5/2 (CD): 141st Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 Graded Stakes Undercard

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The draw for me affects Upstart negatively the most. I'm likely not using at all now, where I had him underneath in the Tri/Super. Dortmund is really up against it with quicker speed directly outside him in Stanford and Firing Line looking to cross over, and speed inside of him in Materiality. He's a huge lumbering sort that takes a bit longer to get going, and with almost certain contact, may be taken off his game early. He's no longer a win candidate for me.

AP is the logical favorite, and baring something unforeseen - should be the easy winner. The two best closers in my book - International Star and Danzig Moon - will be played vertically underneath AP, along with Dortmund, Materality, Firing Line, Frosted, and Tencendur.

Wasn't the pace that Stanford set in New Orleans fairly slow? I have a photo from the Santa Anita Derby and Dortmund was taking the lead a few strides out from the gate. Of course you can't bet them all, but a lot is being said about Dortmund's size and he hasn't really shown to me to be a horse who has difficulty getting his legs underneath him. Materiality is very large as well. I was a bit torn with Materiality and Carpe Diem, but I definitely don't like where they drew.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Wasn't the pace that Stanford set in New Orleans fairly slow? I have a photo from the Santa Anita Derby and Dortmund was taking the lead a few strides out from the gate. Of course you can't bet them all, but a lot is being said about Dortmund's size and he hasn't really shown to me to be a horse who has difficulty getting his legs underneath him. Materiality is very large as well. I was a bit torn with Materiality and Carpe Diem, but I definitely don't like where they drew.

The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day and even slower at GP in the Islamorada Handicap the race previous where he led every step to the stretch, tired and basically set the table for Materality (subsequently DQ'd and placed 6th). Dortmund clearly doesn't need the lead, but in my opinion is surrounded by horses that are quicker out of the gate than he, thus taking a short price on what would appear to be most assuredly a compromising post isn't for me - that's all.

All that said, he'll probably win by 10 given my recent capping form

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day and even slower at GP in the Islamorada Handicap the race previous where he led every step to the stretch, tired and basically set the table for Materality (subsequently DQ'd and placed 6th). Dortmund clearly doesn't need the lead, but in my opinion is surrounded by horses that are quicker out of the gate than he, thus taking a short price on what would appear to be most assuredly a compromising post isn't for me - that's all.

All that said, he'll probably win by 10 given my recent capping form

No, I'm sure that will be Mubta-whatever because I don't like him at all.

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw Quotes
Darren Rogers
Apr 29 at 6:56 PM

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Post position 1, morning line 50-1) – Jim Cassidy (trainer) – “It is what it is. It’s a tough spot but what are you going to do? My plan, to be honest with you, is still to take hold and sit in the second flight. I’ve got to think Carpe Diem and a couple of those others are going to go but I don’t want to go with them, or sit behind. That’s what I’m going to talk to Elvis [Trujillo] about.”

Carpe Diem (Post position 2, morning line 8-1)/Materiality (Post position 3, morning line 12-1)/ Stanford (Post position 11, morning line 30-1)/Itsaknockout (Post position 13, morning line 30-1 – Todd Pletcher (trainer) – “In a perfect world, I would have liked to have been more toward the middle with Carpe Diem (and Materiality). But he’s a good gate horse and he’ll have to get away from there quickly. That’s pretty much true whatever your draw is in this race. Materiality is a good gate horse, too, so if he gets out he ought to be fine. My other two (Stanford and Itsaknockout), I like their draws. Good spots right in the middle.

Tencendur (Post position 4, morning line 30-1) – George Weaver (trainer) – "I would have preferred to be outside further. The further you are inside the more subject you may be to some bottlenecking going into the first turn. It's very hard to predict everything that's going to happen after that gate opens. It's an OK post. We'll deal with it."

Danzig Moon (Post position 5, morning line 30-1) – Mark Casse (trainer) –- “Post position five isn’t the middle but with this post position we can sit in the back of the pack and come from behind. We’re not unhappy with the post.”

