7/23-24 (SAR): CCA Oaks (G1); Caress

[RHT2004]

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak. I actually think slow paces dont help against horses with great turns of foot, of course I have been saying that to you on message boards for the better part of 15 years so its not a novel opinion.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak.

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

[RHT2004]

Rollo 10pt appreciate the healthy discussion.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

Im with you on AT. You know i love Bob and Mike. I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Im with you on AT. You know i love Bob and Mike. I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

I just took a look at the race...turf marathons have more pace than this race.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just took a look at the race...turf marathons have more pace than this race.

Yup. Impossible for me to believe the plan isn't to make the top. From the rail with an aggressive rider. She makes the lead easily.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

Even here, because of the presumed advantage of lone speed, Elate will probably be an underlay. Furthermore, she is on the short list for "Money Burner of the Year".

Beyond that, looking at the field and the form, I have to think that the main reason that Elate and Berned--who is making a quick turnaround of 15 days--are even in there is to try and earn the all-important Grade 1-placing necessary to bring big $$$ at the November Keeneland sale.

If that is true, Mott's instructions to Ortiz may be tailored towards holding on to a placing rather than trying to take it to Abel Tasman.

Additionally, don't forget that 9f is new terrority for this one as well.

[10 pnt move up]

After looking at this race I really feel like Salty may be pretty tough.

She should get the jump on her only real rival and for some reason I just dont see Baffert being fully cranked when an Alabama win surely seals the 3yo filly division.

Just feels like a two horse race, one horse has the pace advantage and a better price so I would weight most of a multi race play that way.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

as usual you were right, Abel Tasman is just a tricky horse...she can move whenever she wants.

That was interesting ride for sure, seemed like he wanted to make sure he was near the lead but to move like that in th middle, and still hold on is usually the sign of a pretty dang good horses.

Salty had a huge trip, but think she is the lesser talented between these two.

[cakes44]

Mike Smith did everything in his power to get Elate a Grade 1, but it still wasn't enough.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Mike Smith did everything in his power to get Elate a Grade 1, but it still wasn't enough.

That's what you take away from that? Good luck moving forward bud.