Annual Thoro-Graph Promo (Free)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Anyone that is using them for the first time, or first time in a while, feel free to post questions...

On a sidenote, Steve -- are you or anyone else able to explain the patterns they have where it says like (Top-Pair-Off) (12-12-17) and how on earth we are supposed to use that? I've read the TG explanation of it about 50 times and still don't get it.

It's one of the very few things I don't understand on the sheets -- is it helpful to understand? How can we apply it to capping?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

On a sidenote, Steve -- are you or anyone else able to explain the patterns they have where it says like (Top-Pair-Off) (12-12-17) and how on earth we are supposed to use that? I've read the TG explanation of it about 50 times and still don't get it.

It's one of the very few things I don't understand on the sheets -- is it helpful to understand? How can we apply it to capping?

Ok, lets see the best way to explain this. The first race a horse ever runs is essentially his top. the 2nd race, if he runs a better number, he runs a 'new' top. Lets say the horse moves backward a little, it is considered as an 'off' number from his top. If the horse moves back ALOT, it is considered an 'x'

The horses' effective top is his best number that he run, and the idea is to find horses that will run new tops or find the pattern to where a horse is progessing to his/her top.

a little more clear, I probably just confused it even more

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

On a sidenote, Steve -- are you or anyone else able to explain the patterns they have where it says like (Top-Pair-Off) (12-12-17) and how on earth we are supposed to use that? I've read the TG explanation of it about 50 times and still don't get it.

It's one of the very few things I don't understand on the sheets -- is it helpful to understand? How can we apply it to capping?

Bri,

The "Thoro-Pattern" is a relatively new analysis. It is a "predictor" based on a universe of horse performance data. It basically summarizes what horses that have run the same set of figures might do in this situation based on the pattern.

For instance, you cited a 12-12-17 "set" which was a "Top-Pair-Off" series of performances for that horse. The "Thoro-Pattern" is telling you that historically, when horses run a range of numbers like that (12-12-17/Top-Pair-Off) they do the following in their subsequent start:

TOP: 14% (14% of the time they run a new Top best figure)
PAIR: 26% (26% of the time they Pair up to their best figure)
OFF: 38% (38% of the time the run a figure 1-3 points Off their best fig)
X: 22% (22% of the time they run a figure 3+ points off their best)

In other words, after running a Top-Pair-Off, it is only 14% likely that the horse is now going to run BETTER than that 12 (which is his Top)...

Adding the Pair and Top tells you that there is a total opportunity of 40% (14+26) that the horse will run a 12 or better...

Adding the Off and X together tells you that the horse is 60% likely to run WORSE than a 13 and higher.

If you see there are horses in the race running 8's and 9's, you can feel good that this horse with the 12-12-17 is NOT going to jump up and beat you and you can eliminate him. If the horses in the race have been running 20's and 22's, and you can't see one that has a reason to improve, you can feel good that your 12-12-17 horse is going to run a race that should make him the most likely winner.

Does that give you a better understanding of it?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Bri,

The "Thoro-Pattern" is a relatively new analysis. It is a "predictor" based on a universe of horse performance data. It basically summarizes what horses that have run the same set of figures might do in this situation based on the pattern.

For instance, you cited a 12-12-17 "set" which was a "Top-Pair-Off" series of performances for that horse. The "Thoro-Pattern" is telling you that historically, when horses run a range of numbers like that (12-12-17/Top-Pair-Off) they do the following in their subsequent start:

TOP: 14% (14% of the time they run a new Top best figure)
PAIR: 26% (26% of the time they Pair up to their best figure)
OFF: 38% (38% of the time the run a figure 1-3 points Off their best fig)
X: 22% (22% of the time they run a figure 3+ points off their best)

In other words, after running a Top-Pair-Off, it is only 14% likely that the horse is now going to run BETTER than that 12 (which is his Top)...

Adding the Pair and Top tells you that there is a total opportunity of 40% (14+26) that the horse will run a 12 or better...

Adding the Off and X together tells you that the horse is 60% likely to run WORSE than a 13 and higher.

If you see there are horses in the race running 8's and 9's, you can feel good that this horse with the 12-12-17 is NOT going to jump up and beat you and you can eliminate him. If the horses in the race have been running 20's and 22's, and you can't see one that has a reason to improve, you can feel good that your 12-12-17 horse is going to run a race that should make him the most likely winner.

Does that give you a better understanding of it?

Brian, what he said....

Let me ask you this Steve, how often are you using the Thoro-Pattern numbers? As many know, I have to try and eliminate as much frustration from my handicapping because I am TILT city if I get frustrated. I have found that I rely on them way too much and look back and say to myself "He had a 65% chance to top or pair and I can't even get that" Thus I then get to visit Tilt City

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

Brian, what he said....

Let me ask you this Steve, how often are you using the Thoro-Pattern numbers? As many know, I have to try and eliminate as much frustration from my handicapping because I am TILT city if I get frustrated. I have found that I rely on them way too much and look back and say to myself "He had a 65% chance to top or pair and I can't even get that" Thus I then get to visit Tilt City

TR,

I give them a tacit glance. I'm much more interested in the trainer's pattern under specific circumstances (3rd off layoff; 2nd lifetime start; 3rd start as 3yo, etc..) than I am with the "universe". Since we want horses that are possible to GO AGAINST universal history and hence should be a price, it's not that important to me what "most" horses do as embodied by the Thoro-Pattern.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TR,

I give them a tacit glance. I'm much more interested in the trainer's pattern under specific circumstances (3rd off layoff; 2nd lifetime start; 3rd start as 3yo, etc..) than I am with the "universe". Since we want horses that are possible to GO AGAINST universal history and hence should be a price, it's not that important to me what "most" horses do as embodied by the Thoro-Pattern.

So you use those numbers that are always at the end of the track download. I have NEVER looked at those. I might have to start getting into those a little more.

[sumitas]

Exactly Steve, when you see a horse that you "know" is live, at a price, you have arrived...The ferocious Aq battler Like Now in the Gotham is an example. he was 42-1 , had the form cycle, and won that tough race earlier this year.

[sumitas]

i do prefer the quik sheets...i prefer a horse's more recent performance as opposed to comparing them to a year earlier. the quiks are clear to me and i want to avoid the "paralysis of analysis"...in other words the quiks give me a feel and that's the best tool for me.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

....
....
....
Does that give you a better understanding of it?

very much so, it was sort of what I thought --

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so those three numbers in the "set" are always the horse's last three races, correct?

Yes

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

so if the horse's last three are the (12-12-17), but his best figure was four races back, when he ran a 9.....the percentages only relate to the horse running back to, or better than a 12, right? They don't worry about the best lifetime figure -- just the percentage likelihood that the horse will run back to, or near the 12 (the best figure in the recent three-start set), correct?

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

the 9 would be considered his top and those percentages would be based on 9 being the top. The '12' would be an off and the 17 would be an 'X'

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

[SniperSB23]

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

i'm confused about that as well -- what if the horse ran a 1 three years ago?

Does the "top" percentage speak to running a 1 or a 5? The percentage line won't show that 1 as his "prev top" -- there were several at HAW yesterday like that.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Also, I'm looking at a horse that has: Prev Top 8^3, Pair-Pair-Top (8^3, 8^3, 5^2) and a Top % of 26. Does that mean there is a 26% of improving on the 8 that was the prev top or on the 5 which is the new top?

26% chance that he runs a number better then 5^2

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So when a horse runs in the BC Sprint and is then running in $5K claimers several years later it will still be based on the horse running to his lifetime best?

I 'think' the answer to this is Yes. Steve will be able to confirm