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#1
09-23-2020, 01:44 PM
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#2
09-26-2020, 04:29 PM
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Race 1: #12 Corre Rapido is worth a shot here in a relatively weak race. While his two wins have come on the dirt, he has always trialled well down the Sha Tin straight and looked good winning a recent trial. Race 2: Almost last chance saloon time for #14 The Full Bloom. He ran well enough in the opening race of the season but just didn’t have much to give in the last furlong. Smacked his head leaving the gates last time so let’s ignore that. Now third off the layoff and back to 1400m at Sha Tin, his favourite course and distance. Wonder what kind of trip he’ll get from gate 11, but 20-1 overnight price is too enticing. #3 Super Winner has been in the money in three of his four races over the course and distance and is now into Class 5 for the first time. #4 Nunchuks put in some decent efforts last season in Class 4 and is another who gets his first chance down in class. Race 3: #3 Best For You won twice in this class over the course and distance last year and ran on nicely in a shorter race in his season debut. Doesn’t look like much pace in this race, but he did sit just behind the leaders in one of those wins. Race 7: #4 Czarson was run down by a much better horse than what he’s facing here. Will only be about half the odds as he was that day, but still a decent enough price to go with him again. Race 8: The first Group race of the season sees the old champ #1 Beauty Generation taking on budding superstar #6 Golden Sixty. The latter is the most likely winner, carrying 18lbs lighter given the handicap conditions, but will be odds-on. The overnight price of around 25-1 on #7 Fast Most Furious is too good to pass up. I played him at similar odds in a G3 handicap towards the end of last season, and he would have won if he got a clearer run sooner, so he can definitely compete at this level. He has a decent record over this distance and has been in the money in four of five starts when coming off a layoff. I think he’s the key price to use in this race. Race 10: A few up-and-coming promising types in here, but that means there’s good prices available on some other proven performers. Specifically, #2 Mr Croissant has a 12 5-4-1 record over the Sha Tin 1200m, and that includes his last run which you can throw out (missed the start by 5 lengths). He also has a 3 1-2-0 record first off the layoff and comes into this fit---he’s done a lot of work in the mornings and has had two trials. #11 Tornado Twist is perfect over the course and distance (3 for 3), had a nice prep run over the 1000m, and gets in at 112lbs with the apprentice. Currently over 30-1, which is a big overlay for me. PLAYS: R1 WP 12 R2 WP 14 R2 EX BOX 3,4,14 R3 WP 3 R7 WP 4 R8 WP 7 R8 EX BOX 1,6,7 R10 WP 2,11 R10 QUIN 2,11/2,3,10,11,14
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#3
09-27-2020, 06:02 AM
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Bet: $179 Return: $241.10 Total: +$62.10
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#5
09-30-2020, 04:28 PM
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Sha Tin mid-week meeting this week…some relatively small fields with a few strong looking faves, but let’s see if we can get a price or two… Race 1: Not the strongest event…#8 Gintoki is the inside speed and his form isn’t too bad if you ignore his last (bled). Race 4: #8 Lucky Puzzle looked a bit better down in Class 4 with the blinkers on at the end of last season. Gets back to turf after trying the dirt first off the layoff. Hovering around 10-1 at the moment, which is a decent price. Race 5: #1 Sky Field is a very promising type and should be too good for these, as reflected by his overnight odds of 1-5. #6 Keep You Warm appeared in this thread earlier in the season when getting an awkward trip at Happy Valley…getting back to Sha Tin should be more suitable. #5 Moeraki looked much better at the end of last season with the blinkers but gave away a few lengths at the start in his last run. Let’s play these two to place and use them underneath to juice the exotics. Race 6: #3 For Fun’s Sake shows up in this thread for the third time already this season. If you would have told me before his last start that he would be hovering around 30-1 in his next start down in Class 5, I probably would have booked the bet then, and I don’t even think he ran that bad last time. Again, this is too good a price to turn down. #12 Spicy Really has also been in this thread already, and I thought that was an OK effort last time when being a little bit too far back given the shape of the race. Sha Tin looks more suitable, anyways. I marked down that #7 Speedy Dragon probably would need the run last time. He closed well into 5th and can improve on that this time. Race 9: #13 What A Legend has only been over the 1400m at ST once, when putting up some nice closing sectionals in an on-pace dominated race. His recent efforts have not been too bad and is now down to 109lbs with the apprentice. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a big effort at a good price. Race 10: #12 Amazing Chocolate was bet down to 3-2 last time but got caught wide without cover. The same can happen this time around, but he’s looked too good in his work for me to pass up double digit odds. PLAYS R1 WP 9 R4 WP 8 R5 P 5,6 R5 Q 1/5,6 R5 TRI 1/5,6/ALL (10 combinations) R6 WP 3,12 R6 EX BOX 3,7,12 R9 WP 13 R10 WP 12 Good luck!
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#7
10-01-2020, 07:22 AM
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Running total (based on minimum denomination) Bet: $225 Return: $301.10 Total: +$76.10
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