Congrats (again) JMS on GP P6

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It remains divisive or at least still is a difficult, contentious equation..

$1,000,000, 2,000,000 -- or whatever rolling average you want to use -- held out of circulation for months is unarguably a big negative for horseplayers and the sport at large in terms of handle/churn.

The other issue on the negative side is the growth of the pool on the backs of small bankroll players that will then be very much against it when it comes time for forced distribution versus the barracudas and amalgamated pool plays.

In the middle is an interesting group approaching it like Paul, Jim and my late friend Chet who snare consos small to Saturday's bonus-sized on medium-large investments.

Very complex discussion.

I will only play it when there is 2 million + as I feel that attracts enough money that 70% of the daily pool is still more than I am going to get in Pick 5's especially this time of the year... It has been at that level since Feb 26th for 12 racing days. The average daily pool since then is 508 K. It is a rare Pick 5 that pulls that type of number and I can certainly not get that this time of the year. 7 out of 12 days the Pick 6 conso has paid more than 10 k of those 7 5 have paid more than 25 K. Now for the equalizer.... 5 of 12 days have paid less than 3 K and 2 less then 410.

I am hunting for a 5 figure score. A $500 ticket can get some incredible coverage especially if you narrow a couple legs to 2 or 3. The beauty of this is that at .20 the amount of coverage I can get makes it EXTREMELY risky for a big syndicate. Say they are coming in with 20 K... They would have lost money half the time.... Even on closing day..... A couple favorites and they will be underwater... I love this but my line in the sand is 2 million to get involved other than that I won't touch....

[Alabama Stakes]

Good discipline . I like that you played the next day after the hit. The money is still in there. You're running good so play . Like running the same play in hoops or football , till they stop you.

[Easy Goer Otis]

This is tremendous! Well done, jms. Wow!

Cheers,

Otis

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

I will only play it when there is 2 million + as I feel that attracts enough money that 70% of the daily pool is still more than I am going to get in Pick 5's especially this time of the year... It has been at that level since Feb 26th for 12 racing days. The average daily pool since then is 508 K. It is a rare Pick 5 that pulls that type of number and I can certainly not get that this time of the year. 7 out of 12 days the Pick 6 conso has paid more than 10 k of those 7 5 have paid more than 25 K. Now for the equalizer.... 5 of 12 days have paid less than 3 K and 2 less then 410.

I am hunting for a 5 figure score. A $500 ticket can get some incredible coverage especially if you narrow a couple legs to 2 or 3. The beauty of this is that at .20 the amount of coverage I can get makes it EXTREMELY risky for a big syndicate. Say they are coming in with 20 K... They would have lost money half the time.... Even on closing day..... A couple favorites and they will be underwater... I love this but my line in the sand is 2 million to get involved other than that I won't touch....

Nice.. There's no arguing the stratagem and even the takeout quotient is neutralized with all the extraneous coverage at this juncture.

I completely understood going after the consos as explained by Chet 2 years ago, Paul Matties and you, et al.. The debatable question out there is whether this concept is good for the sport and players in general. Based on some of the info involved that you're providing, maybe it can be said it's OK for certain sized players at certain times in it's cycle. Overall?

[Alabama Stakes]

Do you look at it like " can they hit it today ? " before you decide on weather to play as an alternative way of thinking . Or something along the lines of 4 bad faves, I'm in . 4 faves who look vey tough , I'm out ??

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Do you look at it like " can they hit it today ? " before you decide on weather to play as an alternative way of thinking . Or something along the lines of 4 bad faves, I'm in . 4 faves who look vey tough , I'm out ??

Since the distribution date is less than a month away and the shots remaining are limited I take every one... I am not sure what I would do say if there was no distribution date in sight AND I didn't have a cushion....

[ryonker1]

Hi all

What's the consolation payout each day/percentage wise? To all your points- particularly on the part of keeping a large amount out of circulation.....I'm trying to get my head around the cash flow here.

Is it each day 70% out/15% added to jackpot/15% to 'the house'?

thanks
Ron

[robfla]

Originally Posted by ryonker1

Hi all

What's the consolation payout each day/percentage wise? To all your points- particularly on the part of keeping a large amount out of circulation.....I'm trying to get my head around the cash flow here.

Is it each day 70% out/15% added to jackpot/15% to 'the house'?

thanks
Ron

70 percent of the pool after 20% takeout is returned to those with the most winners and 30 percent goes into the carryover.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by jms62

I will only play it when there is 2 million + as I feel that attracts enough money that 70% of the daily pool is still more than I am going to get in Pick 5's especially this time of the year... It has been at that level since Feb 26th for 12 racing days. The average daily pool since then is 508 K. It is a rare Pick 5 that pulls that type of number and I can certainly not get that this time of the year. 7 out of 12 days the Pick 6 conso has paid more than 10 k of those 7 5 have paid more than 25 K. Now for the equalizer.... 5 of 12 days have paid less than 3 K and 2 less then 410.

I am hunting for a 5 figure score. A $500 ticket can get some incredible coverage especially if you narrow a couple legs to 2 or 3. The beauty of this is that at .20 the amount of coverage I can get makes it EXTREMELY risky for a big syndicate. Say they are coming in with 20 K... They would have lost money half the time.... Even on closing day..... A couple favorites and they will be underwater... I love this but my line in the sand is 2 million to get involved other than that I won't touch....

This has been my argument against those saying it's a "bad bet"... once the carryover reaches 7 figures, the whales covering extreme combinations mean the "reasonable" combos pay more than fair.

Congrats on an outstanding, legendary score!!