A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation...

[Rupert Pupkin]

Is my math right? I'm looking at the map and the electoral count. According to Silver's map, Hillary is ahead 299.8 to 237. But Silver is counting Florida for Hillary. Most polls now show Trump ahead in Florida. Florida is worth 29 electoral votes. So if Trump wins Florida, then it would Hillary 271, Trump 266. Silver has Hillary winning North Carolina. I have seen polls showing Trump ahead in NC. NC is worth 15 electoral votes. So if Trump wins NC, he wins 281- 256. I had thought he needed to win either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. But assuming he wins Florida (and assuming everything else on Silver's map is correct), then all he needs to do is win NC to win the election. Is that correct?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

Edit: I think I am misreading something on his map and forecast. If you check his polls plus forecast (rather than just his polls without forecast), he actually has Trump winning both Florida and NC. Yet it shows the electoral count as Hillary at 296 and Trump at 240.9. So I believe Trump does in fact need to win another big state such as either Pennsylvania or Michigan, or win another few smaller ones that he is trailing in such as Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

[Pants II]

Nate Silver and his ardent supporters are pearl clutching sissies. Look at the comments section of any article he posts.

It's like he panders to femme boys.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Is my math right? I'm looking at the map and the electoral count. According to Silver's map, Hillary is ahead 299.8 to 237. But Silver is counting Florida for Hillary. Most polls now show Trump ahead in Florida. Florida is worth 29 electoral votes. So if Trump wins Florida, then it would Hillary 271, Trump 266. Silver has Hillary winning North Carolina. I have seen polls showing Trump ahead in NC. NC is worth 15 electoral votes. So if Trump wins NC, he wins 281- 256. I had thought he needed to win either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. But assuming he wins Florida (and assuming everything else on Silver's map is correct), then all he needs to do is win NC to win the election. Is that correct?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

Edit: I think I am misreading something on his map and forecast. If you check his polls plus forecast (rather than just his polls without forecast), he actually has Trump winning both Florida and NC. Yet it shows the electoral count as Hillary at 296 and Trump at 240.9.

The way it looks right now, he will win toss up states NC, OH, FL, AZ, NV, IA.

That puts him at 265. he takes NH + the 2nd district of ME and he's there.

That is without winning CO, VA, (both within the MOE) and swinging any of the traditional blue states that are absolutely in play based on post-FBI investigation polls (MI, WI, PA, NM). He gets ANY of these and he is in with or without New England.

Prices are dropping on Trump daily by overseas bookmakers. Currently 65% of the waging is on Trump.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The way it looks right now, he will win toss up states NC, OH, FL, AZ, NV, IA.

That puts him at 265. he takes NH + the 2nd district of ME and he's there.

That is without winning CO, VA, (both within the MOE) and swinging any of the traditional blue states that are absolutely in play based on post-FBI investigation polls (MI, WI, PA, NM). He gets ANY of these and he is in with or without New England.

Prices are dropping on Trump daily by overseas bookmakers. Currently 65% of the waging is on Trump.

Something else to consider - virtually EVERY poll was heavily weight +D to account for the support/popularity of Obama in 2008 and 2012, primarily among the African American community. That support, in early voting is nonexistent thus far, as early voting among African Americans is down 25%.

This is an enormously important development. All polls, particularly national polls, should be eyed cautiously.