NYRA Late Pick 5

[ateamstupid]

I'm dumbfounded. This is what they come back with?

[jms62]

37 K handle yesterday vs. 319 K in Early P5. Will anyone admit to this bet with its restrictions being a really bad idea.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

37 K handle yesterday vs. 319 K in Early P5. Will anyone admit to this bet with its restrictions being a really bad idea.

The next time NYra admits they were wrong will be the first time. There's a first time for everything though. People don't like to be forced to do things. Forcing people to join NYRA bets to play the late pick 5 is one way to make them never join.


I'm still waiting for the "I was wrong about Zenyatta" and "I was wrong about Songbird" from the NYRA know it all. (Alliteration)

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by jms62

37 K handle yesterday vs. 319 K in Early P5. Will anyone admit to this bet with its restrictions being a really bad idea.

It's a really bad idea.....

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

37 K handle yesterday vs. 319 K in Early P5. Will anyone admit to this bet with its restrictions being a really bad idea.

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

Seems to me they are using the late Pik 5 to drum up NYRA bets customers to increase overall ADW play(you cant fool me) . I get the strategy. Will it work, sure, to what degree will see. You have to understand that 750k in handle abroad might equate to 150,000 in handle IN HOUSE. So being wowed by big handle might be Handle envy vs. actual profit.. I dont know the math but it doesnt take a brain surgeon to get that in house wagering is MUCH more profitable then hawking the signal for the sake of big handle figs.

in the end its about profit or at the very least not losing. GP is posting large handles daily and growing them BUT are they making money or just posting big handle figs? I dont know nor do many they are a private company

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not sure what "promote the exclusivity of the wager" means. Was that intended to be tongue in cheek? Today it should be as good as it ever is going to be. Let's check back tomorrow.

1. Will it break 100K
2. Will it be more than the Early P5

My vote is 1) Yes 2) No

If this was open to all I would say this could do 750K today.

So on Day 3, you think it "should be as good as it ever is going to be?" Really? Would you bet on that being true?

Unlike a couple other people in this conversation, you're a bright guy, and you bet, and likely look to beat favorites if the opportunity presents itself. Why aren't you applying the same logic here? Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?

It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it. Just as looking at any race and saying "the favorite's got this one" is probably a bad idea.

[Alabama Stakes]

Sign up for NYRA bets, or else !

[3kings]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Don't you have to give them a chance to promote the exclusivity of the wager? Can't most people sign up for NYRA Bets? The issue is California and NJ cant those are big markets

PA a few months ago couldn't. I haven't looked recently.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So on Day 3, you think it "should be as good as it ever is going to be?" Really? Would you bet on that being true?

Unlike a couple other people in this conversation, you're a bright guy, and you bet, and likely look to beat favorites if the opportunity presents itself. Why aren't you applying the same logic here? Do you think the people behind this decision didn't understand that the bet would handle a fraction of what it could handle? Have you considered all the reasons this might be being done?

It's a complex discussion. Most are. Simply whittling it down to "it would be handling much more the other way" can't be the best way to look at it. Just as looking at any race and saying "the favorite's got this one" is probably a bad idea.

I said that because of all the Graded Stakes races and arguably today is the#2 or at least #3 best day all year on NY circut. I am willing to bet $500 that this bet doesn't exist Jan 1 2018 with the current limitation of NY Bets customers only with no guaranteed minimums. How many horse players that you can recruit are looking at the reduced potential handle vs the difficulty of hitting this and not bothering? Speaking for myself if I had the opportunity I would not play it as it exists. I know I hit this bet about 5% of the time the way I play it and dont partcipate in pools less than 200K nor short fields which has kept me out of Santa Anita this year. But this is my thought process and it is not like I haven't been wrong in the past and certainly will be wrong in the future.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

I said that because of all the Graded Stakes races and arguably today is the#2 or at least #3 best day all year on NY circut. I am willing to bet $500 that this bet doesn't exist Jan 1 2018 with the current limitation of NY Bets customers only with no guaranteed minimums. How many horse players that you can recruit are looking at the reduced potential handle vs the difficulty of hitting this and not bothering? Speaking for myself if I had the opportunity I would not play it as it exists. I know I hit this bet about 5% of the time the way I play it and dont partcipate in pools less than 200K nor short fields which has kept me out of Santa Anita this year. But this is my thought process and it is not like I haven't been wrong in the past and certainly will be wrong in the future.

The bet is actually available anywhere in NY State, and not only to NYRA Bets customers, for what it's worth. If you want to play it out of NY State, you need to bet through NYRA Bets.

Most Saturday's at Saratoga, maybe every one when it doesn't rain, has handled better than Stars&Stripes Day in the past, in case you're interested. Regardless, it's a big discussion, and surely there are pluses and minuses on both sides.

