Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 34

Best bet: Race 9- #3 Caramel Swirl
Super tough race where the entire field can win. I'm very excited to bet this filly today. Got an easy prep, won here last year and I think she sits a perfect trip behind the pace, while getting first run on the closers. I just think she is the now filly and should be in the 8 to 10-1 range.

Longshot: Race 8- #3 Fluid Situation
This is a major stab. But, he worked well on the turf 9 days ago, with his rider Javier Castellano up. Is a half to a few turf winners, should be alone on the lead on a course that plays very kindly to inside speed and I love the confidence of running him here. He has all of his conditions still and Terranova thinks this is where they want to try him on grass first out. Besides, who are the world beaters in here to be afraid of? I'll take a shot at what should be 20 to 25-1.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 34

Best bet: Race 9- #3 Caramel Swirl
Super tough race where the entire field can win. I'm very excited to bet this filly today. Got an easy prep, won here last year and I think she sits a perfect trip behind the pace, while getting first run on the closers. I just think she is the now filly and should be in the 8 to 10-1 range.

Longshot: Race 8- #3 Fluid Situation
This is a major stab. But, he worked well on the turf 9 days ago, with his rider Javier Castellano up. Is a half to a few turf winners, should be alone on the lead on a course that plays very kindly to inside speed and I love the confidence of running him here. He has all of his conditions still and Terranova thinks this is where they want to try him on grass first out. Besides, who are the world beaters in here to be afraid of? I'll take a shot at what should be 20 to 25-1.

Knew Fluid Situation was a stab and he did show some sharp speed but went way too fast and stopped. Caramel Swirl ran into a buzzsaw but did get up for a second at a ridiculous 15-1 and paid $12.20 to place

Meet totals
$272 wagered
$295.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 35
Last week, 6 more days of the best meet in the world. Hopefully we can finish off strong.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Baby Blythe
She was a best bet earlier in the meet, was going way too long, was very rank early chasing a slow pace and stopped. Back to the right distance, should get speed to help her run and I have always thought she's a filly was a lot of talent. Hopefully she has one of her good days today

Longshot: Race 7- #3 Duress
Tough race where if Seven Scents shows up, the rest are probably running for 2nd. But with Keeneland right around the corner, seems like they are throwing this one away. I wanted to take a shot with Duress who I think Prat will fit like a glove. This is the right level, should be in a good spot behind speed to get first run on closers and I thought he ran better than the winner last time (who is in here) chasing the slow pace.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 35
Last week, 6 more days of the best meet in the world. Hopefully we can finish off strong.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Baby Blythe
She was a best bet earlier in the meet, was going way too long, was very rank early chasing a slow pace and stopped. Back to the right distance, should get speed to help her run and I have always thought she's a filly was a lot of talent. Hopefully she has one of her good days today

Longshot: Race 7- #3 Duress
Tough race where if Seven Scents shows up, the rest are probably running for 2nd. But with Keeneland right around the corner, seems like they are throwing this one away. I wanted to take a shot with Duress who I think Prat will fit like a glove. This is the right level, should be in a good spot behind speed to get first run on closers and I thought he ran better than the winner last time (who is in here) chasing the slow pace.

Baby Blythe was a bad pick (again). She's not very good and time to divorce from her. Duress somehow found himself dead last early, way behind the rest of the field. He closed strongly to miss a photo for 3rd but was no threat to Seven Scents

Meet totals
$280 wagered
$295.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 36

Best bet: Race 6- #7 Mo Saturdays
I'm either going to be way right about this horse or way wrong, but if he's as good as I think he is, I'm going to score out. 25k yearling buy and then brought 60k at Ocala March a few months back. Worked a good looking 10 and 1 at the sale. Been working steady since late June and it would appear that he really has picked it up since he got to Saratoga. I watched his work on 7/28, 8/20 and 8/26. On 7/28 he worked with stakes winner Masqueparade. He was under a hammerlock the entire work and finished on even terms with his workmate who went on to finish 2nd to Art Collector in the Alydar after this work.

On 8/20 he worked in company with two others. One was Gilcrease, who broke his maiden impressively a few weeks before this and a horse who hasn't started yet. They kept Mo Saturdays behind the other two and he was again under a hammerlock. When the rider got him outside the other two, he lengthened his stride and picked up Gilcrease right before the wire to outfinish him by a neck while never asked. Last time he worked with the filly Forever After All who has been 2nd in back to back MSW's at Churchill and Saratoga. This time he was on the point, again under a hammerlock, never asked and easily outworked his stablemate who was asked throughout the final furlong.

