9/5 (CD): Derby Trail Probables ~ 11 for Preakness with Swiss

[Betsy]

Sorry if this doesn’t belong here, but I didn’t have a chance to reply before the Travers post was archived.

Rollo, thanks for responding. I do have to strongly disagree with your negativity about the AP Indy line ...

But, Honor A.P. was the main topic, so...here goes. I’ll come out and say that I’m biased because I love his sire, I love anyone from Slew/Indy line..and I adore this colt. However, I can be objective, so...

I agree with a lot of what you said, but not all of it. I think Mike didn’t want to lose position after being slammed at the start...so he rushed up a bit. Then, because I think his intention was always to be aggressive in a tiny field - stay close to the pace- he made that first move. My friend has a real issue with that and others have as well. For me, I still blame Shirreffs (who I’ve learned a great deal from watching HAP’s works and seeing interviews on TVG) more because of the training, but...I understand your point.

What I don’t agree with is this notion that HAP has little to no speed. He closed from the clouds in his debut because he didn’t break great and Mike didn’t push, but he broke his maiden wire to wire. People forget that because it came between his flashy second under debut and his very good second in the San Felipe. He’s versatile - he can close from well out of it, stalk as in the SF or run from mid-pack as in the SA Derby. I’m not trying to convince anyone to think more highly of him than they do, but these are just the facts.

I didn’t expect or want the colt to be cranked for the Shared Belief, but I expected him to be trained like he was for the San Felipe. He wasn’t. I was seriously concerned about what HAP got out of this race, but his fantastic work a couple of days ago made me feel a little better about.

I’ve been waiting for him to go 1 1/14...beating Tiz will be tough, but I have faith. Good luck to your selections !

Sorry for being long-winded, lol.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Sorry if this doesn’t belong here, but I didn’t have a chance to reply before the Travers post was archived.

Rollo, thanks for responding. I do have to strongly disagree with your negativity about the AP Indy line ...

But, Honor A.P. was the main topic, so...here goes. I’ll come out and say that I’m biased because I love his sire, I love anyone from Slew/Indy line..and I adore this colt. However, I can be objective, so...

I agree with a lot of what you said, but not all of it. I think Mike didn’t want to lose position after being slammed at the start...so he rushed up a bit. Then, because I think his intention was always to be aggressive in a tiny field - stay close to the pace- he made that first move. My friend has a real issue with that and others have as well. For me, I still blame Shirreffs (who I’ve learned a great deal from watching HAP’s works and seeing interviews on TVG) more because of the training, but...I understand your point.

What I don’t agree with is this notion that HAP has little to no speed. He closed from the clouds in his debut because he didn’t break great and Mike didn’t push, but he broke his maiden wire to wire. People forget that because it came between his flashy second under debut and his very good second in the San Felipe. He’s versatile - he can close from well out of it, stalk as in the SF or run from mid-pack as in the SA Derby. I’m not trying to convince anyone to think more highly of him than they do, but these are just the facts.

I didn’t expect or want the colt to be cranked for the Shared Belief, but I expected him to be trained like he was for the San Felipe. He wasn’t. I was seriously concerned about what HAP got out of this race, but his fantastic work a couple of days ago made me feel a little better about.

I’ve been waiting for him to go 1 1/14...beating Tiz will be tough, but I have faith. Good luck to your selections !

Sorry for being long-winded, lol.

I’d point out that Code of Honor broke his maiden going wire to wire so that mere fact doesn’t prove anything...however, the Timeform pace projector appears to have HAP ahead of Tiz the Law early in the race. I guess we’ll soon find out how it will all play out. I haven’t really looked closely at the PPs for projected Derby horses.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by moses

I’d point out that Code of Honor broke his maiden going wire to wire so that mere fact doesn’t prove anything...however, the Timeform pace projector appears to have HAP ahead of Tiz the Law early in the race. I guess we’ll soon find out how it will all play out. I haven’t really looked closely at the PPs for projected Derby horses.

True.

