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Old 04-25-2023, 04:40 AM
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Having been named on Raise Cain last week, the Castellano/Mage move brings into question whether Ben Colebrook is running..

If not, add Skinner to the lineup..
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-25-2023 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 04-25-2023, 06:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Having been named on Raise Cain last week, the Castellano/Mage move brings into question whether Ben Colebrook is running.. If not, add Skinner to the lineup..
Colebrook tells Dave Grening they are still planning on running.. Luan Machado being mentioned as possible rider.
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Old 04-25-2023, 07:56 PM
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The Pace Cast from today's discussion with Ty..

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Old 04-25-2023, 11:13 PM
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With a decided lack of true front-running speed, it seems like most of this is debatable.

Jace's Road is listed as a front-runner yet he decidedly took back behind Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby. The only time he set the pace was in a slowly run race.

Forte usually breaks well and settles midfield. He had a terrible post in the FL Derby & was shuffled back on the first turn in the Breeder's Futurity. Don't see him trailing.

Rocket Can has always been in a stalking position early.

Confidence Game actually wired a field that included Rocket Can. He's been forwardly placed all year and was floated out not once but twice while trying to show speed by listed presser Verifying on the first turn in the quickly run Rebel. He also skipped the final round of preps so should be fresh stretching out to 10 furlongs from 8.5f.

Continuar has faced Derma Sotogake three times now; he has in front of DS early in a Japanese race, alongside him in Saudi Arabia, and less than 2 lengths away in Dubai.

Hit Show is never too far away early. However, he was used quite a bit in the Wood from the outside post; the Withers is probably a truer line where he is likely to be just behind the 2nd flight without being completely out of it.

Who knows what to make of Wild On Ice, but the horse was less than 2 lengths away of a :45+ half last time and dueled through a :44 flat half in his 2nd start. In both the 2 races where he failed to establish early position he was bumped at the start.

Mage is another head scratcher. He missed the break in the FL Derby yet ran the race of his life. That off-the-pace style might serve him best at CD as opposed to reverting to a stalking/pressing trip. His turn off foot is a huge weapon in a race like this. Will he have it if he is used early?

Finally, I would guess given Baffert's penchant for stealing big races on the front end, that Reincarnate will attempt to go straight to the front a la Medina Spirit, who reverted back to a front-running style to great--if only short term--effect after a couple of stalking trips in his prep races.

Last edited by Kasept : 04-26-2023 at 03:21 AM.
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Old 04-26-2023, 02:59 AM
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Thx Rollo! Will add the Thoro-Graph opening quarter look and Timeform Pace Projector to get their interpretations too..
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Old 04-26-2023, 03:23 AM
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #7  
Old 04-26-2023, 03:33 AM
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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