Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Saratoga is off the turf today and I’m reading Antoinette is going to scratch. So let’s go:

Best bet: Race 4 - #1/1A Dubb Entry, 7/5 ML.

Best value: Race 6 - #8 Knowing Glance, 12/1 ML (Stall/Lezcano)

Well, I would have been better off with my original picks (Antoinette scratched so money back and Luna's in Charge paid $4.30 to place). The Dubb entry disappointed with a 2nd place finish paying $2.10 and Knowing Glance ran well but could only muster a 3rd place finish.

Tally
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $24.40

I like a handful of potential mid-priced / longshot horses tomorrow so hopefully I can turn things around and pick the right ones.

Best bet: Race 4 - #7 East Wing, 6/1 ML (Lerman/Cancel). If you go back to this horse's maiden win, she settled right off the outside of the pacesetter, made a move going into the turn and just never looked back. A repeat of that performance would likely win this one. Although the pace could get hot, she draws outside of most of the speed, except the #9 Air Cavalry, so there is a decent chance that she gets a good trip. In her last race, she was steadied and then never seemed comfortable after that, flattening out in the stretch. She was outclassed in her 3 races between the maiden win and her last race so I think she's at the right class level now. I'm not sure if the addition of blinkers will help or not but given the connections, she should be a nice price given that Irad is aboard the morning line favorite Quasar for Rob Atras and Gargan sends out the 2nd choice Hollywood Gina. Quasar has 1 win in 23 lifetime starts and Hollywood Gina's one big race was on a sloppy track so I think it makes a lot of sense to try to beat the two favorites here.

Best value: Race 6 - #9 Beatbox, 5/1 ML (Brown/Castellano). I know that the morning line is always very good for NYRA tracks but the even money morning line on Cody's Wish seems absolutely insane to me. Granted, he's got talent, did not have the ideal trip last race, finished strong, and galloped out very nicely. But this will be his first race around two turns and I've lost too much money on Mott 2nd time starters thinking that they will put it all together in their 2nd race after flashing some talent in their debut. The morning line is probably right and he will take a lot of money. So I'm going to bet against him. Beatbox, a 1/2 brother to Guarana, ran alright in his last race, finishing 4th behind the #2 Absolute Courage and ahead of the #4 Vindictive. He looked a bit green in the stretch, though seemed to want to run once he altered out and got open space in front of him. If he is a horse that simply wants a clean trip, I think he'll get it from the outside post. Note the $2.1 million price tag. The owners are no doubt expecting something big from him.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I would have been better off with my original picks (Antoinette scratched so money back and Luna's in Charge paid $4.30 to place). The Dubb entry disappointed with a 2nd place finish paying $2.10 and Knowing Glance ran well but could only muster a 3rd place finish.

Tally
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $24.40

I like a handful of potential mid-priced / longshot horses tomorrow so hopefully I can turn things around and pick the right ones.

Best bet: Race 4 - #7 East Wing, 6/1 ML (Lerman/Cancel). If you go back to this horse's maiden win, she settled right off the outside of the pacesetter, made a move going into the turn and just never looked back. A repeat of that performance would likely win this one. Although the pace could get hot, she draws outside of most of the speed, except the #9 Air Cavalry, so there is a decent chance that she gets a good trip. In her last race, she was steadied and then never seemed comfortable after that, flattening out in the stretch. She was outclassed in her 3 races between the maiden win and her last race so I think she's at the right class level now. I'm not sure if the addition of blinkers will help or not but given the connections, she should be a nice price given that Irad is aboard the morning line favorite Quasar for Rob Atras and Gargan sends out the 2nd choice Hollywood Gina. Quasar has 1 win in 23 lifetime starts and Hollywood Gina's one big race was on a sloppy track so I think it makes a lot of sense to try to beat the two favorites here.

