2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

moses · #1 05-17-2019, 10:32 AM

It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

ninetoone · #2 05-17-2019, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

Reminds me of Bernardini - perhaps more about Castellano and the couple of wins coming in than the running style - Bernardini had already showed signs of being able to come off the pace.

I would leave him off at your own risk!

The obvious questions are the pace scenario (who gets the lead tomorrow) and whether or not he can get the extra furlong....

Alabama Stakes · #3 05-17-2019, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Reminds me of Bernardini - perhaps more about Castellano and the couple of wins coming in than the running style - Bernardini had already showed signs of being able to come off the pace.

I would leave him off at your own risk!

The obvious questions are the pace scenario (who gets the lead tomorrow) and whether or not he can get the extra furlong....

Bernardini winning the Preakness was the weirdest experience in that we watched the race at Suffolk Downs downstairs. They showed the track feed. The pan shot that you see for every race is on all the TVs. It’s so loud you can’t hear a thing. We watch the race, bet the winner, and are ecstatic. We give my brother the tickets and roll out of there to beat the traffic since the track was jammed. Never even knew Barbaro broke down. RIP Barbaro

knickslions2 · #4 05-17-2019, 11:58 AM

My two top ones for this race that I will have on tickets are Alwaysmining and Bourbon War. I wont have WOW on any tickets.

moses · #5 05-17-2019, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Bernardini winning the Preakness was the weirdest experience in that we watched the race at Suffolk Downs downstairs. They showed the track feed. The pan shot that you see for every race is on all the TVs. It’s so loud you can’t hear a thing. We watch the race, bet the winner, and are ecstatic. We give my brother the tickets and roll out of there to beat the traffic since the track was jammed. Never even knew Barbaro broke down. RIP Barbaro

I had Bernardini that day too. For the win and in the exacta. I was 20 years old and I think that was the biggest ticket I had ever cashed at the time. I wish I had a bigger bankroll then - I think I only cashed for $200-something total on the race.

ninetoone · #6 05-17-2019, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

I had Bernardini that day too. For the win and in the exacta. I was 20 years old and I think that was the biggest ticket I had ever cashed at the time. I wish I had a bigger bankroll then - I think I only cashed for $200-something total on the race.

I remember having a hundred bucks on Bernardini to win, which was bittersweet, because I was a Barbaro fan and had bet him in the Derby. I know it looks like a redboard, but true. That was the year that the #8 won all three legs of the TC (and I didn't have Jazil in the Belmont).

moses · #7 05-19-2019, 11:05 AM

Anyone have thoughts on Owendale’s trip? I’m hearing and seeing a lot of people that think he lost too much ground going wide — but I didn’t think his trip was that bad. Maybe swung wide a little early but he’s got a running style where you want to get him clear.

Alabama Stakes · #8 05-19-2019, 11:24 AM

Plenty of peeps were ill that he missed second by an inch.....

Dahoss · #9 05-19-2019, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Anyone have thoughts on Owendale’s trip? I’m hearing and seeing a lot of people that think he lost too much ground going wide — but I didn’t think his trip was that bad. Maybe swung wide a little early but he’s got a running style where you want to get him clear.

I wonder what would have happened had he been taken back closer to where Everfast was. He also got beaten to the inside by Signalman, but I feel like if Geroux was a little more aggressive he could have gotten to that spot. All in all, not a bad trip, but a little nuance and he’s 2nd.

casp0555 · #10 05-17-2019, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

It’s been brutally quiet here the past two days.

Anyone have any thoughts on Warrior’s Charge? I’m not crazy about the pedigree with Munnings as the sire...but his last race was a really nice race. I’ve got to think he’s at least got a chance to hit the board.

if he could get the lead ala Oxbow he may be a player but I don't see a 48+ half in this race....Im thinking thats going to be Market King's plan. Im hoping that Anothertwist comes out of the gate gunning for position along with a few others and they keep it up on the backstretch. I'll probably lose but my primary players will be WOW, Bourbon War

, and Owendale, Im off Improbable so again, I will probably lose.

Alabama Stakes · #11 05-17-2019, 11:35 AM

I think that Jose Ortiz is gonna send Anothertwistafate no matter what they tell him.

casp0555 · #12 05-17-2019, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think that Jose Ortiz is gonna send Anothertwistafate no matter what they tell him.

Yep...I agree

moses · #13 05-17-2019, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by casp0555

if he could get the lead ala Oxbow he may be a player but I don't see a 48+ half in this race....Im thinking thats going to be Market King's plan. Im hoping that Anothertwist comes out of the gate gunning for position along with a few others and they keep it up on the backstretch. I'll probably lose but my primary players will be WOW, Bourbon War

, and Owendale, Im off Improbable so again, I will probably lose.

I don’t blame you. I’m mixed between tossing WOW or Improbable. Partly value based but also because I like quite a few of the new horses. I feel like WOW will get overbet on the assumption that he would have finished well if not for the foul - but I’m not so sure. Improbable is the most consistent of these horses so it’s hard for me to toss him...but he’s also running his 3rd race in 5 weeks and I wonder how much the Arkansas and Kentucky derby’s took out of him. Baffert himself does not seem overly confident in him.

I’m 100% with you on Bourbon War and Owendale. I absolutely love Owendale in this race and if he doesn’t hit the board then I won’t be cashing a ticket. All my horizontals are going to single him.