Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Looking at the forecast, I strongly suspect the turf races are coming off. With that in mind, not going to stick with Midnightloveaffair. Instead, here are my Thursday picks.

Race 6. #7 Big Heleonora, 12/1. Linda got this horse on the worktab in April and immediately shipped her up to Saratoga where she put in a few strong workouts and seems to be in maintenance mode. She does pretty well with FTS and Rice/Carmouche is clicking at 18% here at Saratoga for a $3.00 return. The projected favorite is a 2YO from Ellis who ships for the first time and whose debut figure is nothing special.

Race 9. #5 The Wine Steward, 6/1. The #2 Bank Frenzy is a pretty nice horse but doesn’t own figures so much better than this field that I want to bet him at 3/1. The likely favorite #9 Whatchatalkinabout has had two very strong races to start his 4YO year. But if you look back at Whatchatalkinabout compared to The Wine Steward, you’ll see that The Wine Steward beat him at Saratoga in the Funnycide in their 2YO season.

Since that race, the two horses have taken very different paths. The Wine Steward stepped up in class and performed well, with place finishes in the Breeders Futurity, Lexington, and Peter Pan before faltering in the Belmont Stakes. Meanwhile, Whatchatalkinabout stayed in the lower ranks and faced off against NY Bred and allowance horses until May of this year when he won the John Nerud Stakes.

But back to The Wine Steward. He had a nice stakes win to start off his 4YO year and was immediately thrown to the wolves again, trying to keep up with Saudi Crown and Banishing in the Oaklawn Park Mile and unsurprisingly getting run into the ground (though holding on for third.) While the last race for him at Lonestar Park might make you think he doesn’t like a wet track, he seemed to run just fine two back in the mud. I’d guess his very wide trip around both turns was more to blame than anything. Even the very talented Touchuponastar (you might disagree with this assessment if your name is Chad Brown) came up empty in the stretch after being wide throughout. It seems like you wanted to be near the rail that day. So I’m going to throw that race out. The Wine Steward ran back to his prior season numbers in his 4YO debut. He then had two impossible tasks. This is a much easier spot and I’d expect him to, at minimum, run back to his 4YO debut figure and I’d guess he improves on that. If he does, he’s going to win. And, oh yeah, Prat is aboard. I just hope his presence doesn’t deflate the odds too much.

[theguarantee]

Ugly card today. I like your analysis of the Morrissey. It's where I landed as well so I won't waste time adding anything to your thorough write-up.

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 The Wine Steward 6/1

Best Value: Race 10 #1A Soundbite 8/1 - Wide open race still off the turf as I think you can make a case for basically anyone in here. With that said and expecting to get less than the ML obviously, I think Soundbite is kind of in the best form of any of these. She was slow to break her maiden but she's come back to run three pretty nice races since then including the blowout win two back same surface and distance.

[moses]

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I had a lot riding on The Wine Steward there. That was really tough. He looked like a winner nearly the entire race.

Paid $7.10 to place.

$152.00 wagered
$251.00 returned

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Yeah, that was sickening - I thought we were home. Cost me the late pick 5 and some other stuff...Prat rode The Wine Steward perfect, he seems snakebitten currently...some of the riders with more wins and/or higher win percentages are pretty shocking, at least they would've been before the meet...I do still think it's mainly noise, but interesting nonetheless.

TWS paid $7.10 to place
Soundbite got a nice ride by Manny, who got her to settle and stayed in the clear, timed the run perfectly paying $14.80/$7.00

Wagered: $152.00
Returned: $180.20

Nice call on Sound Bite. Back in the winners circle.

Today, it seemed like the guys who are good at giving aggressive forwardly placed rides fared well (Santana, Carmouche, Jose Ortiz). It might be a while before I get Lezcano again. He has not been riding well.

[moses]

Friday.

Race 7. #3 Tiz Dashing, 15/1. I’ll probably look like a fool for betting against Zulu Kingdom but my plan here is to go two wide in horizontals, using only #2 Luther and #3 Tiz Dashing. My hope is that Zulu Kingdom gets a little caught up in what looks like a fast pace and gets run down by one of them. And I think Tiz Dashing will be every bit of 15/1, expecting most money to land on Zulu Kingdom, Luther, and Clever Again. Tiz Dashing got a nice trip last out and wasn’t good enough but he was coming off a small layoff and I’d expect him to be a little more geared up for this one. Maybe I’ll look like a fool but I’ll take the risk at 15/1.

Race 8. #11 Kismeholdmethrlme, 20/1. I’ve spent a lot of time on this card and just couldn’t go with my original picks in this spot (Cloudy in Race 9, Leslie Star in Race 10.) This horse promises to be a monster price in a field with no clear favorite and certainly no horses that your really trust to run well. His figures from earlier this year on dirt make him somewhat competitive here and note he’s been on grass most of his recent races, but his pedigree looks more like dirt. Franco hops aboard and he should hopefully be able to work out a good trip. He finished 2nd in a MCL50,000 3 back that got washed off the turf.

[theguarantee]

8/1/25

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Vinsanity 15/1 - I thought about going back to Fluid Situation in here who did have a little trouble never getting totally free riding the rail, but I also just never thought he really finished up there. Chess Master and Shefflin can obviously win but I don't want either at a short price. There are some other options here and Vinsanity is probably a stretch but he'll be a huge price in here...he has some 5.5 turf sprints on firm that I think are competitive in here, I think the effort on softer turf in June can be ignored and sneakily he ran pretty well I thought in that dirt sprint at Monmouth last out. I think he's getting back to what he does best sprinting on the turf...might not be good enough but I'm not sure he's really that much less likely than Cloudy, Chiringo, Hilarious Affair etc who will all be (some much) lower prices.

Best Value: Race 8 #9 Come Full Circle 12/1 - Will have to improve returning to dirt and shortening up...the debut effort was better than it looks fig wise though and even that number puts him into the mix...not sure he won't be a bit of a wiseguy horse and come down from the 12/1 (and maybe it's a bad thing if he truly is double digits in here) - but I think in a race where you initially want to beat the favorites but struggle to find anything to latch onto, he's the right type to take a shot with.