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Old 11-03-2016, 12:56 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,289
Default Songbird

Never seen an undefeated multiple Gr1 winner so summarily dismissed by many big names in this game....okay, I remember Zenyatta

Pundits are quick to point out that she doesn't match up on speed figures.
But how does she match up on pace figures? According to BRISnet figures, she has a huge advantage over everyone at the first call.
Yes I know - the latest race between Beholder and Stellar Wind has nice pace numbers, but that E1 split (which is a 1/2m into the race) is more of an outlier than the norm.
It's entirely plausible that Songbird gets clear after a 1/2m and the other two big players wind up racing one another for the better part of this race. The challenge will come at some point from one or both (and ain't this why we love the sport?) and we may have a war for the ages.
Can't say who wins it, and I won't be betting it (unless Forever Unbridled goes off at a silly price) but I don't think Songbird will just wilt and close up shop when the big girls come calling.
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