What? I don’t see that....though, races never seem to play out like I think, lol

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK STAKES


$115,000 Champion’s Day Marathon Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Friday, race Tuesday, Sept.1)

Probable: Eskenforit (trainer Steve Margolis)


$150,000 Unbridled Sidney (Entries taken Saturday, race Wednesday, Sept. 2)

Bye Bye J (Steve Asmussen); Change of Control (Michelle Lovell); Dixieincandyland (Eddie Kenneally); Stonewood (Carlo Vaccarezza); Tomlin (Mike Stidham); Violent Times (Ralph Nicks)


THURBY

$200,000 Pocahontas (GII) (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1)

Alexandria (Tim Hamm); Crazy Beautiful (Kenny McPeek); Dream Quist(McPeek); Girl Daddy(Dale Romans); Trip to Seoul (James Chapman) Xtrema (Keith Desormeaux).

$115,000 Opening Verse Overnight Stakes (Entries taken Sunday, race Thursday, Sept. 1)

Crafty Daddy (Kenny McPeek); Cullum Road (Ignacio Correas IV); Hembree (Mike Maker); Mr. Misunderstood (Brad Cox). Possible: Set Piece(Brad Cox)


OAKS DAY

$300,000 Eight Belles presented by TwinSpires.com (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Four Graces (Ian Wilkes); Mundaye Call (Brad Cox) Sconsin (Greg Foley). Possible: Ocean Breeze (Wayne Catalano).

$300,000 Edgewood presented by Forcht Bank (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4) –

Beguiled (Phil D’Amato); Lucky Betty (Will VanMeter); Outburst (Eddie Kenneally) Sharing (Graham Motion).

$250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Archidust (Steve Asmussen); Carotar i(Bryan Lynch); Chaps (Eddie Kenneally); Chief Cicatriz (Shawn Davis); Diamond Oops (Patrick Biancone); Extravagant Kid (Brendan Walsh); Tell Your Daddy (Neil Pessin); Tiger Blood (Mike Maker); Well Labeled (Larry Rivelli).

$400,000 Alysheba (GII) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

By My Standards (Bret Calhoun); Hence (Jack Sisterson); Owendale (Brad Cox); Silver Dust (Bret Calhoun).

$1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Bowies Hero (Phil D’Amato); Digital Age (Chad Brown); Factor This (Brad Cox); Mr Dumas (Mike Maker); Parkland (Carlo Vaccarezza); Sacred Life (ChadBrown); Somelikeithotbrown (Maker); SpectacularGem(Jimmy Baker)

$500,000 La Troienne (GI) (Entries taken Monday, Race Friday, Sept. 4)

Lady Kate (Eddie Kenneally); Monomoy Girl (Brad Cox); Saracosa (Cipriano Contreras); She’s a Julie (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Vexatious (Jack Sisterson).

DERBY DAY

$500,000 Derby City Distaff (GI) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5) –Bell’s the One (Neil Pessin); Mia Mischief (Steve Asmussen); Sally’s Curlin (Dale Romans); Serengeti Empress (Tom Amoss); Wildwood’s Beauty (Scott Becker).

$500,000 Longines Distaff Turf Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1,Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Beau Recall (Brad Cox); Belle Laura (Juan Avila); Daddy is a Legend (Rusty Arnold); Juliet Foxtrot (Brad Cox); Newspaperofrecord (Chad Brown). Possible: She’sonthewarpath (Steve Margolis).

$500,000 American Turf (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Fancy Liquor (Mike Maker); Field Pass (Maker); King Theo (Carlo Vaccarezza); Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun); Sugoi (Mike Tomlinson); Vanzzy (Mike Pino). Possible: South Ben d(Bill Mott).

$500,000 Pat Day Mile (GII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Cezanne (Bob Baffert); Echo Town (Steve Asmussen); Liam’s Pride (Doug O’Neill); Shashashakemeup (Keith Desormeaux); Sonneman (Steve Asmussen). Possible: Attachment Rate (Dale Romans); Rushie (Michael McCarthy); South Bend (Bill Mott); Taishan (Richard Baltas)

$200,000 Iroquois presented by Ford (GIII) (Entries taken Tuesday, Sept. 1, Race Saturday, Sept. 5)

Belafonte (Tom Humphries); Drop Anchor (Kenny McPeek); Pico D’Oro (Bill Morey); Sittin On Go (Dale Romans); Super Stock (Steve Asmussen); Therideofalifetime (Ignacio Correas IV); Ultimate Badger (Romans)

[Kasept]

