Two at Toga (2024)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 10 #4 Scrictly Taboo 6/1 - Not a flashy sort but I think can step up and beat these. I thought the race two back was very impressive and last time just did what was needed very professionally. Not exactly scared of anyone in here even though Risk Threshold was visually impressive last out...hoping that actually leads to that one being overbet.

Best Value: Race 9 #8 Charles J 8/1 - Despite what the beyers indicate I think this ones route was much stronger than the two sprints its sandwiched between...within the context of that race I thought ran much better than Wild Dancer and hopefully offers some value for the dangerous Joseph Lee/Frankie combo.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Will make up for cancellations at some point.

Best Bet: Race 8: #8 Caroline Street
Best Value Race 10 #4 Wrigelyville

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #4 Just Basking 5/1 - Tricky race the Alabama came up this year. Obviously Candied can win but I wanted to beat her. I was originally leaning toward Miss Justify but I can't shake the feeling she might not get the added ground. This one certainly should, just a matter of if she classes up to these.

Best Value: Race 9 #2 Grayosh 8/1 - Not sure she's really good enough to beat She Feels Pretty or the Appleby horse everyone seems to be against (don't love her but don't totally get it either, she's a little scary to me)...but I have to give her another shot after the last where I thought she was much the best just forced to move a little early and wide. I'm hoping given the draw that Prat will be a little more aggressive early getting a little more forward while saving all the ground. I still think she's a little better than she looks on paper and might be still improving.

[seekingthegold]

Dude thank your efforts.
I follow a lot of guys looking for value.
You are the best and I thank you

[theguarantee]

^Thanks. Glad you're finding it insightful.

Three pack today.

Race 9: #7 Playingwithmatches 8/1- I think he needed that last and will love the seven furlongs today. Seems to be spotted to win today. Hopefully Lezcano can work out the right kind of trip in a tricky field with a murky pace scenario to me.

Race 10 #2 Enfuega 4/1 - Two back was so impressive to me. Talk about doing all the dirty work...i really thought she was sitting on a big move forward off that and then for some reason they tried the turf. Hoping that is an easy cross off and it actually gets us a little value in here today. Not sure though because she still feels pretty obvious with IMO all the upside of these in here today.

Race 11 #16 Colloquy 5/1 - Hoping Irad off gets some value here because he really got this horse beat moving far too early in the last after completely missing the break. I do think this is stretching the distance limits here but if Junior can get him to break better today and time his move right, something I think hes usually really good at with these types, think he can get the money in here today.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Thursdays runners scratched.
Caroline Street was terrible Friday. I watched the replay multiple times and still not sure if Wrigleyville wouldve been a winner but certainly took the worst of it in the stretch.
Saturday - would've been interesting if Landeros opted not to swing Just Basking into the parking lot, with that said he saved ground every step and she had a perfect setup, ultimately lacked a potent enough late kick with dead aim.
Grayosh was nice, been following this one closely a while now and good to get some vindication, even better was that Flavien did exactly what I was hoping and rode a masterful race which made the difference. Paid 17.60/5.10
Playingwithmatches was a bad pick yesterday. Overthought that race as my initial cap was to single Super Chief, who was on my watch list from a while back off a series of incredibly bad rides from Herrera.
Really disappointed in Enfuega yesterday. I was confident she would handle that field relatively easy, was a generous price and the favorite was as phony as I thought...somehow Enfuega was worse.
Junior got Colloquy out the gate and timed his move perfectly, perhaps a touch overconfident but still proved best at a generous 5/1 paying 13.80/6.40.

Bet: $224.00
Returned: $354.90

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #13 Kings Leap 5/1 - Not sure how much of a runner this one is but arguably the debut is better than anything in here imp and the last trip was a nightmare.

Best Value: Race 7 #9 Midnight Trouble 8/1 - Obviously drawing a line through the last, not really sure what to expect today as hes a bit inconsistent...but the better efforts, particularly that race two back, would make him pretty tough today.