American Pharoah...

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Comparing Orb to AP is ridiculous.

Why?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Why?

A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?

The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by JJP

The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.

Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.

I think he wins TC I think CJ's fig is real not BSF. I was sure Big Brown would have won TC as well and Smarty Jones to boot so what do I know

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I think he wins TC I think CJ's fig is real not BSF. I was sure Big Brown would have won TC as well and Smarty Jones to boot so what do I know

What was CJ's fig Freddy?

Smarty should have won, but was clearly a target and has his chances sabotaged.

Big Brown? I would have been very surprised had he hit the board.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Nobody with any functioning gray matter thought he was going to win the Triple Crown. In fact, most people on here seemed to think his Derby win would be his last major win.

I certainly didn't, and maybe you didn't either. But plenty of somebodies did, betting Orb down to 3-5 in the Preakness. The media certainly bought the hype hook, line & sinker.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by JJP

The hype, for one thing. After the Derby, the public and media both talked as if the Triple Crown was a foregone conclusion. What price did Orb go off at in Baltimore, 3-5?

I wonder if the rioters will riot outside Pimlico.

no more curfew. no riots or protests since charges brought vs the police.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

A better question is how you can compare Orb to AP.

What possible similarities do they have besides winning the Derby?

Name trainer?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?

Won in impressive fashion?

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Name trainer?
Who isnt a name trainer in the Derby?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?
Orb didnt have NEAR the hype AP did nor should he have

Won in impressive fashion?
Orb won a staggerfest after suicidal early pace

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?
AP made his trip Orb inherited his hardily comparable

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?
Depends who shows up


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

Just saying

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Just saying

Your equating Baffert/Shug to say Motion? ok

Orb had TONS of hype into the Derby Freddy.

The beyers are only a couple points different, one had a fast pace, one had a very moderate pace.

He is going to be 3/5.

We can check back after the race, he is a horrible bet at his odds of winning and they are not 3/5.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Name trainer?

Favorite, very well regarded coming into the Derby and delivered?

Won in impressive fashion?

Had cake trips that hindered several in the field?

Will be 3/5 in their next start when they probably dont deserve to be any thing better than 7/5?


Just saying, nothing in common at all.

You also left off that they both breathe oxygen, eat grassy stuff, poop, pee, drink water, have four legs, at least partial tails, have two eyes, etc..

I stand corrected.

[blackthroatedwind]

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

His durability is a serious question.

[RHT2004]

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses, maybe Dortmund being the exception. Yes he had a clear trip, but he was also wide throughout the race so those things X each other out. I think he dominates the Preakness and probably losses the Belmont for a lot of the reasons BTW mentioned. He was hurt, and they are asking an awfully lot of him right now. I do think he will be sent to the lead in the Belmont and in Smarty Jones like fashion will open up turning for home. No way this jockey will play games after last year. But all of the racing will catch up to him. I want him to do it. I like the owner, he has had some great horses and has been unlucky. I also think the GOAT deserves it, Im just not sure its in the cards. Its kinda funny because everyone says how good/deep this crop is. And AP won and it feels like because he didn't win in hand by 10 lengths that its not good enough.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses.....

I rest my case.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Based on what I saw he did have an off day and still won because he is that much better then these horses, maybe Dortmund being the exception. Yes he had a clear trip, but he was also wide throughout the race so those things X each other out. I think he dominates the Preakness and probably losses the Belmont for a lot of the reasons BTW mentioned. He was hurt, and they are asking an awfully lot of him right now. I do think he will be ,sent to the lead in the Belmont and in Smarty Jones like fashion will open up turning for home. No way this jockey will play games after last year. But all of the racing will catch up to him. I want him to do it. I like the owner, he has had some great horses and has been unlucky. I also think the GOAT deserves it, Im just not sure its in the cards. Its kinda funny because everyone says how good/deep this crop is. And AP won and it feels like because he didn't win in hand by 10 lengths that its not good enough.....

I don't perceive there being any negativity towards his performance, only a bit of reality that he isn't a super horse.

Perhaps this will play out to be like a Captain Bodgit, Silver Charm & Free House Triple Crown season. (With Materiality being the bad-trip spoiler in the Belmont )

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

I'm with you. Some "super horse" would have opened up big time in the stretch. I had AP and won so that was great, maybe not as great as Burch, but count me as less impressed by AP after the Derby than before.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.

Sorry 38 years, time flies!!