Mubtaahij (Post position 6, morning line 20-1) – Michael de Kock (trainer) – “I suppose we’ve got to be happy with that. One isn’t a good one, 20 isn’t a good one. I said we’d be happy with seven or eight and we drew six so we’ve got to be happy.”

El Kabeir (Post position 7, morning line 30-1) – John Terranova (trainer) – “I’m fine with it. I think we drew great. We got speed on the inside of us. We’ve got speed outside of us. I actually glad about the post because we’d be in a position not to lose ground hopefully on the first turn or get pushed out. We’ll sit back and see how the race unfolds from there.”

Dortmund (Post position 8, morning line 3-1)/American Pharoah (Post position 18, morning line 5-2) – Bob Baffert (trainer) –Dortmund -- "He's a horse that gets going. He's quick. He'll be right there in the mix. It will be tougher to watch one in there, so whichever one breaks the best I'm going to key on him." American Pharoah -- "It's OK. It's good. Anything but being down there. We talked about being on the outside. I feel like 20 would have been great for me. Out there at least you have a little bit of an option. He's fast. American Pharoah is fast.” Jockey Victor Espinoza on post 18 -- "I love my post, 18. I feel lucky with that number.”

Bolo (Post position 9, morning line 30-1) – Carla Gaines (trainer) – “I like it. Not too far inside, not too far out. We get options this way.”

Firing Line (Post position 10, morning line 12-1) – Simon Callaghan (trainer) – “I’m very happy with the draw. I believe we’re last to load, which is an advantage. And with the No. 10, you’ve got options.”

International Star (Post position 12, morning line 20-1) – Mike Maker (trainer) – “It was pretty straightforward. I’m glad we didn’t have the one but that’s about all. I don’t think we’ll be forwardly placed so [the horses around us] are really not an issue.”

Keen Ice (Post position 14, morning line 50-1) – Dale Romans (trainer) – "It's one of the best spots of all of them. It might have been what I would have picked if I could.''

Frosted (Post position 15, morning line 15-1) – Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) – “We’re very happy with it. We’re the first one in the auxiliary gate, so we have a little room at the break. There’s plenty of speed outside us; there’s plenty of speed inside us. The one hole is just the one that you feared. Other than that, we’re fine and we like the post.”

War Story (Post position 16, morning line 50-1) – Tom Amoss (trainer) – “I was a little ambivalent but my daughter texted me and said that 16 has had more success than any other post so I’m excited about that. I’m not worried about the post at all.”

Mr. Z (Post position 17, morning line 50-1) – D. Wayne Lukas (trainer) – “I love it. Great post. Just being out there, not being in the gate very long, being able to just pop in there and leave. That's a good spot, great spot.''

Upstart (Post position 19, morning line 15-1) – Rick Violette (trainer) – “The way I look at it is: my job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz it’s the best spot in the gate. My job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz that it’s the exact post position we wanted.”

Far Right (Post position 20, morning line 30-1) – Ron Moquett (trainer) – “For us it is actually OK because our running style won’t be affected. We’ll let everybody do that voodoo that they do and we’re just going to sit behind and watch them and come get them later.”

[Dunbar]

I loved this:

Upstart (Post position 19, morning line 15-1) – Rick Violette (trainer) – “The way I look at it is: my job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz it’s the best spot in the gate. My job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz that it’s the exact post position we wanted.”


Very funny, and wise, too.

--Dunbar

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by Kasept

War Story (Post position 16, morning line 50-1) – Tom Amoss (trainer) – “I was a little ambivalent but my daughter texted me and said that 16 has had more success than any other post so I’m excited about that. I’m not worried about the post at all.”

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day

I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

Got ya, and I totally agree on all counts.

A couple of early races were super fast early for the level, but all in all even if the track was playing a bit "fast," it was definitely not as fast as you'd often expect from a track on a big day. Maybe a few lengths faster than normal, but still slow in relation to what you see in some other places.

[TouchOfGrey]

Pletcher's Stanford 50/50 for Derby

[ateamstupid]

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.