2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[jnunan4759]

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tywizard

There are 19 listed entries and two shouldn't even be listed (imperia and Ocean Knight)...Even if I make the 20th horse 99-1 this still comes to 143%.

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

You want that number to be small, not big. The amount above 100% is closely related to track take, but not quite the same. It doesn't have anything to do with the number of horses, but every horse that might be in the race should be included in the line.

(The number 143% corresponds to a 30% track takeout.)


Here's what you do to calculate that number if you have an odds line.

1. Convert each horse's odds to a "fair" win probability. For example, if a horse is even money, to be "fair" it should win 50% of the time. So the "fair" win probability is 50%.

If a horse is 3-1, then the "fair" win probability is 25%. (because with 3-1 odds, if you win 1 out of 4 times, you'll break even.

The general rule is this:
if the odds are "fair", then WinProbability = 1/(1+Odds)

2. Add up all the "WinProbabilities". If the line is completely fair, it would add to 100%. If the odds have been set lower than fair odds, then the total of the WinProbabilities will be greater than 100%. The 17.5% track takeout at CD will cause the "WinProbabilites" (calclulated from a race's closing odds) to sum to 121%

When a futures line is as big as 143%, it's pathetic. It's like betting into a 30% track take. (And the fact that Bovada's didn't include every possible entrant makes it even worse.)

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

One Lucky Dane out of Derby after being vanned off the track today.

He is going for radiographs.