They'll be Hanging From the Rafters at the Big A Friday

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Taake the Bluff wins it - Jazil 2nd and one of the coupled entries was third.

Impossible to really see anything for the fog. looks like Jara started him a bit late but he really didn't show the closing speed you would have expected.

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end. Looks like he isn't any faster that he'll be a factor at 8.5 to 9 furlongs. Time to start building a campaign around the 9.5 to 10 furlong stakes. Can't believe he went at less than even money here.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end.

That is a closer.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

That is a closer.

I consider a closer a horse that sits back and turns it on at the end. He doesn't do that, he runs the same pace the whole way. I'd consider him a plodder which sounds insulting but he's at least a very good plodder.

He is the Giacomo of the East Coast. But I would bet on Giacomo before Jazil.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I consider a closer a horse that sits back and turns it on at the end.

Good luck finding one of those on dirt.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Good luck finding one of those on dirt.

Sun King

[Slewstoo]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Sun King

I didn't know you were such a Sun King fan Sightseek

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Good luck finding one of those on dirt.

There are plenty of horses like that. Horses that have the speed to compete at shorter distances because they vary their speed early from race to race and come late with one big burst. Afleet Alex was like that, able to win stakes at 6 and 12 furlongs. Even Steppenwolfer has a burst of speed at the end even if it hasn't been helping him get in the winner's circle. Jazil just runs the same speed the whole way, that doesn't get it done at shorter distances. If you look at the fractions today Jara screwed up and rode the horse like he was a closer rather than a plodder. He kept him far off the pace when it went through in almost 24, 48, and 1:12. Jazil could have been close to that pace and still kept his 24- 25 clip through the finish line. Once he is way behind a 1:12 he doesn't have that closing kick to go win the race. Jara gave the horse no chance.

[ManilaRose]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There are plenty of horses like that. Horses that have the speed to compete at shorter distances because they vary their speed early from race to race and come late with one big burst. Afleet Alex was like that, able to win stakes at 6 and 12 furlongs. Even Steppenwolfer has a burst of speed at the end even if it hasn't been helping him get in the winner's circle. Jazil just runs the same speed the whole way, that doesn't get it done at shorter distances. If you look at the fractions today Jara screwed up and rode the horse like he was a closer rather than a plodder. He kept him far off the pace when it went through in almost 24, 48, and 1:12. Jazil could have been close to that pace and still kept his 24- 25 clip through the finish line. Once he is way behind a 1:12 he doesn't have that closing kick to go win the race. Jara gave the horse no chance.

I'm not on the Jara bandwagon but nobody would've won on him today. You won't ever see him close to the pace because the horse has no early speed at all. Second and most importantly, he was visibly tired at the end and being closer to the pace certainly wouldn't have helped him finish any stronger. How good is he? I don't know, but he should certainly improve off the start as it appears he needed the race and got something out of it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ManilaRose

I'm not on the Jara bandwagon but nobody would've won on him today. You won't ever see him close to the pace because the horse has no early speed at all. Second and most importantly, he was visibly tired at the end and being closer to the pace certainly wouldn't have helped him finish any stronger. How good is he? I don't know, but he should certainly improve off the start as it appears he needed the race and got something out of it.

Here were his fractions through 4 furlongs in each of his past races, all at a longer distance than yesterday's race was run:

9f Allowance GP - 48.80
Fountain of Youth - 48.90
Wood Memorial - 48.34
Kentucky Derby - 48.79
Belmont Stake - 49.04

Yesterday - 49.51

So in all of his five races he went at least three lengths faster in the early going than yesterday even though those races ranged from 9 to 12 furlongs. This wasn't a case where he couldn't have gone faster early. It was a case that his jockey had become so used to coming from deep that he ran the race as if he had to come deep when the horse should have been sitting 5-6 lengths off the slow pace early.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Good luck finding one of those on dirt.

No horse that I have seen in my lifetime had a good of a closing kick as Victory Gallop.

Concern was a close second

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

No horse that I have seen in my lifetime had a good of a closing kick as Victory Gallop.

Concern was a close second

You must not have seen Silky Sullivan.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You must not have seen Silky Sullivan.

Nope.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's never really been a closer, he just runs the same speed all race so passes tiring horses at the end. Looks like he isn't any faster that he'll be a factor at 8.5 to 9 furlongs. Time to start building a campaign around the 9.5 to 10 furlong stakes. Can't believe he went at less than even money here.

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

Than how do you differentiate a "plodder"?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Than how do you differentiate a "plodder"?

Jazil :P

Just kidding. A plodder is a closer who never wins!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

Jazil :P

Just kidding. A plodder is a closer who never wins!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

That is the definition of a closer. Think about this:

You have a 6F sprint, with two main contenders; a deep closer and a frontrunner.
The frontrunner goes :22, :46, 1:12 and wins by a neck.
The closer is 7 lengths at the first call, 4 at the 2nd call, and loses by the neck.
What fractions did the front runner run? :22, :24, :26.
What fractions did the closer run? approximately :23 1/5, :23 2/5, :25 2/5.

Nearly all horses decelerate on the dirt, very few can and do accelerate at the end of the race. It's an optical illusion that the "closers" are actually running faster at the end than they did at the beginning... they're just decelerating at a lesser rate.

And the difference is that you will never see Jazil throw those sort of fractions. His best races have all been run in fractions between 24 and 25 the whole way. The mistake today was in taking him back too far early so that he was running slower than 25. It is a total oversimplication to categorize any horse who starts from deep as a closer. There are two totally different groups of horses that start near the back. The closers are the ones that have a late kick that will be better or worse depending on how fast they are forced to go early. The plodders are the horses that just run the same speed the whole way. You have late pace in your figures. You have to have seen that there are certain of your closers that have a late kick that totally varies dependant on how fast they go early and others, like Jazil, that are remarkably similar every race. Those ones actually probably have their late speed improve with added distance in your figures since finishing between 24 and 25 at 12 furlongs is much more impressive than at 6 furlongs.