He's a 1/2 to a turf winner and while he's worked really well on dirt, I have to trust Al Stall knows what he is doing running him on grass. Maybe he's just a morning glory, but if he transfers the morning form, I think they are all running for 2nd.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Gustiamo
I think she got the standard Jose Ortiz no effort ride last time, falling back and I think she surprised him a bit when she really started running. Sibs are good, Donk typically better after a race and she just felt like the kind of horse that will really improve with a start under her belt and mows them down late.

[Dahoss]

Seriously?

[Alabama Stakes]

Losecano. Needed him for the pick 5 so you had to overcome that impost.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 36

Best bet: Race 6- #7 Mo Saturdays
I'm either going to be way right about this horse or way wrong, but if he's as good as I think he is, I'm going to score out. 25k yearling buy and then brought 60k at Ocala March a few months back. Worked a good looking 10 and 1 at the sale. Been working steady since late June and it would appear that he really has picked it up since he got to Saratoga. I watched his work on 7/28, 8/20 and 8/26. On 7/28 he worked with stakes winner Masqueparade. He was under a hammerlock the entire work and finished on even terms with his workmate who went on to finish 2nd to Art Collector in the Alydar after this work.

On 8/20 he worked in company with two others. One was Gilcrease, who broke his maiden impressively a few weeks before this and a horse who hasn't started yet. They kept Mo Saturdays behind the other two and he was again under a hammerlock. When the rider got him outside the other two, he lengthened his stride and picked up Gilcrease right before the wire to outfinish him by a neck while never asked. Last time he worked with the filly Forever After All who has been 2nd in back to back MSW's at Churchill and Saratoga. This time he was on the point, again under a hammerlock, never asked and easily outworked his stablemate who was asked throughout the final furlong.

He's a 1/2 to a turf winner and while he's worked really well on dirt, I have to trust Al Stall knows what he is doing running him on grass. Maybe he's just a morning glory, but if he transfers the morning form, I think they are all running for 2nd.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Gustiamo
I think she got the standard Jose Ortiz no effort ride last time, falling back and I think she surprised him a bit when she really started running. Sibs are good, Donk typically better after a race and she just felt like the kind of horse that will really improve with a start under her belt and mows them down late.

Gustiamo was closer early but had nothing when the real running started.

I was very right about Mo Saturdays, who went off at 10-1. Off a beat slow, moved his way up methodically inside, got a fantastic ride by Lezcano, split horses in the stretch like an old pro but could not get up late and had to settle for 2nd, beaten about a half, paying $7.30 to place. Not even worth getting into just how much that 1/2 length cost me but needless to say it was VERY costly. Between this and Fuoco it could have been my best meet ever. Still a good meet, just costly misses.

Meet totals
$288 wagered
$302.90 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 37

Best bet: Race 9- #10 Union Lake
Big scratch of Smash Ticket makes Hot Peppers job a bit easier but I wouldn't be shocked to see Tyler send hard from the rail, that filly was very fast at one point in her career. Just feels like Union Lake is the now horse. Was very impressive breaking her maiden and came back to validate it last time. Should be in perfect spot perched off speed.

Longshot: Race 8- #3 Proven Strategies
Lots of back class here and has found a career revival sprinting. Very little speed in here so if ridden aggressive early can be close and maybe outsprint them late

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 37

Best bet: Race 9- #10 Union Lake
Big scratch of Smash Ticket makes Hot Peppers job a bit easier but I wouldn't be shocked to see Tyler send hard from the rail, that filly was very fast at one point in her career. Just feels like Union Lake is the now horse. Was very impressive breaking her maiden and came back to validate it last time. Should be in perfect spot perched off speed.

Longshot: Race 8- #3 Proven Strategies
Lots of back class here and has found a career revival sprinting. Very little speed in here so if ridden aggressive early can be close and maybe outsprint them late

Proven Strategies was bad and a bad pick. Union Lake might have been a tad too close to the hot pace but was no match for Wicked Halo who has found her best form again and the fast closing Sterling Silver who got all that pace to run at and was 3rd best.

Meet totals
$296 wagered
$302.90 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 38

Three days left in the meet and just a fantastic day of racing across the country. Stakes and full fields coast to coast. Let's get lucky today!

