Sns??

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you're missing my point....


Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.

Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.

So do you think Strong Pretender is a better horse than Sun King? Sir Greeley dusted Sun King at this track and distance last year.

5-1 for Strong Pretender to win a G1 this year????? Even if he lives up to his trainers expectations he is still 5-1. There are so few opportunities to win a G1 in the older horse division and with horses like Invasor and Premium Tap coming back those chances will be further limited. Then throw in a bunch of 3yos from his crop that have as good a chance as him of moving forward (SNS, Lawyer Ron, Discreet Cat, even Steppenwolfer and Jazil plus a couple wild cards like Sunriver, Deputy Glitters, and High Cotton) and you are looking at way more than 5-1 before even including the Sun Kings and Wild Deserts and other known commodities.

The fact that Sir Greeley is a known commodity is why I love this matchup. No one can try and claim that Strong Pretender is as great as he's been made out to be if he can't beat Sir Greeley. Although I'm sure they'll try. Some mysterious anti-nag bias will have cropped up and compromised Strong Pretender.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am not going to go through the mathematical permutations but I think it is pretty fair to say that Strong Contendor is in the 16% range to win a least one Grade 1 this year. Maybe he's closer to 10% but he certainly has a very real chance. Sir Greeley has next to no chance.

Sun King is obviously a superior horse to Sir Greeley, the fact that he finished behind him in a meaningless allowance race ( coincidentally the kind of race Sir Greeley excels in ) is irrelevent to their respective talents, and I would hope you know that. Sir Greeley was on the pace, on a speed favoring track, while Sun King was wide and clearly closer than he would prefer to be. Considering their subsequent performances it would be silly to even suggest Sir Greeley is a better horse. Right now Sun King is superior to Strong Contendor but I would say Strong Contendor has more upside. He is probably more likely to win a Grade 1 in 2007 than Sun King.

Once again, I have no idea who has a better chance should these horses meet Saturday, and have made many bets ( and even won some ) on horses I believed to be inferior to their competition, but there is no doubt that Strong Contendor has MUCH more upside than Sir Greeley. Only one of them has any chance of having a big year in 2007....and it aint Mr. Greeley. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am not going to go through the mathematical permutations but I think it is pretty fair to say that Strong Contendor is in the 16% range to win a least one Grade 1 this year. Maybe he's closer to 10% but he certainly has a very real chance. Sir Greeley has next to no chance.

Sun King is obviously a superior horse to Sir Greeley, the fact that he finished behind him in a meaningless allowance race ( coincidentally the kind of race Sir Greeley excels in ) is irrelevent to their respective talents, and I would hope you know that. Sir Greeley was on the pace, on a speed favoring track, while Sun King was wide and clearly closer than he would prefer to be. Considering their subsequent performances it would be silly to even suggest Sir Greeley is a better horse. Right now Sun King is superior to Strong Contendor but I would say Strong Contendor has more upside. He is probably more likely to win a Grade 1 in 2007 than Sun King.

Once again, I have no idea who has a better chance should these horses meet Saturday, and have made many bets ( and even won some ) on horses I believed to be inferior to their competition, but there is no doubt that Strong Contendor has MUCH more upside than Sir Greeley. Only one of them has any chance of having a big year in 2007....and it aint Mr. Greeley. Arguing otherwise makes no sense.

OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.

If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit. You really don't understand how to look at this mathematically and the example you gave is WAY off course. Here's a SMALL part....if Strong Contendor ran in only two grade 1s, and was 20-1 in each, he would be under 10-1 to win a Grade 1 this year.

I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit.

I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.

I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks. Then it is three more months before there is another G1 on the east coast which means he has to stay healthy and in training and performing at a high enough level to even be entered in another G1. I think that is incredibly unlikely and that even if he does enter another G1 his chances of winning are 50-1 again.

At least Sir Greeley will almost certainly be in the Carter and Met Mile as he has been a durable horse so perhaps the 50-1 odds on him are too low if you think 35-1 is completely unrealistic.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks.

This is silly....and you know that.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is silly....and you know that.

What do you think the odds of him actually running this prep, coming out of the race well and getting to the starting gate in the Donn are? Then what do you think the odds are of his beating Invasor and Premium Tap and everyone else that shows up if he does actually make it to the race? I'd say pretty fricken slim. I'm not talking what odds you'd get on the track since those are much lower than the actual odds due to takeout. Realistically he is at 2% against those horses and 67% to actually be there which multiplied together puts him right around 75-1.

[horseofcourse]

I think it would be incredibly difficult for Strong Contender to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I think it may even be difficult for SNS to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I'm not going to make any judgement on Strong Contender til I see him run a couple races this year however. He could end up being a nice horse I think.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is silly....and you know that.

Actually, I think Sniper's 3% estimate is a much better figure than your initial 16% estimate.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Actually, I think Sniper's 3% estimate is a much better figure than your initial 16% estimate.

--Dunbar

I'm not surprised as I disagree with most of what you post.

It's not really an opinion...it's just math. Either you understand this or you don't.