Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Things have been pretty ugly for me lately. I'm now at:

Wagered: $160.00
Returned: $74.10

Wednesday August 18th

Best bet: Race 6 - #6 Gailhorsewind, 3/1 ML (Rice/J.Ortiz). I still think that this is a very talented turf horse and I'm going to buy-in with the rider switch and the addition of blinkers. I also wouldn't be shocked to see that 3/1 ML price drift up a bit and if that happens, I'm all over this one.
Alternate: Race 4 - #3 Blewitt, 2/1 ML (Pletcher/Saez). There is some rain in the forecast so it's possible that the turf races end up off. If so, I like Blewitt as the lone speed in this one and expect him to run much better in his 2nd start off the layoff.

Best value: Race 10 - #9 A Colt Named Susie, 30/1 ML (Noda/Samuel). This horse drops from MSW to MCL, a move that Noda isn't particularly successful with...but the one thing Samuel probably does well is sprint and I really don't like any of the likely favorites in this one...so why not take a big swing?
Alternate: Race 8 - #3 Derrynane, 5/1 ML (Clement/Rosario). I have my doubts that we're getting 5/1 on this horse...but a solid bet at that price.

Well, my top two picks both scratched out. My alternate best bet Blewitt was able to wire the field as expected. Derrynane didn't have a great start and was never able to recover. I'm now at:

Wagered: $168.00
Returned: $82.50

Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Misty Veil, 4/1 ML (Amoss/I.Ortiz). The favorite #5 More Moonshine could be a very good horse but she benefited from a pace that fell apart in her impressive maiden debut and I can't justify betting her at even money odds. She also now will go around two turns for the first time, which distance may not be an issue for her, but I'm not sure I see much pace signed on in here and I expect the #1 Misty Veil to find herself alone on the lead. I believe Misty Veil is an improving 3 year old and should be able to repeat her last performance, especially if we get a wet track given the weather forecast.

Best value: Race 2 - #4 Osbourne, 8/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I could be wrong but I'm not sold at all on the ML favorite in this race, the #7 Big Scully and actually slightly prefer the other horse coming out of that race - the #2 Sailor Speed. But I actually don't really like either of the horses with experience and prefer to go with a first time starter here. All of them provide a little bit of intrigue but the horse that really catches my eye is the #4 Osbourne who draws Saez aboard and was shipped to Saratoga from Ellis Park where he put in a bullet workout on July 22. Moquett has yet to win a race this meet but I think he's got a good chance to win this one.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, my top two picks both scratched out. My alternate best bet Blewitt was able to wire the field as expected. Derrynane didn't have a great start and was never able to recover. I'm now at:

Wagered: $168.00
Returned: $82.50

Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Misty Veil, 4/1 ML (Amoss/I.Ortiz). The favorite #5 More Moonshine could be a very good horse but she benefited from a pace that fell apart in her impressive maiden debut and I can't justify betting her at even money odds. She also now will go around two turns for the first time, which distance may not be an issue for her, but I'm not sure I see much pace signed on in here and I expect the #1 Misty Veil to find herself alone on the lead. I believe Misty Veil is an improving 3 year old and should be able to repeat her last performance, especially if we get a wet track given the weather forecast.

Best value: Race 2 - #4 Osbourne, 8/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I could be wrong but I'm not sold at all on the ML favorite in this race, the #7 Big Scully and actually slightly prefer the other horse coming out of that race - the #2 Sailor Speed. But I actually don't really like either of the horses with experience and prefer to go with a first time starter here. All of them provide a little bit of intrigue but the horse that really catches my eye is the #4 Osbourne who draws Saez aboard and was shipped to Saratoga from Ellis Park where he put in a bullet workout on July 22. Moquett has yet to win a race this meet but I think he's got a good chance to win this one.

Osbourne is scratched so I’ll switch my best value pick to another Ron Moquett horse - Race 5 #4 Sarah Harper, 8/1 ML. Her sire won multiple graded stakes on turf in Australia at 2 and her dam broke her maiden at 2 as well so I’m hoping some of that precocity passed on to her. The recent workout is good and Irad is aboard. There are a few good looking horses in this race so this is really a tough assignment for her…but it also means she should be a pretty nice price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Osbourne is scratched so I’ll switch my best value pick to another Ron Moquett horse - Race 5 #4 Sarah Harper, 8/1 ML. Her sire won multiple graded stakes on turf in Australia at 2 and her dam broke her maiden at 2 as well so I’m hoping some of that precocity passed on to her. The recent workout is good and Irad is aboard. There are a few good looking horses in this race so this is really a tough assignment for her…but it also means she should be a pretty nice price.

Well Misty Veil ran about as well as I expected but was just 2nd best and returned $3.40 to place. Sarah Harper finished 3rd. There was a chance she could be bumped up to 2nd via DQ but it wasn’t meant to be.

Wagered: $176.00
Returned: $85.90

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Hoopla, 9/2 ML (Mott/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #6 Sister Otoole, ML 10/1 (Motion/Saez)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well Misty Veil ran about as well as I expected but was just 2nd best and returned $3.40 to place. Sarah Harper finished 3rd. There was a chance she could be bumped up to 2nd via DQ but it wasn’t meant to be.

Wagered: $176.00
Returned: $85.90

Best bet: Race 4 - #5 Hoopla, 9/2 ML (Mott/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #6 Sister Otoole, ML 10/1 (Motion/Saez)

Wagered: $184.00
Returned: $99.40

Saturday

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Maracuja, 7/2 ML (Atras/Santana)

Best value: Race 3 - #5 Pacific Gale, 6/1 ML (Kimmel/Velazquez)

[moses]

I totally missed that Major General is running race 1. I think he wins but I’ll stick with my original best bet.

[moses]

I didn’t realize that Pacific Gale is scratched. I’ll switch to the #4 Skate to Heaven in race 7.

[moses]

$192.00 wagered
$99.40 returned

Best bet: Race 1 - #6 Goddess of Fire 3/1 (Pletcher/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 10 - #5 Tallis 9/2 (Pletcher/Velazquez)