Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

Whoops. Didn't realize that you saw this already. Definitely would have been nice to have more notice.

[jms62]

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

At the point they took it off they could have waited 10 minutes to announce it and we don't have this rules issue. Isn't there possible repercussions from the gaming commission on this? Those that had the winner and hit the P5 really have a right to be PO'd. I think this decision was made to placate the masses complaining on Social Media about the late surface change and they didn't take a breath and think it through.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

At the point they took it off they could have waited 10 minutes to announce it and we don't have this rules issue. Isn't there possible repercussions from the gaming commission on this? Those that had the winner and hit the P5 really have a right to be PO'd. I think this decision was made to placate the masses complaining on Social Media about the late surface change and they didn't take a breath and think it through.

Obviously I agree it was handled poorly from the beginning.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

It's a Gamble was AWFUL. Mia Bea Star got up for 2nd, paying $5.80 to place.

Meet totals
$48 wagered
$70.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

I think both picks are still running.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$70.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 8
For a Saturday at Saratoga I thought this card was pretty blah. Treading lightly.

Best bet: Race 3- #3 Jane Grey
Was a sharp debut winner here 2 summers ago as a 2 year old. Missed about 22 months and came back last time at Belmont finishing 2nd behind a horse who ran pretty blah here the other day. But, there is definitely some talent here and the fact she's back relatively soon off the long break is a plus. I think she sits a good trip behind the speed and wins well in here.

Longshot: Race 10- #2 Miss J McKay
Not really a longshot per se, but more of a best value kind of play. I think she'll be 4th choice in here which should translate to her ML range. She was very good 2 back. Last time she didn't have the smoothest of journeys and I think she projects a great trip in here behind the abundance of speed. I expect the perfect inside/out from Irad and hopefully she's up in time

Two a days ... same as your masturbation regimen ... have a look at my Saratogo Thursday Pic5 ... it only paid me $12,000 ... your buddy Byk has it posted to his Twitter ... good luck with your Monopoly Money ... and ... how is your mamma ??? Still making hot cereal for ya in the morning ..

With Afliction (yours),

The Dancer

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 8
For a Saturday at Saratoga I thought this card was pretty blah. Treading lightly.

Best bet: Race 3- #3 Jane Grey
Was a sharp debut winner here 2 summers ago as a 2 year old. Missed about 22 months and came back last time at Belmont finishing 2nd behind a horse who ran pretty blah here the other day. But, there is definitely some talent here and the fact she's back relatively soon off the long break is a plus. I think she sits a good trip behind the speed and wins well in here.

Longshot: Race 10- #2 Miss J McKay
Not really a longshot per se, but more of a best value kind of play. I think she'll be 4th choice in here which should translate to her ML range. She was very good 2 back. Last time she didn't have the smoothest of journeys and I think she projects a great trip in here behind the abundance of speed. I expect the perfect inside/out from Irad and hopefully she's up in time

Jane Grey was no match for the sharp Terranova repeater, but got up for 2nd paying $4.30 to place. Miss J McKay had the trip from hell, losing at least 2 lengths the first time she had to check and then another 2-3 when she checked around the turn. Rallied to finish 4th, beaten 3/4's of a length. Safe to say she was best, but did me no good.

Meet totals
$64 wagered
$74.90 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

I believe Race 3 is off the turf. Which is weird since the MTOs appear to be scratched.