Mrs Ogden Phipps Thurs steeplechase

[Flatterer]

Filly and Mare restricted handicap, The Mrs. Ogden Phipps, on tap for the Thursday 8/11 Steeplechase.

Hats off to Race Director Bill Gallo and the NSA for communicating the handicap weights back on July 15 in their weekly Official Notice. This made the difference in the entry box with no surprises about weight assignments.

So this begs the question, are there any significant race results since July 15th that can influence the current weight assignments? Over the jumps, no. But on the flat, yes, #1 Give Us A Reason had a fast flat turf run at Sar on 7/28, an $85K 1X ALW, making her the speed of the race. Carrying 141 low weight is a plus. Jockey Paddy Young is still recovering from a nasty fall in July and it is unclear if he will use her speed early.

Besides flat turf speed, the key to the race is who ran well against the boys in open company. However, the defeated boys have done nothing in subsequent races to distinguish themselves which makes the who beat who comparison murky. Throw in a filly and mare making their US debut makes this race tough to decipher.

Here is a review of the field with weight assignment:

#1) Give Us A Reason (GB). (141) From the video, jockey Paddy Young lost his right iron and fell off in Fair Hill maiden hurdle 5/28 as favorite. Was in 1st place by 2 lengths at the 9th fence in Carolina Cup maiden 4/2 before tiring. Maiden over jumps with excellent turf speed.

#2) Dino Mite (GB). (153) Trainer Ricky Hendriks really likes this one. Very respectable second against the boys in 2016 Radnor Ratings Handicap 5/21. Time was 13 seconds faster than Grade 3 Radnor Hunt Cup. Fourth in Parx flat race for hurdlers on July 10 that had 2 next out winners. Good flat turf speed. Winless over hurdles in US but strong runs against the boys make her a must use in exotics.

#3) Lady Yeats. (155) Top weight making first U.S. start after successful run in England for trainer George Moore. Won an allowance hurdle at Catterick Bridge to open her 2016 campaign. Hard to gauge.

#4) Ivy Mills. (151) Overmatched against the boys finishing seventh in Suffolk Downs Ratings Handicap 7/9. Won Colonial Cup’s Springdale Stakes to clinch 2015 female championship on 11/21. OK flat turf speed.

#5) Willow U. (147) $35,000 flat claim from win at Saratoga in 2015 broke through for maiden victory at 2016 Carolina Cup 4/2, then was tiring fifth in Margaret Currey Henley at Iroquois Steeplechase 5/14. Good turf speed and horse for course.

#6) Sarah Joyce (Ire) (141) 4YO Making first U.S. start after competing recently at Irish tracks. Won maiden hurdle at Clommel in May and then was fourth in allowance hurdle in June. Leading jockey Jack Doyle is under contract with first call for Elizabeth Voss. Has beaten the boys.

#7) So Far Away. (141) Well beaten third in Carolina Cup maiden hurdle for females 4/2 and then was fifth in similar race at Foxfield 4/30. Gets a break in weight but still a maiden on flat and over fences. OK turf speed.

#8) Barbara’s Smile. (149) Won Parx Ratings Handicap beating the boys on 7/12. Beaten two times by #4 in 2015. OK flat turf speed.

#9) Secret Reward. (147) Won her 2016 debut in maiden hurdle for fillies and mares at Foxfield 4/30. Tiring fourth in Margaret Currey Henley at Iroquois 5/14. Slow flat turf speed.

#10) Get Ready Set Goes. (141) 4YO Second in Atlanta allowance hurdle restricted to females 4/23 and beat the boys in winning High Hope open maiden hurdle 5/22. Slow flat turf speed. Gets lightweight assignment.

Projected order of finish:

2-1-6-10-4-5-8-3-9-7

For betting purposes:
A) 2-6
B) 1-10
C) ??????

Tread lightly in this wide open affair.

[Flatterer]

#10 Get Ready Set Goes made a nice run after the last fence to win. #9 Secret Reward gutted out 2nd after tracking the pace. #5 Willow U also closed well after the last. #1 Give Us a Reason tired badly.

#2 Dino Mite declared a non-starter because the assistant starter was still holding on when the flag dropped. For flag start races, I do not like an assistant starter holding the bridle. I have not seen this procedure used at other NSA meets. Got lucky with the non-starter ruling because it looked like Dino Mite was going to refuse at to start.

I'll post another analysis for the jump races next week.

Hope this helped someone.....price dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 in the last flash on #10.

Good luck!!

[Flatterer]

Odds dropped on #10 because of #2 scratch.....no late $$$$