REVISED OAKS FIELD

Swiss Skydiver (Kenny McPeek/Tyler Gaffalione)
Speech (Michael McCarthy/Javier Castellano)
Shedaresthedevil (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux)
Project Whiskey (Butch Reid/Paco Lopez)
Donna Veloce (Simon Callaghan/Ricardo Santana Jr.)
Gamine (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez)
Hopeful Growth (Anthony Margotta Jr./Manny Franco)
Dream Marie (Matthew Williams/Joe Talamo)
Bayerness (Cherie Devaux/TBA)
Tempers Rising (Dallas Stewart/Julien Leparoux)

[Alabama Stakes]

Who will be fave ? Gamine or the Winner ?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Who will be fave ? Gamine or the Winner ?

Redundancy


(And, yes, I know Redundancy isn't even entered.)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I think Mike didn’t want to lose position after being slammed at the start...so he rushed up a bit.

That's downplaying the terrible move Smith made. He basically made a 5-wide sweep in the middle of the first turn after a 1/4 mile, way too late to be establishing early position.

What I don’t agree with is this notion that HAP has little to no speed. He closed from the clouds in his debut because he didn’t break great and Mike didn’t push, but he broke his maiden wire to wire. People forget that because it came between his flashy second under debut and his very good second in the San Felipe.

I know he broke his maiden wire-to-wire, however, to say he ran in one of the worst 2yo maiden special weights of the year in CA would be an understatement. Only the now 1-for-10 Tizamagician subsequently won a MSW, and one of the also-rans came back to win a bottom level maiden claimer before going on the bench for several months. The others are all still toiling in the maiden ranks. Honor A.P., coming off his debut in a sprint, was ripe to show more pace on the stretch-out, and probably found himself dominating the race on sheer class judging by his rivals' subsequent records.

He’s versatile - he can close from well out of it, stalk as in the SF or run from mid-pack as in the SA Derby. I’m not trying to convince anyone to think more highly of him than they do, but these are just the facts.

I don't see much difference between his trip in the San Felipe and SA Derby. He's a stalker with a strong turn move--and Smith's ride in the Shared Belief played against that style.

At any rate, the comparison was with Art Collector who is clearly more versatile than Honor A.P. having shown winning form at multiple levels, over multiple distances, with different running styles.

I didn’t expect or want the colt to be cranked for the Shared Belief, but I expected him to be trained like he was for the San Felipe. He wasn’t. I was seriously concerned about what HAP got out of this race...

I wouldn't have been, Smith made the horse run for over 3/4 of a mile and the colt still finished with good courage. If he was lacking any fitness for the Shared Belief, he probably wasn't afterwards.

...but his fantastic work a couple of days ago made me feel a little better about.

This is where I would be concerned. The classic overreaction on the part of the connections. Not only did they work the horse a mere 7 days after that gut-busting trip courtesy of Smith in the Shared Belief, but then they breezed the horse a near bullet in the afternoon over one of the most tiring surfaces in the country. Smith even went so far as to push the horse aggressively on the gallop out, needlessly giving the horse a couple of shoulder taps a few strides before standing up on him at the 7/8 pole.

A good candidate to be over-the-top come Derby day, a la Bolt d'Oro.

[Kasept]

From Jay Privman..

A few Derby updates today:

@RSantana_Jr rides Max Player, per Asmussen
@JulienLeparoux rides Storm the Court, per @EurtonRacing
@DRFGrening reports @ABeschizza rides Enforceable, per @markecasse

Also, Kiss Today Goodbye (10 pts) pointing to DMR Derby on turf, per Eric Kruljac

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

From Jay Privman..

A few Derby updates today:

@RSantana_Jr rides Max Player, per Asmussen
@JulienLeparoux rides Storm the Court, per @EurtonRacing
@DRFGrening reports @ABeschizza rides Enforceable, per @markecasse

Also, Kiss Today Goodbye (10 pts) pointing to DMR Derby on turf, per Eric Kruljac

Based on what I'm tracking, the recent activity has Shirl's Speight making the Derby gate..

