Preakness future wager

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess it depends on the SA Derby, but Nysos likely will be under 2:1 but it's still a bad gamble, as there are a lot of ifs and a lot of time. However, I would bet him at 5:2 over Book Em Danno at 59:1 when he's probably a bigger price to even be in the race or 71:1 on Victory Avenue, a maiden who was scratched out of the FOY.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess it depends on the SA Derby, but Nysos likely will be under 2:1 but it's still a bad gamble, as there are a lot of ifs and a lot of time. However, I would bet him at 5:2 over Book Em Danno at 59:1 when he's probably a bigger price to even be in the race or 71:1 on Victory Avenue, a maiden who was scratched out of the FOY.

True.

I actually like that horse Victory Avenue a lot but wouldn’t put money on him for the Preakness. Most of these futures bets are terrible value. Even if you get lucky enough to pick the winner, the wager is made with so much missing information.

[greedyway]

Like other commenters in this thread, I could not understand why anyone would take low odds on a Field bet in a future pool.

However, looking at the Kentucky Derby Future pools since 1999, betting on the Field in each pool would have yielded an 85% return. There were 31 winning bets in the 95 possible bets over that period, returning $351.10 on $190.00 wagered, at $2.00 per bet.

There was a flat bet profit even in on Pool 1 Field bets, where the return was 45%.

So perhaps that answers why people are betting on the Field at low odds.

I’m still not interested in a low odds field bet when the average win bet for races in this period returned 18/1, but that’s just me.

My work is attached. Maybe there is a flaw in my approach or calculations, which I would be happy to hear about.

For purposes of this analysis, the first pool in any given year is considered Pool 1, and so on. There were three Pools from 1999 to 2013, four from 2014 to 2021, five in 2021 and 2022, and six in 2023. I have omitted Pool 6 in 2023.

The data - https://www.thedowneyprofile.com/der...ure-wager#2022 - presents Pool 1 in years 2013 and earlier with Pool 3 from 2014 and later, and so on.

And yes, it is small sample.