7/27: Saratoga (Smithwick, Morrissey)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 21st A.P. 'Paddy' Smithwick (G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Want to try solid but never spectacular Diplomat who may be in right form at the right time for Kate & Bernie Dalton. Import Modem was fairly well rated in UK and might be better than currrent domestic cast. Colonel John brother Mr. Hot Stuff a vulnerable fave, but won this 4 years ago and certainly good enough on best. Andi'amu a sentimental exotics include for Leslie Young who soldiers on with husband Paddy on the arduous mend after devastating spring incident..

Best Value: #6 Diplomat 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Modem 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Charminster 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Andi'amu 20-1 8th


2nd: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

DePaz os 4/7 ($5.63) going turf/dirt, 2/4 second off layoff ($3.75) and drops Annapolis Class to boot. Bobby Ribaudo (Tarquinia) another with positive ROI going lawn to loam ($2.06)..

Best Value: #6 Annapolis Class 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Tarquinia 9-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Bixby Lou 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Marie Joelle 6-1 5th


3rd: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (7f) (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Maddy's Way 4th
Next Best: #3 Jonquil WON ($13.20)


4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hard Hitter 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Swift One 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 At Guard 5-2 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Pirellone 12-1 3rd


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Sweet Offer 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Puttinyouonthenews 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Talk Softly 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Mermaid of Honor 12-1 6th


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Rprettyboyfloyd WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #2 Toohottooevenspeak 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Baratti 4th


OFF/TURF P5 Play:

2: 1-3-6
3: 1-3
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12

3x2x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


OFF/TURF P4 Play:

3: 1-3-5-6
4: 4-7
5: 3-9
6: 2-5-7-11-12

4x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tom's d'Etat 5-2 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #5 Bellamy Way 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Far From Over 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Bodhisattva 12-1 3rd


8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Blue Bahia 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Ancient Secret 2-1 2nd-Up from 3rd
Best Value: #7 Rocky Policy 12-1 3rd-DQ'd from 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Blip n' Th Bye 6-1 6th


9th: 14th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Unbelievable group with 6 exiting victories while accounting for 24 wins combined JUST THIS YEAR. While one or two of the pressers could stay on, feels like you have to play this to collapse with all the pace involved. Potential for wet complicates matters further..

Most Likely: #10 Papa Shot 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1 -
Next Best: #12 Celtic Chaos 6-1 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Candid Desire Late SCR


10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #1 Owesaycanyousee 5th
Next Best: #11 Romantic Music 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Unbridled Adventure WON ($11.40)


P5 Grid:

6: 2-11-12 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
7: 2-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
9: 9-10-12 (A), 5-6-8/SCR (B), - (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
9: 5-6-7-8/SCR-9-10-12 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-11 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x7x3 = 70 x .50 = $35
All A's: 2x1x7x2 = $28 ($14 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Now off the turf except 8..