[Kasept]

CURRENT DERBY FIELD WITH CONFIRMED RIDERS (BOLD)

1 Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg/Manny Franco) 372
2 Authentic (Bob Baffert/John Velazquez) 200
3 Art Collector (Tom Drury/Brian Hernandez) 150
4 Honor A.P. (John Shirreffs/Mike Smith) 140
5 Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr./Tyler Gaffalione) 110
6 King Guillermo (Juan Carlos Avila/Samy Camacho) 90
7 Thousand Words (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux) 83
8 Dr Post (Todd Pletcher/TBA) 80
9 Max Player (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana) 60
10 Caracaro (Gustavo Delgado/Javy Castellano) 60
-- Pneumatic (Steve Asmussen) 45 ~ Preakness
11 Enforceable (Mark Casse/Adam Beschizza) 43
-- Swiss Skydiver (Ken McPeek) 40 ~ Oaks
12 Rushie (Michael McCarthy/TBA) 40 ~ Pat Day Mile
13 Major Fed (Greg Foley/James Graham) 38
14 Storm the Court (Peter Eurton/Julien Leparoux) 36
15 Attachment Rate (Dale Romans/Joe Talamo) 35 ~ Not 100%
16 Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici) 30
17 Finnick the Fierce (Rey Hernandez/Martin Garcia) 25
18 Winning Impression (Dallas Stewart/Joe Rocco) 20
19 Necker Island (Chris Hartman/Miguel Mena) 14
20 Shirl's Speight (Roger Attfield/Corey Lanerie) 0
-----------------------------------------
21 Money Moves (Todd Pletcher) 0

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Based on what I'm tracking, the recent activity has Shirl's Speight making the Derby gate..

I love taking a shot but that would be silly. He’s a very good horse but that’s a tall order IMO

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's downplaying the terrible move Smith made. He basically made a 5-wide sweep in the middle of the first turn after a 1/4 mile, way too late to be establishing early position.


I know he broke his maiden wire-to-wire, however, to say he ran in one of the worst 2yo maiden special weights of the year in CA would be an understatement. Only the now 1-for-10 Tizamagician subsequently won a MSW, and one of the also-rans came back to win a bottom level maiden claimer before going on the bench for several months. The others are all still toiling in the maiden ranks. Honor A.P., coming off his debut in a sprint, was ripe to show more pace on the stretch-out, and probably found himself dominating the race on sheer class judging by his rivals' subsequent records.


I don't see much difference between his trip in the San Felipe and SA Derby. He's a stalker with a strong turn move--and Smith's ride in the Shared Belief played against that style.

At any rate, the comparison was with Art Collector who is clearly more versatile than Honor A.P. having shown winning form at multiple levels, over multiple distances, with different running styles.


I wouldn't have been, Smith made the horse run for over 3/4 of a mile and the colt still finished with good courage. If he was lacking any fitness for the Shared Belief, he probably wasn't afterwards.


This is where I would be concerned. The classic overreaction on the part of the connections. Not only did they work the horse a mere 7 days after that gut-busting trip courtesy of Smith in the Shared Belief, but then they breezed the horse a near bullet in the afternoon over one of the most tiring surfaces in the country. Smith even went so far as to push the horse aggressively on the gallop out, needlessly giving the horse a couple of shoulder taps a few strides before standing up on him at the 7/8 pole.

A good candidate to be over-the-top come Derby day, a la Bolt d'Oro.

I admit that that sweep move was premature; I suppose he could have just let HAP settle. My friend, who also loves HAP, is concerned because she says Mike has been making that move all meet. I haven’t paid attention, I admit. Generally, I believe great athletes in slumps will get out of them, so hopefully Mike will before the Derby.

Fair enough about the maiden...can’t argue there.

About the SF and SD, my point was just that HAP could run closer to the pace or more mid-pack. I get your point about AC, though - I won’t argue. I am confident that HAP is better -but then I feel strongly about him, period.

About fitness, while that’s true about the Shared Belief, overall HAP was kind of spotty in the race. I was encouraged that he closed well even when clearly not at his best.

He had another fantastic work yesterday. Mike was interviewed afterwards in TVG and he said that the colt had been so lightly trained - they left room for him to get fitter, and he did get something out of the race. I think they’re using the works, and he seems to be thriving. I personally think HAP needed those works, and he enjoys them, but I suppose it’s always possible that you’re right. I hope not, lol. We’ll find out soon!