'17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

5/20: Preakness Possibles/Probables

Always Dreaming (Pletcher)
Classic Empire (Casse)*
Lookin At Lee (Asmussen)*
Gunnevara (Sano)*
Royal Mo (Shirreffs)
Three Rules (Pinchin)
Senior Investment (McPeek)
Cloud Computing (Brown)
Conquest Mo Money (Hernandez)
Malagacy (Pletcher)

Strong pace

[10 pnt move up]

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Already we are dismissing the horses? I think these are better than what AP faced.

Malagacy?Gunnevara? Classic Empire? Are those are weak horses? No way.

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I tend to agree. There was so much inconsistency in the preps. That said, the combination of the major trouble that many horses encountered in the race and the difficulty of running with mud spraying toward your eyes leaves room for some of this group to come back and look much better in subsequent tries.

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

Paul, I'm mostly going on what the race chart says. The chart comments took over an hour to show up. They even put up the 13th race before adding the Derby chart. I assume the comments were the result of multiple views of the race.

Here are the ones that I thought had at least some level of excuse: (the added bold emphasis is mine)

GIRVIN, bumped and in tight at the start, settled off the pace, moved up off the rail leaving the far turn, was checked sharply and bumped in traffic near the five-sixteenths then failed to seriously recover.

TAPWRIT was forced into tight quarters by IRISH WAR CRY at the break, steadied off heels in the opening furlong, gained while being brushed between foes near the five-sixteenths, altered to the fence in the lane and kept trying.

GUNNEVERA was jammed up at the break and bumped,regrouped to save ground early, angled back out nearing the backstretch, entered the far turn five wide, brushed with TAPWRIT past the five sixteenths, came sixwide for the drive, was floated out further in mid stretch then failed to seriously to sustain.

HENCE, in tight at the break, settled well back,steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths, swung wide for the drive but failed to muster up the needed kick.

MCCRAKEN was jostled hard soon after the break, recovered and settled four wide, gained quickly when put to pressure leaving the half
milemarker, continued on into the lane, was bumped and carried out in mid stretch then came up empty.

PATCH chased off the rail, edged up between rivals leaving the far turn, was checked and bounced around with GIRVIN near the five sixteenths causing him to lose any chance and came up empty.

IRAP was bumped when a victim of the melee soon after the break, regrouped to chase three and four wide, steadied near the five sixteenths and weakened.

A lot of this is pretty much inevitable in a 20-horse stampede. I don't think any of these trips made it impossible for a superior horse to win. And all of these horses finished 10 or more lengths behind Always Dreaming. But adding these trips to dealing with the barrage of mud in the face that all besides the front runners had to deal with, plus the fact that some of them were probably uncomfortable running on that surface, there's plenty of room IMO for some of these horses to look substantially better next time out.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Other than Classic Empire at the start, what major trouble did horses have in this race? I really didn't see too many bad trips and would love some insight on things I may have missed.

Paul

The following horses got crushed courtesy of Rajiv:

Sooneteer
J Boys Echo
Classic Empire
McCraken
Tapwrit

Classic Empire really ran lights out,deserves all the credit in the world.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think those horses suck in context, really, I do. Classic Empire is the only one with talent but obviously cant put it all together.

Well at the end of the year lets look at the top 5 finishers from the derby, preakness and belmont from this year and 2015 and see who did better.

so far we have in 2016:

always dreaming
looking at lee
battle of midway
classic empire
Practical Joke



vs.

A.P.
Firing Line
Dortmund
Frosted
Danzig Moon
Materiality

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Just feels like a couple years ago, you have a pretty nice horse in the Derby winner and not much else, in fact the crop seems even weaker than AP triple crown year. Its hard to find much to nag about with the Derby winner and he just doesnt have to beat much the next two races.

Quick turnaround is the issue given the barn never does that much.

I think it's too early to tell for 1 reason- the mud.

Probably 3/4 of the trainers will say "my horse hated the mud" and will try again in the Belmont. I think a lot legitimately believe that.

If/when Always Dreaming smokes them on a dry track, then I'll agree

[RHT2004]

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

He's been high on the horse, but who knows who he likes in this race. Why does it matter?
I want a new face, who else is there unless you want to take 4-5 on the Derby winner? I dont and I've never been a Classic Empire fan and he's obviously not a new shooter.
Who are the others that look better? I see no one. Its Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing. No one else wins this race

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

He's been high on the horse, but who knows who he likes in this race. Why does it matter?
I want a new face, who else is there unless you want to take 4-5 on the Derby winner? I dont and I've never been a Classic Empire fan and he's obviously not a new shooter.
Who are the others that look better? I see no one. Its Always Dreaming or Cloud Computing. No one else wins this rsce.

There's quite a few that can win this is always dreaming isn't ready including empire. This group doesn't have much separation my friend

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Besides that Andy likes him why? There are others that look better.

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

isnt he going to be third choice? Wont he be about 8/1?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

Ya saying he is the likely winner is a stretch. I can see him as third betting choice but don't there is much difference in him then many others. Always dreaming is the clear cut favorite but can lose no doubt. Empire had a rough trip as noted so we shall see how much gas is in his tank. I expect Gunnevera and Hence to be much better in this race if its dry.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Even I wouldn't make a stupid comment calling Cloud Computing a "likely" Preakness winner but I'm not sure he isn't the third likeliest winner behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire.

His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

Hey man, great handicapping, I was never into this horse but you nailed him so hope you hit it good.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

...
His Gotham was very strong and he has legit excuses in the Wood. I think he will run very well in Baltimore, and probably outrun his odds, which hopefully can get him there.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Cloud Computing feels like a very likely winner of the Preakness.

Maybe watch his last two races? He isn't much horse...at least yet.