Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 11
Weather may be an issue, hopefully the rain holds off.

Best bet: Race 4- #3 Two for Charging
Looked like he needed a race in his debut where he showed little speed and put in a nice run for 3rd. Last time he broke on top and was right on a pace that fell apart. Seems to be working well and I think Prat works out a good trip for this one.

Longshot: Race 7- #6 Thin White Duke (turf only)
This one has ran well sprinting earlier in his career. I think he ran into a good one last time and I like the cutback. Donk barn still going well and I think he gets lost on the board.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 11
Weather may be an issue, hopefully the rain holds off.

Best bet: Race 4- #3 Two for Charging
Looked like he needed a race in his debut where he showed little speed and put in a nice run for 3rd. Last time he broke on top and was right on a pace that fell apart. Seems to be working well and I think Prat works out a good trip for this one.

Longshot: Race 7- #6 Thin White Duke (turf only)
This one has ran well sprinting earlier in his career. I think he ran into a good one last time and I like the cutback. Donk barn still going well and I think he gets lost on the board.

Two for Charging showed the debut was no fluke, coming off the pace to run down the favorite, paying $16 and $6.60. Thin White Duke ran a much improved race, closing fast to be second behind a horse who is probably heading for stakes, and paid $5.70 to place

Meet totals
$88 wagered
$120.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 12
Another day where I struggled with the card.

Best bet: Race 8- #5 Anaconda
This horse has teased with some big ability at times. His debut was strong, they tried him two turns, back to sprinting and then he was off for 13 months. His return this January was very good, then they stretched him back out where he ran a decent 3rd behind the eventual SF Mile winner. Went down the hill after that, got a very passive ride early and then put in a good late run. Another passive ride last time and again put in a decent run. Was a private purchase after his last and ends up in a very shrewd barn who adds blinkers. I think we see the good Anaconda today.

Longshot: Race 5- #7 Sebaray
I know Sweeping Giant towers over this field on paper but this seems like such a questionable drop. They paid $350k for him, he ran back to back seconds in his first two and then had trouble in a stake. Why show up today for 40k? I'm going with Sebaray. He ran much better first time in the Ray Handal barn than he had shown for Marya Montoya and was meant for turf that day. Plenty of grass pedigree on the dam side as she has produced a few turf winners including a stakes winner and stakes placed horse. Would like to see Dylan Davis aggressive early with him and should be a very fair price.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 12
Another day where I struggled with the card.

Best bet: Race 8- #5 Anaconda
This horse has teased with some big ability at times. His debut was strong, they tried him two turns, back to sprinting and then he was off for 13 months. His return this January was very good, then they stretched him back out where he ran a decent 3rd behind the eventual SF Mile winner. Went down the hill after that, got a very passive ride early and then put in a good late run. Another passive ride last time and again put in a decent run. Was a private purchase after his last and ends up in a very shrewd barn who adds blinkers. I think we see the good Anaconda today.

Longshot: Race 5- #7 Sebaray
I know Sweeping Giant towers over this field on paper but this seems like such a questionable drop. They paid $350k for him, he ran back to back seconds in his first two and then had trouble in a stake. Why show up today for 40k? I'm going with Sebaray. He ran much better first time in the Ray Handal barn than he had shown for Marya Montoya and was meant for turf that day. Plenty of grass pedigree on the dam side as she has produced a few turf winners including a stakes winner and stakes placed horse. Would like to see Dylan Davis aggressive early with him and should be a very fair price.

Anaconda was horrible. Slow early and never involved. I couldn't have had the winner anyway. Sebaray ran a decent third. Maybe a more aggressive ride and he's second, but was never beating the winner.

Meet totals
$96 Wagered
$120.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 13
Another very difficult day, but fantastic betting card

Best bet: Race 10- #3 Orchestration
I know a lot of people are going to gravitate towards Capensis for good reason. he was super impressive in his debut, validating the hefty purchase price. I have no real knock against him, but I want to see him do it again and the post is no bargain. I thought Orchestration looked like a runner with a nice future last year. Not the best ride in his debut, broke maiden here and then was sawed off at Keeneland when he was really moving well. Layoff a concern obviously but should be a rare Chad Brown/Irad horse that isn't overbet.

Longshot: Race 5- #7 Big Bobby
By no means am I in love with this horse, but I thought this was a race full of speed and wanted to take a runner who I thought would be coming late. Total no show in return, but good to see no dramatic drop and he's improved in his second start off the break each time he has had a layoff. Will be every bit of his 10-1 ML and if he can still run at all, should get conditions suited for him

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 13
Another very difficult day, but fantastic betting card

Best bet: Race 10- #3 Orchestration
I know a lot of people are going to gravitate towards Capensis for good reason. he was super impressive in his debut, validating the hefty purchase price. I have no real knock against him, but I want to see him do it again and the post is no bargain. I thought Orchestration looked like a runner with a nice future last year. Not the best ride in his debut, broke maiden here and then was sawed off at Keeneland when he was really moving well. Layoff a concern obviously but should be a rare Chad Brown/Irad horse that isn't overbet.

Longshot: Race 5- #7 Big Bobby
By no means am I in love with this horse, but I thought this was a race full of speed and wanted to take a runner who I thought would be coming late. Total no show in return, but good to see no dramatic drop and he's improved in his second start off the break each time he has had a layoff. Will be every bit of his 10-1 ML and if he can still run at all, should get conditions suited for him

Capensis was indeed vulnerable at even money (!) and was off the board. Orchestration ran well and maybe would've won if he was able to get out a bit sooner. He did win the photo for 2nd, paying $6.10 to place.

Big Bobby took way more money than I was thinking, going off at 5-1. The pace meltdown didn't really materialize (shocking in NY) and Big Bobby ran well to finish a non threatening 3rd.

Meet totals
$104 wagered
$126.70 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 14
End of the second week already and for all of the days where I have not liked many cards, I really like todays card. Which means I'll probably go 0 for 10.

Best bet: Race 5- #9 Baby Blythe
I flirted with putting a few horses in this spot but ultimately landed on a horse I have thought highly of since her debut. Post is no bargain with the run into the far turn, but I think Baby Blythe has shown hints of ability a few times in her career. Two back she needed one behind a crawling pace and won the match race last time, somehow as the 2nd choice. She exploded here last year to a big one, albeit over the widener and hopefully she gets a little pace to run at. I think 3rd off the layoff we see her best and I'm hoping she shows up with her "A" race because ultimately I think she's the best horse in here

Longshot: Race 8- #1 L'Imperator
Not a longshot per se, but I think this one will be the longest shot of the 5 in here. Tough to make much out of his race two back in the bog, but I thought his race last time was much better than it looked. Cancel yanked him off the lead as his uncoupled stablemate stole the race. He was putting in a run when he had to pause in traffic and was still coming. LOVE the rider switch to Manny who should be aggressive from the inside and I think he can win this on the lead or right off. Another rare price on a Chad horse