Two at Toga (2024)

[theguarantee]

Bet: $160.00
Returned: $260.80

Struggled with the card today.

Best Bet: Race 9 #7 Marco T. 7/2 - Despite the win last out at 6 I think the 5.5 is going to be perfect for her style...Manny will have to time it right and not lose too much ground though.

Best Value: Race 9 #8 Ninja Abarrio 8/1 - Not sure I'm convinced this one is really good enough but did finish pretty well considering the wild trip two back. Kind if hung last out but gets an upgrade to Dylan today and seems to fit well enough.

[theguarantee]

With the races coming off the turf ill stick with Ninja Abarrio in the last although I won't claim a lot of confidence.

Race 9 switching to the MTO #9 Bank on Anna - maybe will be overbet as the lone MTO but on Beyers at least there are some faster options so maybe the price will be ok. Has some back races to be tough. Drawing a line through the last and thought the previous two were a little better than they look on paper.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 11 #4 Dot's Dollar 9/2 - Drawing a line through the last and think the cutback helps. Got an awkward inside trip chasing a fast pace, the run two back should win today.
Best Value: Race 12 #1 Golden Degree - no idea what to expect for a price but assume the other three will take a lot of money so could be OK. Exaggerated victories and not that fast but she's really moving up for Linda and with another step forward can win here, especially if you think Barayes last is as dressed up as I do.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #7 More Than Looks 7/2 - Just think hes the best horse in here with the most upside to boot. In particularly I think he was much better than Carl Spackler in the Hall of Fame last year. I guess we will see if hes ready but based on the works I watched I think he is and might be the only time to get a price you can stomach if he's as good as I think.

Best Value: Race 5 #9 Charming Jim 8/1 - I know this horse is a real plodder but i thought Castellano gave him a bit of a passive ride in the last and he also lost momentum in the stretch. He seemed to be tiring anyway so I'm not sure it mattered that much but I wanted to give him a chance to turn the tables on Judge Rules today. I also might be making up a bit of a story in my head but I don't think he really likes the dirt and ran so poorly in the two dirt races off the freshening I don't think he got much out of those...so I'm viewing today as almost a second off the layoff where I'm hoping hell be more fit late and improve, he'll obviously need to.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 5 #6 Awesome Czech 5/2
Best Value: Race 7 #8 Backed by Gold 8/1

[theguarantee]

Ninja Abarrio and Bank on Anna were pretty flat Thursday.
Dots Dollar and Golden Degree were awful Saturday.
Charming Jim I thought was tons the best but was only good enough for third at 14/1. More Than Looks proved no match for Carl Spackler paying 3.80 to place.
Awesome Czech was a generous 7/2 today proving best and paying 9.70/4.50
Backed by Gold got a perfect ride by Romero paying 23/10.20

Bet: $192.00
Returned: $312.00

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 10 #4 Scrictly Taboo 6/1 - Not a flashy sort but I think can step up and beat these. I thought the race two back was very impressive and last time just did what was needed very professionally. Not exactly scared of anyone in here even though Risk Threshold was visually impressive last out...hoping that actually leads to that one being overbet.

Best Value: Race 9 #8 Charles J 8/1 - Despite what the beyers indicate I think this ones route was much stronger than the two sprints its sandwiched between...within the context of that race I thought ran much better than Wild Dancer and hopefully offers some value for the dangerous Joseph Lee/Frankie combo.

Good luck