4/9-10 (AQU): Wood, Carter (G1's), Gazelle (G2), more; Top Flight (G3)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Early pace is irrelevant?
You're better then that.

The pace was very strong, but that was an absolutely atrocious horse race. They crawled home and Matt King Coal was beaten just over 2 lengths contesting that pace. The likelihood of Outwork contesting what shapes up as a strong Derby pace and holding off a good group of closers in minuscule.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The pace was very strong, but that was an absolutely atrocious horse race. They crawled home and Matt King Coal was beaten just over 2 lengths contesting that pace. The likelihood of Outwork contesting what shapes up as a strong Derby pace and holding off a good group of closers in minuscule.

I would normally agree, but his Tampa race was fast enough... So there is something to get back to. Today was 4th career race, first going 9, first time in slop. I'm sold on him.

[RHT2004]

Plus I need a new Derby horse. I'm breaking up w/ Mor Spirit.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Plus I need a new Derby horse. I'm breaking up w/ Mor Spirit.

Wise choice.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I would normally agree, but his Tampa race was fast enough... So there is something to get back to. Today was 4th career race, first going 9, first time in slop. I'm sold on him.

The Tampa Bay Derby is looking like a key prep at least for the east coast horses. Considering that both the Wood winner and the Bluegrass winner were losers in the Tampa Bay Derby, wouldn't that move Destin way up?

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The Tampa Bay Derby is looking like a key prep at least for the east coast horses. Considering that both the Wood winner and the Bluegrass winner were losers in the Tampa Bay Derby, wouldn't that move Destin way up?

Not necessarily . They didn't run bad cause Destin ran well

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The Tampa Bay Derby is looking like a key prep at least for the east coast horses. Considering that both the Wood winner and the Bluegrass winner were losers in the Tampa Bay Derby, wouldn't that move Destin way up?

Destin would be in my top 5 right now. Only concern is he just loved Tampa. His 1st start this year at Gulf was bad. FG race wasn't much better.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Destin would be in my top 5 right now. Only concern is he just loved Tampa. His 1st start this year at Gulf was bad. FG race wasn't much better.

I want to love Destin because I made a big bet on All Others in Pool 2. But I hate the 8-week gap they are taking with him. And especially with a horse that's run just 5 times and never more than a mile-and-a-sixteenth. How is that horse going to be ready for the 20-horse stampede at the start of the Derby? 8 weeks without a race. That's a sizable chunk of a 3-yr-old's life.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The Tampa Bay Derby is looking like a key prep at least for the east coast horses. Considering that both the Wood winner and the Bluegrass winner were losers in the Tampa Bay Derby, wouldn't that move Destin way up?

Nah. Outwork won a terrible Wood by attrition and Brody's Cause ran a conspicuously bad race at Tampa. Either he was short for it or hated the track or both. Destin might be nice, but neither of yesterday's results says much of anything about him.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The pace was very strong, but that was an absolutely atrocious horse race. They crawled home and Matt King Coal was beaten just over 2 lengths contesting that pace. The likelihood of Outwork contesting what shapes up as a strong Derby pace and holding off a good group of closers in minuscule.

Thank you for posting this. I was thinking of how to reply to the same post. Life and death to defeat an 80-1 shot who is still a maiden is not exactly a ringing endorsement Kentucky Derby contender.