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#1
03-15-2018, 08:45 PM
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But remember,the morning line maker has to anticipate how the public will bet the race. The first factor to consider is the betting publics love of betting the class of the race............especially Gr.1 horses vs. non graded types. History shows they pound the class runners. Secondly,lets try this: Throw out the three horses names for just a second. Horse "A" is a double Grade 1 winner.............the 2yo Champion who just ran giant in a race he badly needed. Horse "B" is nearly undefeated,already a Grade 1 winner.........who just refused to let the Eclipse Award winning Champion by him in the stretch. Horse "C" has looked lights out both times,just galloping...........but those wins came in a Maiden race & AlwOC(in the mud). Also factor in that horses "A"/"B" are the top two rated 3yo's out there. So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ? 
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#2
03-15-2018, 09:13 PM
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This was how the betting closed among the three: Justify 6.20-1 Bolt 7.10-1 McKenzie 9.40-1
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
03-15-2018, 10:36 PM
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I was aware of the Derby finals for pool two when I posted. I'm basing my opinion on how I've seen the public bet over the years in a certain situation. And yes, I think it's a fair point to say that if the public likes Justify in the Derby future 2.........they would make him the chalk @ SA. But I also think the Derby futures speculators are assuming Justify cruises in his final Derby prep.........he may very well,but with his two race resume I just don't think he'd do it as the chalk if Bolt/McKinzie were in the same race. I'll add on here.... I'm pretty sure Justify isn't going to FLA.........but I wonder if he'd be favored against that bunch over the Gulfstream oval ? More: I can see Justify rolling in his final Derby prep...........but I believe in the Derby his lack of seasoning will catch up with him. And I'll be curious how Mr. White(I think he still makes the ML @ SA)sorts out his line.....
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#4
03-16-2018, 01:23 PM
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Though not involved in the ownership directly, Justify breeder John Gunther tweeting that Arkansas Derby is the target..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
03-18-2018, 05:15 PM
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Louisiana Derby
1) Bravazo 7-2 - Gary Stevens 2) Noble Indy 7-2 - John Velazquez 3) Marmello 50-1 - Jack Gilligan 4) Givemeaminit 20-1 - Javier Castellano 5) Retirement Fund 12-1 - Shaun Bridgmohan 6) Hyndford 8-1 - Joe Bravo 7) Snapper Sinclair 9-2 - Jose Ortiz 8) Lone Sailor 20-1 - James Graham 9) My Boy Jack 5-2 - Kent Desormeaux 10) Dark Templar 12-1 - Florent Geroux
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
03-18-2018, 05:29 PM
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"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
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#7
03-18-2018, 06:39 PM
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Solomini to the Wood per Zayats..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
03-27-2018, 07:26 PM
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Back to 10!
FL Derby Audible (Pletcher) Catholic Boy (Thomas) Promises Fulfilled (Romans) Storm Runner (Romans) Strike Power (Hennig) Tip Sheet (Gold) Mississippi (Casse) Millionaire Runner (Mejia) Speed Franco (Delgado) Hofburg (Mott)
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#10
03-27-2018, 07:28 PM
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I believe Speed Franco is out. Hard to believe, as he looked great on paper.
Odd move by Mott rushing Hofburg. Hard to believe Juddmonte is pushing him but I guess anything is possible. Good horse but unlikely to get a major piece here.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#11
03-30-2018, 02:19 PM
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WOOD MEMORIAL (Current)
Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin) Evaluator (Michael Dilger) Firenze Fire (Jason Servis) King Zachary (Dale Romans) Marconi (Todd Pletcher) Old Time Revival (Kenneth Decker) Solomini (Bob Baffert) Vino Rosso (Pletcher) Possible: American Lincoln (Linda Rice) California Night (Mike Maker) Kanthaka (Jerry Hollendorfer
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
03-30-2018, 07:40 PM
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Hybrid Mode
