6/26: Churchill Downs (Closing Day; Cross Country P5)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CLOSING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

7-2 fave Ocean Atlantique sure looks like a turf horse..

Best Value: #2 Trident Hit 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #5 Great Escape 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Thirstforlife 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Bourbon War 6-1 3rd


5th: Fleur de Lis (G2), F&M-4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Not saying the wheels are due to come off Letruska, but she won't be getting away with another cruise control trip here..

Best Value: #1 Point of Honor 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Envoutante 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Letruska 4-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #5 Spice Is Nice 8-1 5th


6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Interesting, authentic 3yo ALW where faves look just OK. Camp Hope (12-1) adds Lasix making seasonal debut and lands BJ Hernandez who had been piloting 3-1* Ready to Pounce. Inviting price..

Best Value: #9 Camp Hope 12-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Kinetic Sky 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Tycoon 10-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Ready to Pounce 3-1 7th


7th: War Chant, 3yo, 1m-T (Derby City P6, P3, DD)

.20 Derby City P6 Force Out Starts Here..

More 3yo's, this time turfing with Classic Season emigres Starrininmydreams SCR & Helium moving to the lawn. Helium has done little wrong, including over-performing in Derby off long layoff. Established likely surface aptitude on WO synthetic at 2. El Kabong SCR (8-1) feels like value inclusion, improving with every start for crafty Rusty..

Most Likely: #7 Helium 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Royal Prince 3-1 2nd


8th: Debutante, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Repeat of debut by tractable Ontheonesandtwos would be more than enough to beat these unless someone makes a significant forward move..

Most Likely: #8 Ontheonesandtwos 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Tizplenty 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Behave Virginia 9-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Wicked Halo 4-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 2-5 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-9 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
7: 5-7-8 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (4): 2x3x2x1x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
Backup (3): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 $18


P4 Grid:

5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-9 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
7: 5-7-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-7): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/2,6/8/7) Paid $83.60


CHURCHILL 9th: Bashford Manor (G3), 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Much murkier set here on the boys side of the ledger than in the Debutante. You do get a read on Lansdowne from Gunite in the 2nd..

Most Likely: #9 Red Run 7-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Shesgotattitude 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Double Thunder 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Rising Outlaw Late SCR


THISTLEDOWN 9th: Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

There's not a lot separating the top third of this field (1-Promise Keeper, 4-King Fury, 8-Keepmeinmind, 9-Proxy), and then there's the question of 10-Masqueparade off the eye-popping Derby Day ALW effort. 7-The Reds & 5-Ethical Judgement are a marginal contenders too. Fold in first Lasix (King Fury, Hello Hot Rod, Keepmeinmind), Blinkers On (Keepmeinmind) and Blinkers Off (Proxy) and you've got the makings for some wacky hyjinx..

Best Value: #4 King Fury 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Promise Keeper 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Masqueparade 8-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #8 Keepmeinmind 4-1 3rd


BELMONT 9th: Wild Applause, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

Bye Bye was stubborn stretching out in the Soaring Softly; Minaun looked like the proverbial 'any kind' in North American unveiling..

Best Value: #7 Bye Bye 9-2 7th
Next Best: #2 Minuan 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Nevisian Sunrise 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Alda 6-1 5th


CHURCHILL 10th: Wise Dan (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Hard to get past the obvious here..

Most Likely: #1 Set Piece 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #8 Field Pass 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Somelikeithotbrown 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Ride a Comet 5-1 3rd


CHURCHILL 11th: Stephen Foster (G2), 4+, 9f (DD)

Given all the multi-race wagers involved, and imagining he runs to the paper, Maxfield feels helpful to players..

Most Likely: #8 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Chess Chief 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Silver Dust 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Sprawl 10-1 3rd


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

CD 9: 9-11 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
TDN 9: 1-4-8-10 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
BEL 9: 2-7 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
CD 10: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 11: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (5-7): 2x2x2x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: Tepin, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Disappointed that Catman SCR'g Malloy (20-1), but Navratilova and Arm Candy (both 12-1) provide no shortage of value and possibility.. There's too many stretchout sprinters involved here for the pace not to be hot.. Note that Bye Bye, Invincible Gal sparing partner in the Soaring softly, will have run at 5:12p in the Wild Applause at Belmont..

Best Value: #13 Arm Candy 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Invincible Gal 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Barista 8-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Navratilova 12-1 WON ($20.80)
Hi-5 Play: #7 Adventuring 5-1 5th


P6 Grid:

7: 5-7-8
8: 8
9: 4-8-9-10-11
10: 1-3-7-8
11: 8
12: 1-5-7-12-13

.20 Play: 3x1x5x4x1x5 = 300 x .20 = $60


P5 Grid:

8: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 9-11 (A), 8-10/SCR (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-12-13 (A), - (B), 5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $12 (1-7) + $9 (4) + $18 (5-7-8)


P4 Grid:

9: 8-9-10/SCR-11 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-12-13 (A), 5-7-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $6 (4)

$0.50 Pick-4 (8/1/8/5) Paid $134.15


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

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