TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Justify to Oaklawn seems likely. But I’ll trust whatever move that guy makes.

I would think he keeps Justify at SA and ships MAC out. Mac already is in and has more seasoning, Baffert calls audibles all the time so you really never know until he does.

[robfla]

right after the DQ, ( the way I understood the statement on TVG ) Baffert said McKinzie is not racing at SA again before the Derby

[taxicab]

Random Derby Thoughts:
McKinzie: I wonder if he's the type that only does enough to win the race......I don't think the Bolt was ever going to get by him in the San Felipe.
Mississippi/Flameaway: The way trainer Casse handles these two is like night & day,I get that Mississippi is supposed to be the more talented of the two........but in battle I'll go to war with Flameaway nine ways til Sunday.
Strike Power: Scheduled to go in the FLA Derby,If I'm Henning I scoot up North to try the Wood and avoid the clash with Catholic Boy/Promises Fulfilled/Audible.
Audible: He was pretty nervous before the Holy Bull........If Pletcher can settle him down,no telling how good he might run in the FLA Derby.
Steve Asmussen: He has like a gazillion runners on the Trail,sooner or later he's going to have to split them up.
He has Sunland/FG/Keen(?)/OP covered.......but if his stock are all doing well,you have to think AQU/Santa Anita.........or even Dubai might see him saddle one up.
There's no chance Bob Baffert is so upset with the SA stewards DQ of McKinzie that he ships all of his 3yo's out of state for their final prep.........right ?
Wouldn't Justify be the clear favorite in the Wood if he appeared on the scene in NY ?.........just saying.

[MichiganMattA]

Justify is the clear favorite wherever he goes...

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

[RHT2004]

Solomimi feels like thr forgotten horse. I hope he runs huge this weekend. I said early on he could eventually turn the tables on Bolt as distances increased. I like him, and hope he runs well.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

My morning line with close to the 15.43% SA takeout would be:

Bolt 9-5
McK 9-5
Just 9-5
each other horse 50-1

If you're asking about a morning line with zero takeout, I'd make it:

Bolt 2.2-1
McK 2.2-1
Just 2.2-1
each other horse 80-1

(Those "2.2-1"s would obviously look like 2-1 if restricted to the usual ML constraints.)

Justify may have more talent, but Bolt and McKinzie have more seasoning. I can't separate them in the chance to win the next outing, if by some oddity all three were in the same race.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by MichiganMattA

Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The ML is supposed to be how the line maker thinks the public will bet a race..........so here's how I think the public would bet the SA Derby if all three were in:
Bolt.............8-5
McKinzie......2-1
Justify.........5-2

BTW: I would take the 5-2 on Justify for the win wager.

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

[Kasept]

Some Sunland Derby updates: Rampellini-Transgress to pass, per Lukas; Hersh-Mine That Bird winner Reride to UAE Derby.

New York Central, Runaway Ghost, All Out Blitz, Dark Vader head probables.. Baffert certainly sending one..

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

Perhaps(not the jockey part)....
But remember,the morning line maker has to anticipate how the public will bet the race.
The first factor to consider is the betting publics love of betting the class of the race............especially Gr.1 horses vs. non graded types.
History shows they pound the class runners.
Secondly,lets try this:
Throw out the three horses names for just a second.
Horse "A" is a double Grade 1 winner.............the 2yo Champion who just ran giant in a race he badly needed.
Horse "B" is nearly undefeated,already a Grade 1 winner.........who just refused to let the Eclipse Award winning Champion by him in the stretch.
Horse "C" has looked lights out both times,just galloping...........but those wins came in a Maiden race & AlwOC(in the mud).
Also factor in that horses "A"/"B" are the top two rated 3yo's out there.
So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?