Best value: Race 6 - #9 Beatbox, 5/1 ML (Brown/Castellano). I know that the morning line is always very good for NYRA tracks but the even money morning line on Cody's Wish seems absolutely insane to me. Granted, he's got talent, did not have the ideal trip last race, finished strong, and galloped out very nicely. But this will be his first race around two turns and I've lost too much money on Mott 2nd time starters thinking that they will put it all together in their 2nd race after flashing some talent in their debut. The morning line is probably right and he will take a lot of money. So I'm going to bet against him. Beatbox, a 1/2 brother to Guarana, ran alright in his last race, finishing 4th behind the #2 Absolute Courage and ahead of the #4 Vindictive. He looked a bit green in the stretch, though seemed to want to run once he altered out and got open space in front of him. If he is a horse that simply wants a clean trip, I think he'll get it from the outside post. Note the $2.1 million price tag. The owners are no doubt expecting something big from him.

East Wing is scratched so I'm going to take a big shot here on #8 Miss Mosaic in Race 9 as my next best bet. There is a lot of speed signed on here so it's really hard to like any of the front runners, even with the apparent speed bias that we've seen at Saratoga. I thought Ain't No Elmers was impressive last out but that track played like a conveyor belt so I'm not buying into her, even if there is a speed bias at Saratoga and the pace just does not seem to favor her. Bell's The One is the obvious top horse in this race but I thought Miss Mosaic looked very game in the stretch against her and, although she's 5, she seems like she is rounding into really good dirt form. She's only got two dirt starts under her belt and they were both very solid efforts. If she can take a minor step forward here in her 3rd dirt race, she is a contender. And at the 15/1 ML, she is worth a shot, even if Bell's The One looks very, very tough to beat. I'd also note that Miss Mosaic is a half-sister to two graded stakes winners (Miss Temple City and Pricedtoperfection) though those races were won on the turf.

[knickslions2]

Don’t want to hijack your thread but that #12 horse in race 8 is my long shot play of the day. Ward gets them ready and could be sitting on a big one at a nice number. good luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Don’t want to hijack your thread but that #12 horse in race 8 is my long shot play of the day. Ward gets them ready and could be sitting on a big one at a nice number. good luck

There are a lot of price horses that I like on this card. Race 8 looks like it could produce a longshot as I'm not sold on the likely favorites at 5.5 furlongs. I could definitely see the Ward horse winning and Velazquez is aboard which is a great sign.

Race 3, I'm curious to see if there was an outside bias in the New York Stallion race that most of these are coming out of. I may take a shot on the horse Devious Mo as he got a nice inside trip in that race but just did not have anything in the stretch. Dreamer's Disease also set a pretty solid pace inside and then faded badly and I think will run better. And not a fan of the likely favorite Step Dancer.

Anyway, good luck. I never mind hearing other people's thoughts.

[moses]

My picks just sucked yesterday. I’ve now wagered $48.00 and gotten back a pathetic $24.40. I haven’t really had a chance to look super close at the card today. With weather up in the air, I’m going to try to hit the early turf races.

Best bet: Race 2 - #4 Scuttlebuzz, 9/2 ML (Rodriguez/Lezcano).

Best value: Race 3 - #12 Unleveraged, 6/1 ML (Nevin/Santana).

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

My picks just sucked yesterday. I’ve now wagered $48.00 and gotten back a pathetic $24.40. I haven’t really had a chance to look super close at the card today. With weather up in the air, I’m going to try to hit the early turf races.

Best bet: Race 2 - #4 Scuttlebuzz, 9/2 ML (Rodriguez/Lezcano).

Best value: Race 3 - #12 Unleveraged, 6/1 ML (Nevin/Santana).

Unleveraged got scratched. I’ll take a shot on the #6 Solid Tune in Race 6. 20/1 ML and currently 7/1.

[moses]

Total
$56.00 wagered
$24.40 returned

I’ve been so bad, I’m going to forego the commentary for today.

Best bet: Race 7 - #6 Winter Pool, 9/2 ML (Brown/Santana).

Best value:Race 5 - #10 Coach Bahe, 5/1 ML (Bauer/Gaffalione).