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  #1  
Old 04-29-2015, 09:23 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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I think he will be overbet and will not be using him. That said, like Dellinger I hope Am Pharoah and/or Dortmund end up on the rail.

--Dunbar
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  #2  
Old 04-29-2015, 09:53 AM
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jwkniska jwkniska is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
I think he will be overbet and will not be using him. That said, like Dellinger I hope Am Pharoah and/or Dortmund end up on the rail.

--Dunbar
I agree 100%
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  #3  
Old 04-29-2015, 09:59 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.
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  #4  
Old 04-29-2015, 10:35 AM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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Betting against, but not because I think he can't be a star
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  #5  
Old 04-29-2015, 10:43 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.
There will be millions of dollars bet on horses because people like their name or color or 14 is their lucky number, that will counter balance the hype substantially. Remember on paper he is at least the 2nd most likely winner and has such pitching him to win is a dubious prop. Is he not an "A" on every smart handicappers vertical wager? Would you ever want to lose a pick 3/4/6 because you pitched AP because of hype and deflated odds?

I wouldnt bet him to win either regardless if I think he wins by 6
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  #6  
Old 04-29-2015, 12:38 PM
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DaTruth DaTruth is offline
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Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.
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  #7  
Old 04-29-2015, 02:07 PM
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SundayStar SundayStar is offline
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if you're leaving him off, all i can say is good luck.
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  #8  
Old 04-29-2015, 02:13 PM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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I'm not leaving him off the top, but would be much better off if he runs 3rd.
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  #9  
Old 04-29-2015, 04:48 PM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaTruth View Post
Going against. I just don't see how sitting off a hopeless longshot early in the Arkansas Derby means the "can he rate?" box gets a check mark. Let's see what happens when he rates behind Dortmund and engages him on the far turn.
Sitting in the clear off a 45.4 half doesn't get a check mark from me either.Sure he relaxed. Didn't expect him to be running off into those fractions.
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  #10  
Old 04-29-2015, 04:55 PM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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I love the post he drew.
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  #11  
Old 04-29-2015, 04:41 PM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.
My thoughts exactly. I am ordering a Frosted shake.
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  #12  
Old 04-29-2015, 06:03 PM
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pointman pointman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Not using him on top. I'm going to let him run a race in the afternoon that matches the accolades he seems to earn in the morning before I drink the Kool-Aid.
I agree with you, Nick. I also think that Dortmund deserves to be favored over AP.
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