The Sheets

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I have a few questions, since I only use DRF or Timeform ---

The TDN has posted the Thoro-graph sheet for the Derby Top 20: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/derby-top-20/

I saw where Destin made a huge jump in performance, which is why I gather that they opted to give him so much time between the TBD and the Derby, but can you show me an example of what is meant by figures pairing (or something like that)?

Would a horse's form cycle like Outwork be a positive form cycle or is that too much of a jump in form? What is considered a "safe" rise in form or is any rise in form negated by a layoff? Thanks!

Sighty..

Yes.. Destin took the time post-Tampa because Twin Creeks owner Steve Davison, who bought the Ragozin business a couple years ago, believes in time off after significant forward moves. This is a little extreme though in terms of having a horse stretch from 8.5f to 10f after a 10 week layoff.

A good example of pairing up is on Gun Runner's form. He debuted with a 7 in the CD MDN win and paired it up twice with another 7 in the KEE ALW and 6.5 in the KY JC. He made a very healthy forward move in his first start at 3 to a 5.5 in the Risen Star and paired up with a 5 in the LA Derby. (A pair up is performance within a point in either direction). He is poised in a textbook pattern for a 3yo for a forward move in the Derby. The question is can it be enough of an improvement to win or contend?

Outwork is a perfect example of a horse that Thoro-Graph users (and management) is going to like where the general betting public's opinion is mixed (or negative). The forward move from the Sam Davis (6.75) to Tampa Bay Derby (2.75) is a significant one, but he backed that improvement up with the 1.5 in the Wood. To that end, as a lightly raced horse, he's still on the improve.

TG likes horses that have yet to regress on the theory that they improve on a range before they plateau (or until the stress of the efforts cause them to move backwards for a spell until they recover). An example of a horse that already has done a lot of developing is Suddenbreakingnews. He's gone from the turf debut 15.75 and dirt second start 14, down through 11's, 9.5/Springboard, 3/Southwest, 4.25/Rebel, 1.25/AR Derby.

This is a horse who has almost never gone backwards as even the Rebel has a traffic issue to consider. The question TG players have to answer with him is can he run the race he did in the AR Derby (or even improve) or is this a spot where all the progress (and 3 week turnaround) catch up with him? In TG parlance, you say "Is a major contender for a big piece with a pair up, win candidate with any improvement, bred top and bottom for the Classic trip, will be a big price" and most likely use him.