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#1
09-15-2020, 04:00 PM
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Few midweek Happy Valley plays...
Race 2: #9 Le Terroir has a very good record over the course and distance. Had been racing further back in the field towards the end of last season, but his best performances came when he was stalking or on the lead, and can get a similar trip if he wants from an inside post in a race seemingly void of much early speed. Easily won his debut last season off a similar rating, so he has good fresh form. Race 3: I’m really struggling to see how #5 The One is 10-1 on overnight odds. Other than last time out where he had a really tough trip, he has finished 7th, 3rd, 5th, 4th, and 6th over the course and distance, all in Class 4. Drops into Class 5 for the first time and draws well in gate 3. I was interested in playing #9 Spicy Really last time at a monster price, but he was quite washy in the paddock. His form prior to that was a bit dirtied up, and he looks to be moving OK in his work. Worth using underneath. Interesting that the early fav here (#4) has never been under 122-1 and has absolutely no form whatsoever. May have improved during the off-season in the new barn and did win his last trial, but he was pushed out to do so. Not for me at those odds, which are also probably lower due to the Purton factor. Race 8: The speed in here will be full throttle and #7 Heart Conquered should get a nice stalking trip from the inside draw. He put in a decent performance on the opening day of the season, and I had noted that he might need the start anyways. PLAYS: R2 WP 9 R3 WP 5, P 9 R3 EX 5,9/5,9 R8 WP 7 Good luck! 
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#2
09-16-2020, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Running total (based on minimum denomination) Bet: $84 Return: $120.40 Total: +$36.40 (made a basic error in the last calculation)
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#3
09-19-2020, 04:02 PM
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Race 2:
#3 Skyey Supreme was defeated by #1 when both were last seen, but this one is 8lbs better off, moves from post 14 to the rail, and can potentially be the controlling speed. 3-1 on the overnight odds, and while you won’t see me playing many at those prices in this thread, I think that’s decent value in a race like this. Race 5: #14 For Fun’s Sake is the first runner to show up twice in this thread. I didn’t think he ran that poorly in his first run this season, and the Sha Tin 1200m looks more suitable than the HV 1000m. Might be getting primed for his next run third off the layoff, but have to take a chance with him again because the race is weak in depth and he won’t be this kind of price next time regardless of how he performs as he’ll be down into Class 5 if he runs poorly. #6 Fortune Master is the most likely winner for me, though. Tough trip on debut when taking some money but ran a strong 4th two weeks ago. Draws the inside post here, but hard to play him to win at around 4-1 when he was 81-1 last time. #2 is the likely fav but hasn’t run in six months and likely to get a wide trip without cover or get further back than he has been to date… Race 6: #1 Classic Posh doesn’t have to get as far back as he did when last seen, and not sure anything else in here would have gotten closer than he did to the winner that day. Race 9: #9 Ping Hai Bravo: Excuse two back when beaten as the odds-on fav (blood in trachea) and was the only one to make up ground last time in slick closing sectionals. Looks to get a good trip from gate four. #1 Temple of Heaven: Closed well in his HK debut. Should benefit from the off-season and can improve. #4 Winning Dreamer: One of the promising horses to follow this season and is currently around even money on the board. I think he’s fast enough to get over and sit outside the leader, but hard to know exactly what kind of trip he’ll get from post 12. PLAYS: R2 WIN 3 R5 WP 14 R5 EX 6,14/6,14 R6 WP 1 R9 WP 9 R9 EX 9/1,4 R9 TRI BOX 1,4,9 Good luck!
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#4
09-20-2020, 04:59 AM
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Quote:
Bet: $108 Return: $133.20 Total: +$25.20
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#5
09-20-2020, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
Moreira was dominant w/ 6 wins on the card.
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#6
09-22-2020, 02:51 PM
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Quote:
3-2, 3-1, 3-2, 5-2, 3-2, 2-1 On to the next...first half of tomorrow’s card looks a bit more interesting than the latter half in terms of pick confidence…on the other hand, very competitive and intriguing final race of the day. Race 1: #5 Enjoyable Success: His best races have come at Happy Valley, with his lone win being over the course and distance. Beaten 3/4s of a length by #1 a few starts ago but is now 10lbs better off while nearly double the overnight price. Race 2: I think #11 Super Eighteen is a bit overlooked here. Had a string of tough trips last season but ended off with two good third place finishes. Gets down to 111lbs with the apprentice and should get a good trip from gate 5 in a race that's not full of early speed. #10 Destin also seems to be forgotten about. 5 1-1-1 record first off the layoff and 6 0-2-2 record at 1200m. Recent form was over a bit further at Sha Tin and is only 2 for 39 lifetime, but a must include for exotics. #2 Helaku Knight took some action last time off the barn change, but he washed out quite badly. Worth using underneath at a good price. Race 3: #9 Farm Bumper got on a roll over the course and distance last year, rolling off a win and two 2nd place finishes (by a head). Looks a decent price at around 6-1. #4 Forza Angel is drawn much better here than he was in his first run this season and is a good exotics candidate, as is #10 Travel Datuk, who has a knack of running on into a minor placing without winning. Race 4: #6 Wealthy Delight and #10 Winning Endeavour both closed strongly over 1200m last time and step up to a more suitable 1650m here. PLAYS: R1 WP 5 R2 WP 11 R2 EX 11/2,10 R3 WP 9 R3 EX 9/4,10 R4 WP 6,10 Good luck!
