finished in the money. Both of the two sent out for this owner ended up finishing in the money. None of the experienced horses here blow me away so why not take a shot on a first time starter with some decent looking works and a good debut trainer?