Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

I need to start doing a better job of anticipating interest in these longshots because I wouldn’t have bet my “best value” in a million years at 7/2.

[Alabama Stakes]

Soft morning lines might have something to do with it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Soft morning lines might have something to do with it.

Aragona is usually good. He’s missed a few times this meet. It happens.

[Alabama Stakes]

It’s a tough job no doubt. Much sharper at Belmont and Aqueduct

[moses]

Be the Boss was overbet and ran poorly. Running Bee was never really in doubt, though only went off at 2/1 returning $10.40 total.

Total wagered: $160.00
Total returned: $125.90

Thursday, August 11.

Best bet: Race 9 - #10 Derrynane 5/1 ML, Clement/Rosario. I suspect that Poppyflower and Empress Tigress will be the two horses people look at from the Coronation Cup and both those horses ran well and deserve that interest. But I thought Derrynane just had a really awkward trip. There were multiple spots where she came close to steadying, just didn't seem comfortable for most of the race, then lacked room at the top of the stretch and had to awkwardly move out to get running room. I think breaking from the outside, she'll hopefully not have to deal with any of that. The chart says she made up almost 53 lengths in the stretch and while we know that's wrong, she did put in a strong effort once she got into the clear. Looking for her to run big here at a square price.

Best value: Race 10 - #10 Bavarian Creme 8/1 ML, Hennig/Prat. I don't know if this horse is going to go off at 8/1 a few of the horses from that MSW turf race on May 30th have come back to win, including Dream Central who has won two stakes races since then. Plus, Prat is aboard. This one did seem to have another gear that it kicked into in the stretch and I liked the professionalism she showed when asked for more. Not seeing any horse that really stands out in this group, I think she's worth a stab at 8/1.

[theguarantee]

Best bet - Race 4 #3 Ruse 3/1
I just think he’s the best of these and exits a race where he did most of the dirty work and came up short. I expect a much cleaner trip today and think that puts him in the winners circle.

Best value - Race 10 #11 Succulent 10/1
I seem to be landing on a lot of Dylan horses of late which is unintentional but no mind to me. With this one I just like the steady improvement since getting on the right surface. Has yet to hit the board but is working toward that and going to be a great price today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best bet - Race 4 #3 Ruse 3/1
I just think he’s the best of these and exits a race where he did most of the dirty work and came up short. I expect a much cleaner trip today and think that puts him in the winners circle.

Best value - Race 10 #11 Succulent 10/1
I seem to be landing on a lot of Dylan horses of late which is unintentional but no mind to me. With this one I just like the steady improvement since getting on the right surface. Has yet to hit the board but is working toward that and going to be a great price today.

Good luck. I know David Aragona has been waiting for Ruse to run back so I looked closely at him but I’m skeptical of that horse in this race as Cotton runs again and Not Phar Now is added to the mix. There’s a decent chance he gets caught up in the pace again.

I know you didn’t ask but wanted to add because I was strongly considering him…just nervous about the pace scenario. I’m probably going to watch odds on this one. Tough race, though I want no parts of Barrage or Straw into Gold at short prices. I may take a shot on Cotton if he ends up 12/1 or higher.

[theguarantee]

Friday, 8/26
Not that interested in today's card once it went off the turf.

Best Bet - Race 8 #1 Ice Princess 8/1
Will obviously be much shorter now, seems like the only one I can really make to beat Make Mischief with.

Best Value - Race 9 #10 Quickflash 15/1
Key Point might be a cinch but think Quickflash can outrun odds and maybe hit the board. Not much of a winning type but stranger things have happened.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Be the Boss was overbet and ran poorly. Running Bee was never really in doubt, though only went off at 2/1 returning $10.40 total.

Total wagered: $160.00
Total returned: $125.90

Thursday, August 11.

Best bet: Race 9 - #10 Derrynane 5/1 ML, Clement/Rosario. I suspect that Poppyflower and Empress Tigress will be the two horses people look at from the Coronation Cup and both those horses ran well and deserve that interest. But I thought Derrynane just had a really awkward trip. There were multiple spots where she came close to steadying, just didn't seem comfortable for most of the race, then lacked room at the top of the stretch and had to awkwardly move out to get running room. I think breaking from the outside, she'll hopefully not have to deal with any of that. The chart says she made up almost 53 lengths in the stretch and while we know that's wrong, she did put in a strong effort once she got into the clear. Looking for her to run big here at a square price.

Best value: Race 10 - #10 Bavarian Creme 8/1 ML, Hennig/Prat. I don't know if this horse is going to go off at 8/1 a few of the horses from that MSW turf race on May 30th have come back to win, including Dream Central who has won two stakes races since then. Plus, Prat is aboard. This one did seem to have another gear that it kicked into in the stretch and I liked the professionalism she showed when asked for more. Not seeing any horse that really stands out in this group, I think she's worth a stab at 8/1.

Well, I've lost my last dollar betting on Derrynane and Bavarian Creme was just not very good after being bet down.

Total wagered: $168.00
Total returned: $125.90

Best bet: Race 3 - #1 Saint Selby 4/1 ML, Atras/Carmouche. Conventional wisdom here is that there is a lot of speed which should set up for a stalker or closer but I'm going to buck that here and hope for a nice price on what I think is a pretty nice horse. Carmouche is going to have to get this horse forward from the start but that's basically what he does best. Note, closers are not running particularly well at 6 furlongs at Saratoga so while My Boy Tate may seem appealing, I'm not sure I want to bet money on him. Ny Traffic could be tough but I don't want any part of him at what will likely be very short odds. Looking for a wire to wire winner here.

Best value: Race 10 - #4 Sinfully Sweet 10/1 ML, Casse/McCarthy. I don't see a ton of pace in here so while Sinfully Sweet has generally run in turf sprints, I think this could turn into a turf sprint when they hit the stretch. If that's the case, I want her as I believe she is the most talented turf horse in this field and I'm willing to overlook my lukewarm feelings about Casse/McCarthy to take a shot on a talented horse that should be a nice price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 5 #6 Eagle in Love.
Feels like the Atras barn is starting to wake up and the last at this distance was too bad to be true. Obviously had the issues at the break and the fact that they are wheeling back at the same distance tells me that’s a line through race.

Best Value - Race 7 #8 Storm Kiss
Not surprised Corrales was switched to Johnny V but happily surprised they did it early enough for bettors to take note. Will say Corrales being named is what first drew my eyes here even though I probably should’ve realized it was typical Ward…that said after rewatching the replays and checking the pedigree I kept coming back to this one. I’m a little concerned about the distance but I think the turf is going to be much better off that dirt effort which looked to me like she didn’t really handle it but her speed carried her a bit. I also thought she broke a little sharper in there and if she can do that again today whereas she was a touch tardy in her synth starts before rushing up showing bigtime speed…she could prove tough to catch in here.