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#7
09-23-2020, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
 Running total (based on minimum denomination) Bet: $132 Return: $175.40 Total: +$43.40
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#8
10-03-2020, 04:00 PM
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Race 1:
#11 Proud Sky: Nothing wrong with runs at the beginning of last season before pulling up lame. Given a run out in dirt race and now back to fav course and distance. #10 Art of Raw: Has a poor record at ST but 2nd in season debut…chance to wire them. Also going to take a stab on #9 Joy N Fun Legend to place. Done absolutely nothing on the track but has had a slew of excuses. Race 3: #8 Winwin Thirtythree has never really been a poor performer and now that he’s got a win on the board (when a selection in this thread) he may have the confidence to win again despite going back up to Class 4. 10-1 is a good price. Race 4: #3 Golden Mission has finished out of the top 4 on turf only once since the barn change, and that was in his last when he was wide and without cover yet was beaten less than 2 lengths. Those were all in Class 4, so he should find this easier, and should also get a more economical run from gate 6. #4 Vital Spring has absolutely flashed home in his last two runs at HV. Back to his fav (ST 1400m) but will have it a bit tougher drawn out in post 14. #2 Lucky Guy: 9yo was still in good form at the beginning of last season before missing some time with a lameness issue. Didn’t get a clear run last time and has a chance to juice the exotics dropping down to Class 5 for the first time. Race 7: #10 Chung Wah Spirit pulled up lame after his last dirt try and in the start prior to that was beaten 5 lengths by #1 but has a 22lbs swing with that runner this time around. Nothing wrong with his season debut over shorter on the turf. PLAYS R1 WP 10, 11 R1 P 9 R3 WP 8 R4 WP 3 R4 EX BOX 2,3,4 R7 WP 10 Good luck!
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#9
10-10-2020, 04:19 PM
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Race 1:
#1 Monkey Jewellery lost in photos in his last two starts last season. Tough trip first off the layoff this time and should get a great trip in a pretty weak race. Price won’t be great, however. #3 Helaku Knight clipped heels and stumbled on the far turn last time out. Closed well to be third in his last start over the course and distance. #6 Sure Win Win didn’t put in the worst performance when taking some money on debut and had a tough trip last time out. A price to include underneath. Race 3: #1 California Levee was not disgraced at all in his Class 3 runs and now finds himself in a pretty average Class 4 event. Race 4: #9 Golden General just missed in his last try over the course and distance and has had some excuses then (wet track, HV, tough trip). Shouldn’t get any excuses in the trip from gate 6. Race 5: #8 Apex Top: Blew the start two starts ago so can ignore that, and his two runs before that weren’t bad. Faded last time but can be fitter from that here second off the layoff. Looks to get either an easy time on the lead or the perfect stalking trip here. #1 Golden Four is very consistent, with his only poor recent run coming when he had a tough trip. Weight allowance with the apprentice can only help. Race 6: #4 Super Fast: Winner over 2000m in IRE finally showed something last time…trainer change and time off over the summer seemed to spark him up. That was over 1400m, so this distance should be more suitable. The speed map has #5 Full Power potentially sitting three wide no cover, but there is very little speed in here so I think the apprentice will try to get him on the lead. Could be tough to run down from that position at a good price. Race 10: #7 California Rad took quite a few steps forward when the blinkers went on towards the end of last season. Has been racing exclusively at HV lately but should be suited by the expanses of ST and the price looks good. PLAYS R1 WIN 1 R1 EX 1/3,6 R1 TRI 1/3,6/2,3,4,6,8 R3 WP 1 R4 WP 9 R5 WP 8 R5 EX 1,8/1,8 R6 WP 4,5 R6 EX 4,5/4,5 R10 WP 7 Good luck!
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#10
10-23-2020, 04:36 PM
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Race 1:
#11 Xiang Lan Qi: His two runs at the end of last season weren’t too bad, and the 1400m may suit well. Not a very strong race so worth trying a bomb here. Race 3: #13 The Full Bloom shows up in this thread once again. Solid second last time, this race isn’t any tougher, and the price will still be decent. Race 6: #1 Easy Go Easy Win: Down into Class 3 where he won and ran second in two tries last season. Should be primed for this third off the layoff, after a first up run over 1000m and a nice tightener when back in a week later. Race 7: #12 Vigor Champ closed strongly from last in his season debut and hard to work hard early in his second-up run. He wasn’t beaten far in the end, even after checking sharply, and two horses have come out of that race and won next out. Should get a great trip from the rail post. Race 10: A very competitive race with a few promising types, but I’ll take a stab with #13 Right Choice. He has form last season that would make him competitive here, is down to 110lbs with the apprentice, and has a 5: 3-2-0 record over the course and distance. Around 75-1 on the overnight odds. PLAYS R1 WP 11 R3 WP 13 R6 WP 1 R6 Q 1/3,8,9,10 R7 WP 12 R7 Q 12/1,2,3,5,6,10,11,13 R10 WP 13 Good luck!
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#11
10-25-2020, 03:57 AM
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The two stabs I took didn't get great trips...should have played harder in R3 with the runner I'd been following for a while...
Quote:
Bet: $517 Return: $591.70 Total: +$74.70 (-$9.10 from previous)
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