Derby is rapidly approaching

[Plenilune]

Great questions JB. To be honest, I'm more excited about the KY Oaks this year.

1. Who do you think will be the most likely winner? Not sure of likely winner but I want, wish, hope that IWC wins it. I wish he was going to have at least one work over the Churchill track before the race, but hey, I have to trust Motion knows what’s best, right? He prefers to have his horse in a more calm atmosphere pre-KYD, not unlike Casse taking Classic Empire to a more quiet place to train.

2. Who do you think has a good chance of getting a piece of the trifecta at a big price? Hence, Girvin

3. Which horse do you think has the best chance of performing better than its odds? I have no idea, maybe the two listed in question two.

4. Finally, since a large part of handicapping the Derby is narrowing the number of horses from which you make a decision, which of the entrants would you refuse to bet no matter what the odds? All these questions would be easier if we had the post positions already listed, LOL. Classic Empire (my daughter would beat me up for saying that, lol), Patch, a few others. This year’s KYD is so difficult to pick and choose.

I would pose a couple of questions. Is it more exciting and interesting to have a few horses who seem to be a sure shot, or an unpredictably wide open like this year? I like a more narrowed down choice. In a group like this year, are PP’s better or a gut hunch? Going with gut hunch.

[ElPrado]

Sometimes I get hunches, if I do I've learned to listen to them. I have had some big hits at the windows using them. I hit a $400 boxed exacta when 2 horses give me an eye once at TBD. I'm hoping Hence stays healthy this Derby. I also hope he isn't crucified by post position in the Derby. He's my hunch this year.