![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Amazing that the second fastest Preakness in history scored a 105 beyer. I realize it’s October, not May, but seems light. Cool feat to win the Preakness and Alabama Stakes in the same year.
|
#2
|
||||
|
||||
![]() KEE Spinster S (G1): Valiance 96 (Tapit) T. Pletcher/L. Saez
KEE Bourbon S (G2): Mutasaabeq 75 (Into Mischief) T. Pletcher/L. Saez KEE Indian Summer S: Bodenheimer 82 (Atta Boy Roy) V. Lund/B. Hernandez BEL BEL Turf Sprint S (G3): Wet Your Whistle 100 (Stroll) M. Trombetta/J. Ortiz BEL Miss Grillo S (G2): Plum Ali 82 (First Samurai) C. Clement/J. Ortiz BEL Beldame S (G2): Horologist 100 (Gemologist) W. Mott/J. Alvarado SA Surfer Girl S: Madone 80 (Vancouver-AUS) S. Callaghan/F. Prat SA Zuma Beach S: Ebeko-IRE 67 (Awtaad-IRE) P. Miller/R. Gonzalez MTH Nownownow S: It Can Be Done 70 (Temple City) G. Sacco/J. Ferrer WO Vice Regent S: Not So Quiet - (Silent Name-JPN) M. Casse/R. Hernandez
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 10-05-2020 at 06:35 AM. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
After 20 years + of having access to people like Rollo, Nick Tam, Serling, CJ, and the others I have learned so much about racing, mostly through osmosis. I even bought and read Beyer on Speed to understand at a rudimentary level how figs are made. You have been on this board for decades and you still don't have even a basic understanding of how figures are scientifically assigned, its really quite an achievement. Why not spend a few hours learning why a figure is what it is and what goes into the process vs. just making some random post that is without merit and doesn't have a morsel of foundation? There are times that fig makers have genuine conflicts and diverse assessments of a race. It's really quite interesting to listen too, but you need to understand fig 101 for it to make any sense. Give it a try |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Do you have the BSF for Knick’s Go NTR in the third at Kee yesterday? He did it “geared down”.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
![]() |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
From 1993-2005: 26 different horses reach 120 in dirt races over a mile. 34 performances that were 120+ In 1997 alone, there were 12 performances that got a 121 figure or higher. From 2006-2018: 5 different horses reached 120 in dirt races over a mile. 6 performances that were 120+ I broke it down a little more. The list shows the leaderboards from 1993-2018 so 26 years. I broke them down to 1993-2005 and 2006-2018 so two 13 years segments. Here's what I found: It lists the top 27 2yo performances at any distance 1993-2005 has 19 2006-2018 has 8 2010 til now has 4 It lists the top 24 3yo performances at any distance 1993-2005 has 19 2006-2018 has 5 2010 til now has 3 It lists the top 20 sprint performances (8f and under) 1993-2005 has 18 2006-2018 has 2 2010 til now has 1 It lists the top 21 performances on dirt of more than a mile 1993-2005 has 20 2006-2018 has 1 2010 til now has 1 So while I understand that horses like Ghostzapper and Formal Gold and Cigar were special horses, am I to believe that we can't even produce horses like Sky Jack, Concerned Minister, or Stephen Got Even? Like Aptitude, Mariah's Storm, Kiridashi, or Ormsby? So maybe it's not just needing an understanding of how to make figures but also an understanding of the way the scales have changed and how to fit a figure into a historical context. For example, maybe 110 is the new 120 (not saying it is but just making the point). If you understand that, then a 105 is looked at a little different but if you try to compare numbers from today to numbers of yesterday, it will look like Swiss Skydiver's second fastest Preakness ever is still slower than the top 27 2yo horses ran from 1993-2018.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Freddy being a voice of reason is so 2020
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
I think there are several factors that lead to lower figures but not necessarily slower horses. Don’t shoot me if I have this wrong but I think I remember years ago that when they use par figures for the Beyer system, it’s based on the past three years? Is that accurate? I feel like in general, we breed lesser horses. There is such a demand on horses due to having so many tracks and so many races that they need to breed more horses and I feel like it makes the sport sacrifice quality for quantity. I once read that about 70-75% of the races in this country are under 8f so now you add in breeding more for speed than stamina. Now, add in the fact that as we get newer and younger blood in game from a human perspective, they are more and more into the “instant results” era so we are breeding more horses to be precocious early rather than the ones that develop later and improve with age. All of these things lead to less sturdy horses that run far fewer times which makes it that much harder to get a base on them. Because top horses run so infrequently now, you get a lot more slower horses running in top races and that will throw a lot of numbers way off. So I think that overall, the horses are slower than in the past but I think the best ones are still as fast as the best ones have been before. It’s worth noting that we don’t get to see as many of the top 3yo horses like American Pharoah run as older horses and that plays a part in it also.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#11
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
Couple of things...why are you so hung up on something you think are overrated and useless? There was a 2 hour break from the Defrancis to the Black Eyed Susan’s. It would appear the track sped up significantly...unless you think Miss Marissa improved like 20 points in winning the BES. Beyer and CJ seem to be in agreement over the fig. That’s good enough for me. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
![]() I don’t look at beyer numbers at all. I’m just using a common sense idea that if a filly runs the second fastest time in Preakness history, that it would get a significantly higher number than 105. As far as juicing the track up, isn’t that one of those conspiracy theories that you frown upon.
You watched the stretch, did it not appear to the naked eye that those two were running very fast ? Were you surprised the beyer wasn’t higher ? |