Derby prep final quarter time

[Secretriat34]

California Chrome // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.5 // :36.69

I’ll Have Another // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.9 // :36.41

Real Quiet .......... // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.4 // :36.56

Always Dreaming // Florida Derby (1st) // 01:47.5 // :36.56


hmmm ? looks like Always Dreaming about racing

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

California Chrome // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.5 // :36.69

I’ll Have Another // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.9 // :36.41

Real Quiet .......... // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.4 // :36.56

Always Dreaming // Florida Derby (1st) // 01:47.5 // :36.56


hmmm ? looks like Always Dreaming about racing

I’ll Have Another // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.88 // :36.39
Same race... Creative Cause 01:47.89....:36.13...5th in the derby
I corrected the elapsed and incremental pace for both horses in the SA Derby using the chart through formulator. The point remains the same...Creative Cause ran the faster final 3/8ths in the SA Derby and should have been the pick using your criteria. Not to mention you are using raw times without regard to the speed of the track.

[Secretriat34]

I'm not picking anything here, just formatting past data in a form that might have meaning.

The time you quote for creative cause..he lost to IHA in SA and In CD, so I'm not sure what your point is

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

I'm not picking anything here, just formatting past data in a form that might have meaning.

The time you quote for creative cause..he lost to IHA in SA and In CD, so I'm not sure what your point is

I stated the point...he lost by a whisker at sa and came home faster in the final 3/8. The data you post is reverse engineering, taking a result ( ky derby ) and using a previous result ( sa derby ) to fit your criteria ( fastest closing time in prep race ) only you ignored a faster closing time. Not only that, you cherry picked derby results that fit your theory, while ignoring countless other years where the horse with the fastest closing time in a prep failed to win the derby.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I stated the point...he lost by a whisker at sa and came home faster in the final 3/8. The data you post is reverse engineering, taking a result ( ky derby ) and using a previous result ( sa derby ) to fit your criteria ( fastest closing time in prep race ) only you ignored a faster closing time. Not only that, you cherry picked derby results that fit your theory, while ignoring countless other years where the horse with the fastest closing time in a prep failed to win the derby.

As much as I appreciate you effort here PCL, I'm afraid that you may be wasting your time explaining relevant, factual data to him.

Closing time, without any regard to pace, track variant, etc. is useless.

But we do have 3 threads to discuss it in, so there's that.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

As much as I appreciate you effort here PCL, I'm afraid that you may be wasting your time explaining relevant, factual data to him.

Closing time, without any regard to pace, track variant, etc. is useless.

But we do have 3 threads to discuss it in, so there's that.

great horses like derby winners can race on any surface or track and win, the only thing that matters is time. how fast can you run 2200 yards in..time and distance.

I dont care about track variant, pace, etc. if you can close the final 1/4 in 22 , your gonna win

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

As much as I appreciate you effort here PCL, I'm afraid that you may be wasting your time explaining relevant, factual data to him.

Closing time, without any regard to pace, track variant, etc. is useless.

But we do have 3 threads to discuss it in, so there's that.

Thanks, fortunately I have time to waste. I simply couldn't stand it anymore.

[Indian Charlie]

I boldly predict that the horse who runs the fastest final time in the Kentucky Derby will be the horse that also wins it.

But I'm sure Dunbar or RTH will dispute that and call me and my reasoning far fetched.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

As much as I appreciate you effort here PCL, I'm afraid that you may be wasting your time explaining relevant, factual data to him.

Closing time, without any regard to pace, track variant, etc. is useless.

But we do have 3 threads to discuss it in, so there's that.

This is beautifully done.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I stated the point...he lost by a whisker at sa and came home faster in the final 3/8. The data you post is reverse engineering, taking a result ( ky derby ) and using a previous result ( sa derby ) to fit your criteria ( fastest closing time in prep race ) only you ignored a faster closing time. Not only that, you cherry picked derby results that fit your theory, while ignoring countless other years where the horse with the fastest closing time in a prep failed to win the derby.

well you seem to be reading a lot more into it than just a post comparing past derby winners and their final 3/8ths times to this years colts.
there is no theory
I simply read the list of this year colts that had closing times under 1:48 and type what i read.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I stated the point...he lost by a whisker at sa and came home faster in the final 3/8. The data you post is reverse engineering, taking a result ( ky derby ) and using a previous result ( sa derby ) to fit your criteria ( fastest closing time in prep race ) only you ignored a faster closing time. Not only that, you cherry picked derby results that fit your theory, while ignoring countless other years where the horse with the fastest closing time in a prep failed to win the derby.

maybe because i was concerned with colts that could WIN at 10f, not close fast and be slower than the winner

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I’ll Have Another // Santa Anita Derby // 01:47.88 // :36.39
Same race... Creative Cause 01:47.89....:36.13...5th in the derby
I corrected the elapsed and incremental pace for both horses in the SA Derby using the chart through formulator. The point remains the same...Creative Cause ran the faster final 3/8ths in the SA Derby and should have been the pick using your criteria. Not to mention you are using raw times without regard to the speed of the track.

I picked derby winners from the article posted above,
creative cause while a good horse LOST to I'll have another.

[Secretriat34]

try not to miss the fact that Always Dreaming ran a faster final prep than 2 time HOY California Chrome.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

try not to miss the fact that Always Dreaming ran a faster final prep than 2 time HOY California Chrome.

Where'd you get your Derby certification?

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Where'd you get your Derby certification?

I took the test and passed

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

try not to miss the fact that Always Dreaming ran a faster final prep than 2 time HOY California Chrome.

You mustn't realize how asinine it is to compare final times from different tracks.

It's almost laughable.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

You mustn't realize how asinine it is to compare final times from different tracks.

It's almost laughable.

They should have run the SA Derby down the hill.