Offshore Ky Derby futures

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

25-1 on Outwork seems high. I was thinking 15-1.

Was originally thinking the same thing. However, combine the fact that the Wood Memorial just has not produced any big Derby players in the last decade and Outwork just beat Trojan Nation (81-1) with a gap of three back to the rest, this was probably just another Wood with some nice Grade 3 horses.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Was originally thinking the same thing. However, combine the fact that the Wood Memorial just has not produced any big Derby players in the last decade and Outwork just beat Trojan Nation (81-1) with a gap of three back to the rest, this was probably just another Wood with some nice Grade 3 horses.

Realizing that I've been on this horse since his return to the track, I'm admittedly a bit biased.

That being said, Wood winners always get ridiculously overbet in the Derby, regardless of it's recent history of producing duds. Coupled with the fact that he's a Pletcher prospect, and that visually he towers over this field and has improved each time out, I think 15-1 would be generous - and believe he will be closer to the 10/12-1 range if not lower by post.