Best bet: Race 9- #5 Graded on a Curve
Lost all chance around the turn last time when he ran up into a longshot that was stopping in front of him. He checked and then altered course trying to get around. The race was dominated on the front end by horses who ran 1-2-3 around the track. Finds a field with was more pace signed on and should be a square price.

Longshot: Race 7- #7 Hoist the Gold
been keeping really good company as of late and takes appropriate drop. Was second to Jack Christopher last year here, sharp breeze in preparation for this and should get lots of pace to run in to. Hoping to find some Dallas Stewart magic

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 38

Three days left in the meet and just a fantastic day of racing across the country. Stakes and full fields coast to coast. Let's get lucky today!

Best bet: Race 9- #5 Graded on a Curve
Lost all chance around the turn last time when he ran up into a longshot that was stopping in front of him. He checked and then altered course trying to get around. The race was dominated on the front end by horses who ran 1-2-3 around the track. Finds a field with was more pace signed on and should be a square price.

Longshot: Race 7- #7 Hoist the Gold
been keeping really good company as of late and takes appropriate drop. Was second to Jack Christopher last year here, sharp breeze in preparation for this and should get lots of pace to run in to. Hoping to find some Dallas Stewart magic

9th yesterday was a strange race. Four riders decided to choke their mounts back and Manny Franco on Graded on a Curve decided to make no attempt to save ground. He was bad and the winner got a flawless ride.

Hoist the Gold ran into another buzzsaw but was 2nd at 15-1, paying $9.30 to place

Meet totals
$304 wagered
$312.20 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

[casp0555]

nice hangover capping hossy

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by casp0555

nice hangover capping hossy

Thank you buddy

[Sethcarter]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

Nice work!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Nice work!

Thanks Seth

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 39

IMO one of the tougher cards of the meet and my hangover isn't helping.

Best bet: Race 3- #4 Forever Dreaming
I think she was facing much, much better earlier this year in New Orleans and Kentucky. She should be able to sit a perfect trip in 3rd right behind the speed and take over coming into the stretch and hold off the closers. And ultimately I think the other contenders have a lot of holes, whereas I think this is a reasonable drop for her to a spot she should flourish.

Longshot: Race 9- #2 Barrel of Quests
I'm stabbing here and I get why the entire world likes Timbuktu who was wide on the inner last out throughout. But he didn't do much running and isn't most reliable sort and will be way overbet. He'll be on my multi's but I'm not crazy about him. I like Barrel of Quests off a no shot ride by (who else) Jose Ortiz. He projected to be the clear pace setter (and his trainer said he would be pre race) against a few horses that would be odds on in here and Ortiz took him back. He had no shot that day and I'm glad to see Donk switched riders. Two back he was just behind a horse who won the Timbuktu race last time. He's run better when he is involved early and there is very little speed in here. I'm hoping Dylan sends and takes them a long way

Forever Dreaming got the trip I envisioned and showed her class wearing down the pacesetter late to pay $16.80 to win and $8.20 to place.

Barrel of Quests kind of got a more aggressive ride but ultimately isn't good enough.

Meet totals
$312 wagered
$337.20 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 40

Last day of what has been a very enjoyable and profitable meet. I'm always reminded that this is the best game in the world because while luck plays a small part, you truly do get out what you put in.

Best bet: Race 10- Cocktail Moments
I flirted with putting Cupid's Heart here in the last. I've been waiting a long time for her return off a ride I wasn't crazy about last time and I think she's very good, but I think she'll be too short oddswise. I went with Cocktail Moments in the 10th. Looks like Junior (or his agent) had a choice here and ends up here. This is a talented filly who was dull last time but got a little break and has been working well in preparation for this. Is drawn well, figures to sit a good trip and will be a handful in the lane

Longshot: Race 6- #3 I'm Fine
I prefer her on grass, but if the race gets moved off she's not bad on dirt, so I will keep her here dirt or turf. Sat a decent trip last time but then had big trouble early stretch. Appeared to have run and a tiring horse backed up right into her. She checked hard and tried to get around, losing all momentum. Freshened since then, prior turf form fits and she should be every bit of the ML if not higher

[blackthroatedwind]

Too bad you drove everyone off the board, Dahoss, before they got to see this sensational display of handicapping.

At least a certain someone lied with his "I'm leaving" post.