[taxicab]

Here's how it shook out at the OTB yesterday:
The punters saw the P-5 advertised on the Belmont feed,they wanted to play into the bet..........they couldn't.
When the OTB management explained to them exactly why they couldn't play the P-5........it didn't go over well.
It probably wasn't such a great idea to hit heavy with the P-5 advertising on the NY signal,and then not allow most of the betting public to play it.
Just saying.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Here's how it shook out at the OTB yesterday:
The punters saw the P-5 advertised on the Belmont feed,they wanted to play into the bet..........they couldn't.
When the OTB management explained to them exactly why they couldn't play the P-5........it didn't go over well.
It probably wasn't such a great idea to hit heavy with the P-5 advertising on the NY signal,and then not allow most of the betting public to play it.
Just saying.

Wasn't that the point? You keep people standing outside a nightclub and they just have to get in. You tell them if they use a Platinum AMEX they get certain privileges. You tell them they need to bet thru NYRA Bets to have access to this exclusive wager, they watch they get pissed they would have hit the pik 5 and sign up. Mind you NYRA does offer a very good rewards platform.

Like you I am uncertain if it pans out but I cant blame them for trying something

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Wasn't that the point? You keep people standing outside a nightclub and they just have to get in. You tell them if they use a Platinum AMEX they get certain privileges. You tell them they need to bet thru NYRA Bets to have access to this exclusive wager, they watch they get pissed they would have hit the pik 5 and sign up. Mind you NYRA does offer a very good rewards platform.

Like you I am uncertain if it pans out but I cant blame them for trying something

Here's the hook Freddy,a majority of the people at OTB's/race tracks don't play via ADW's.
They are pretty much a cash through the machines lot(for various reasons).
Truthfully I was a bit surprised at the interest shown in the bet yesterday.
I suppose the fact that Belmont had the high quality card had a lot to do with it.......apparently people really love the P-4/5.
I'm only guessing here,but I imagine the bettors just took their P-5 money and shipped it to GP/MTH/WOOD etc. when they couldn't play the wager they wanted.
In terms of the other ADW's, I would guess the players weren't pleased about being denied the chance to play the bet.
I'm thinking the NYRA left a lot of money on the table,and probably didn't score a whole lot of points with some of their more loyal bettors.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Here's the hook Freddy,a majority of the people at OTB's/race tracks don't play via ADW's.
They are pretty much a cash through the machines lot(for various reasons).
Truthfully I was a bit surprised at the interest shown in the bet yesterday.
I suppose the fact that Belmont had the high quality card had a lot to do with it.......apparently people really love the P-4/5.
I'm only guessing here,but I imagine the bettors just took their P-5 money and shipped it to GP/MTH/WOOD etc. when they couldn't play the wager they wanted.
In terms of the other ADW's, I would guess the players weren't pleased about being denied the chance to play the bet.
I'm thinking the NYRA left a lot of money on the table,and probably didn't score a whole lot of points with some of their more loyal bettors.

All true. If you are looking to build an ADW to compliment the best circuit in country you need to look to the future. Yes guys come to OTB's with X dollars to have fun and bet a few hundy for the day, all true. I think Andy is right its a complicated issue that has +/-'s, give it time IMO and see how it plays out

[Kasept]

P4/P5 this year: $1,455,000, P4 alone last year: $1,399,000.

Nobody took their money and stormed off.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

All true. If you are looking to build an ADW to compliment the best circuit in country you need to look to the future. Yes guys come to OTB's with X dollars to have fun and bet a few hundy for the day, all true. I think Andy is right its a complicated issue that has +/-'s, give it time IMO and see how it plays out

And it may be a provincial acknowledgement, but the revenue generated by NYRA Bets ~ because it's considered as 'at the track' wagering ~ substantially benefits the capital improvement, backstretch and breeding programs in New York.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Kasept

P4/P5 this year: $1,455,000, P4 alone last year: $1,399,000.

Nobody took their money and stormed off.

Pretzel Logic.
Here's why:
If Yesterday's P-5 from Belmont was open to everybody throughout North America(all race tracks/OTB/ADW's) the handle on that bet alone would of cracked 2 million minimum.......maybe 3 million.
Now add that number in with the P-4 and there you have it.
And where do you think the money the bettors wanted to bet on the P-5 but couldn't went ?
I think it's a safe guess to say that it was spent on wagers that 95% of the public could actually make.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Pretzel Logic.
Here's why:
If Yesterday's P-5 from Belmont was open to everybody throughout North America(all race tracks/OTB/ADW's) the handle on that bet alone would of cracked 2 million minimum.......maybe 3 million.
Now add that number in with the P-4 and there you have it.
And where do you think the money the bettors wanted to bet on the P-5 but couldn't went ?
I think it's a safe guess to say that it was spent on wagers that 95% of the public could actually make.

You said everyone took their money to other venues. They didn't. The potential of the wager to an unrestricted audience is a different discussion. That wasn't the discussion you initiated, so take your bait and switch tactics elsewhere..